@DataTrekMB
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New York, NY
Joined November 2017
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2/3 ...Last night's report relayed 2 stories on these topics. Even late in life, famed budget hawk Pete Peterson did not change his personal investments to incorporate the risks he saw...
1/3 Two debates have raged over the last few decades. The first is how much US budget deficits truly matter. The second is whether the Fed really has the power to achieve its famous dual mandate...
1/2 Global venture capital funding tracks technological opportunity, with higher interest rates unlikely to dent current record funding levels unless there’s a protracted equity bear market...
Fund investors were large net sellers of US stocks last week and added very little to their long-term bond holdings. Higher interest rates are not (yet) enticing this cohort into extending duration.
Two-/ten-year Treasury yields moved sharply higher yesterday, closing at 4.90 and 5.11 pct, respectively. The level on 2s to watch is 5.0 pct, rarely breached since 2020. For 10-years, real rates matter more and current levels (+2.6 pct) are already troubling.
New research from the @NewYorkFed shows that Treasury market liquidity is increasingly concentrated at end of day, especially at the close of a calendar month.
1/2 @StateStreet's latest data shows institutional investors’ equity allocations stand at 57.4%, the same as the prior high set in Feb '07, months before a cycle top ¬ long before the '08 Financial Crisis. Moreover, Dot Com era peaks were 58 – 60%, not far from here...
DataTrek's Nick Colas: "The C-suite must deliver on what it promises about AI or any other topic mentioned on a call... That bar is high, and rightfully so.” @emilybary @MarketWatch marketwatch.com/story/ai-is-…
The dollar strengthened by an average of +1.0 pct against baskets of developed and emerging economy currencies last week. The start of a Fed hiking cycle is, thus far, not causing any disruptions in this important market.
September is living up to its reputation as a tough month for global/US equities, but Q3 to date shows enough momentum across many geographies to keep us bullish going into Q4.
The FOMC’s new Summary of Economic Projections is a study in (confusing) contrast, with both higher future policy rates and inflation pressures. At least the committee is bullish on the US economy.
In the wake of yesterday’s Fed rate increase and Chair press conference, 2-yr Treasury yields closed at new 1-year highs and the S&P 500/ROW stocks finished at new 1-month lows.
1/2 S&P sector correlations to the index are starting to creep higher, albeit from historically low levels and not yet even back to the longer-run average...
1/2 WTI crude oil prices have closed above $100/bbl on only 8.5% of days (+1 standard deviation) since 2000, making current levels worrisome. Rate of change also matters. Annual price increases of +100% have augured recession since the 1970s...