So Brent oil looks like it's going to climb over $110 today. It's at $109.2 right now, and climbing fast. So what is going on? And is it like when it was north of $120 before? First, we have to understand WHY it spiked when we first invaded Iran. That was panic buying. It was based on a worst-case scenario "what if?" That meant that calming the panic could affect the price. The potential for a shortage was the issue—not the actual shortage. Over the next several months, the oil that moved through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from about 20 million barrels a day to about 5 million. And while there have been some workarounds I'll address in a moment, the amount of oil reserves that have been drawn down worldwide is not about "potential" shortages, it's about ACTUAL shortages, which is particularly true when it comes to diesel. Now about those workarounds. One workaround was ships turning off it's AIS tracking system. So when that happens, a tanker might get through without the oil being tracked. However, now that ships are getting blown out of the water, that changes that math. Over the last two weeks, 17 vessels—7 of them tankers—have been hit by one side or the other. That's not just that oil which gets through. That's ships that aren't willing to take the risk. That's insurance companies who aren't willing to insure it. That's an increased price on the oil for those that do go through. And that's not something Trump can make go away with a Truth Social post. There's another workaround which has to do with piping oil through other methods. One of the main ones is the Petroline in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's Hormuz workaround is being squeezed from both ends. The pipeline itself was attacked by drones launched from Iraq, while the Red Sea shipping route it feeds is increasingly threatened by the Houthis. The Houthis are one of the proxy groups that Iran is funding. The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is neither new nor connected directly to the US-Iran war, but it is related. The group from the other side is unknown, but it is alleged to be funded by Iran. The war makes the pipeline more valuable, which means that the Houthis are more likely to target which means that Iran gives them me money. Then when you add Iran targeting Lebanon into the mix, it makes everything worth. This is not to say that it's all "Trump's fault." But it is to say that Trump's attacks on Iran exacerbated the situation. It's like when you have a big box of cables and you need to pull one out. But they're all tangled up and the first one causes the grip on the next one tighten, and then it pulls on that one which closes tighter on a third one and so on. Which is all to say that the "panic" from April is a reality now, and that's why it's different. The actual current price of oil is up, not just the potential future price. And there is no realistic scenario where we suddenly have a flood of oil going through. One last thing I want to address is that oil is fungible. I anticipate people trying to argue that bombing Iranian oil destined for China is different. It's not in regards to the price of oil. Moralistically or strategically you can argue about, but I'm not engaging those arguments because they are moot. If we bomb that tanker, that oil doesn't get to China. China still needs oil so it buys it somewhere else. Then that oil is not available for someone else to buy. It's all connected. The worldwide oil supply determines the worldwide price. And the worldwide price is up for different reasons than when the US first attacked Iran. And that's why this time the price is unlikely come down as quickly.