Author • Historian • Political Commentator • Host of 'The David Chapman Show' • Baseball Fanatic • DM for Contact • Opinions Are My Own •
Moline, Illinois
Joined March 2015
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David D. Chapman retweeted
In 2022 the Final Genric Ballot was R+2.7
Republicans gained 9 seats.
The Democrats only need a net gain of 3 seats.
The RCP aggregate is D+8.3 and the RCP Generic ballot has never missed by more than 3.7pts.
The average miss is 2.3pts.
Democrats are going to retake the house
David D. Chapman retweeted
I went back 3 MI Senate Races on RCP. 2024, 2020, & 2018.
The aggregate understates MI Democrats on average by 0.2pts.
It understates Republicans by 2.7pts.
With the new Marist poll added to RCP,
🟦El-Sayed 48%
🟥Rogers 46%
But with the average miss
🟥 Rogers 48.7% (+0.5)
🟦 El-Sayed 48.2%
David D. Chapman retweeted
There is no “to the Right” of Trump. It’s not real. It’s purely an exercise in abstraction.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
🚨 TEXAS EARLY VOTING — MONTGOMERY COUNTY
🔴 Trump won by 45.5 points in 2024.
🗳️ 2026 Day 1: 13,568 votes
📊 Compared with previous Day 1 totals:
• 123.0% of 2022 midterm (+23.0%)
• 82.1% of 2024 presidential (−17.9%)
📈 DAY 2 opening hour (8–9 AM):
• Oct 19: 1,337 check-ins
• Oct 20: 1,351 check-ins
+1.0% vs. yesterday!
This deep-red Texas county is maintaining nearly identical opening-hour turnout across both days.
David D. Chapman retweeted
While I was digging around for Texas data, I did notice that tiny Bee County in South Texas threw out more than 10% of its 2024 presidential count in just one day of voting.
Trump +40 heavily Latino county. Dems are gonna have to try and win Texas over a massive wall of rural and exurban resistance and won’t get to take the low turnout way out.
David D. Chapman retweeted
Paxton wins if there is presidential levels of turnout… which so far is the case.
David D. Chapman retweeted
𝗙𝗟𝗢𝗥𝗜𝗗𝗔 𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗟𝗬 𝗜𝗡-𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗦𝗢𝗡 𝗩𝗢𝗧𝗘 | 𝟯 𝗣𝗠 𝗘𝗧 (Day 2)
The GOP lead topped 10,000 votes as the last hour broke R+6.1.
Total: 𝟯𝟬𝟰,𝟱𝟱𝟳 in-person ballots, 35 counties
REP: 128,564 (𝟰𝟮.𝟮%)
DEM: 117,961 (𝟯𝟴.𝟳%)
GOP lead: 𝗥+𝟯.𝟱 (+10,603 votes)
Without Broward: 𝗥+𝟳.𝟭
Last hour: +21,064 ballots, GOP lead up 1,294 from 9,309 at 2 PM.
Lee (+569 R / +243 D), Brevard, Manatee and Sarasota drove it; Broward, Orange and Duval leaned D.
Broward: 28,891 ballots, D+31.1. Last night's close: R+0.4 (+630).
𝘜𝘯𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢
sethjlevyhub.github.io/fl-ea…
David D. Chapman retweeted
OHIO POLL — Governor
🟥 Vivek Ramaswamy: 51.4% (+2.8)
🟦 Amy Acton: 48.6%
ActiVote | LV | 10/19
David D. Chapman retweeted
D+8 nationally but only D+2 in Ohio.
The Texas Marist poll had the Texas Generic Ballot at R+5
Democrats do not have a strong vote distribution.
They are coming hard out of California & New York but its not being replicated in the middle of the country.
David D. Chapman retweeted
President Trump is coming back to Texas next Tuesday for rallies in Lubbock and Waco, per RNC
Ken Paxton will attend both events.
These are red metros where Paxton needs strong turnout. Trump was +43 in the Lubbock metro and +35 in the Waco metro in '24
#TXSEN
David D. Chapman retweeted
Holding the nonwhite vote exactly where our survey has it, and holding white voters at 61.2 percent of the electorate, here’s what happens to the statewide margin as Collins’s white-voter margin moves toward the historical benchmark.
At R+35, Ossoff is +4.4. At R+38, he’s +2.6. At R+40, which is about as Republican as white Georgia has been in the modern era, the lead is down to a point and a half. It shrinks a lot but still doesn’t flip.
David D. Chapman retweeted
This is what happens when you put the national spotlight on a senate race in the midterms.
I get what Dems are doing. Gaining free media and aiding Talalrico with national attention.
However,
The national attention juices turnout in a midterm race that otherwise might see depressed turnout due to lack of interest or just typical midterm voting behavior.
As a Republican I say thank you.
But as an objective observer I count twice now they've made this mistake in Texas (1st being Beto).
David D. Chapman retweeted
Libs "Presidential turnout is actually REALLY good for Talarico, and if you disagree you're just coping"
How Texas votes with presidential turnout:
