Prof @SAISHopkins. Former Special Envoy @StateDept and VP @USIP. Dad of @JaredSerwer + @AdamSerwer. @Palgrave published my Strengthening International Regimes.
Washington DC
Joined October 2010
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That was well before this. It's possible she learned something. Our current president doesn't learn anything.
peacefare.net retweeted
As US Secretary of the Treasury @SecScottBessent clearly has absolutely no idea what he is talking about and asks “Where is Germany?” when it comes to the supply of Patriot fire units and missiles to Ukraine, I thought this might be a good time for an educational tweet.
Let's first talk about the supply of fire units and afterwards about the supply of missiles. Germany, Mr. Secretary, has in fact supplied more MIM-104 Patriot fire units to Ukraine than the US has, despite owning and operating only a fraction of what the US owns and operates. About half of Ukraine's MIM-104 Patriot fire units came from Bundeswehr stocks.
A total of five fully equipped MIM-104 Patriot fire units were supplied from Bundeswehr stocks between 2023 and 2025 alongside a few extra launchers and most likely a spare radar unit. Germany began donating Patriot related equipment to Ukraine at the same time the US has and still does it until this day while the US has long stopped donating this to Ukraine.
Let's now talk about missiles. Together with every fire unit, Germany also donated a missile package. Known donations included for example 100 missiles and 64 missiles. That's substantial, but of course, this only guaranteed the immediate operational readiness of said fire units, nothing else. We didn’t have our own production facilities and our stocks weren’t even remotely as well-stocked as those in the US. The US (led by Biden) actually kept those fire units alive.
In February 2025, before the delivery of the last two MIM-104 Patriot fire units took place, before various donations via PURL and JUMPSTART took place and before Germany made several smaller missile deliveries from its own stocks, the German MoD confirmed to have delivered 328 Patriot missiles of various versions. By now the number of Patriot missiles already financed and delivered should exceed 500 easily.
But what about what's happening now? Germany has shown multiple times since President Trump took office that it is leading in the organisation, funding and delivery of new ammunition for Ukraine's MIM-104 Patriot fire units.
The German government has multiple times organized or tried to organize new deliveries for Ukraine. For example, in February 2026, Germany was in talks with multiple nations to find a total of 35 PAC-3 missiles for Ukraine. After weeks-long negotiations, 30+ were actually donated as a result of the German initiative. Germany was also — on the highest levels — in talks with Spain and Greece for the delivery of additional missiles.
But of course, we are doing things beyond. A lot of things. As already mentioned, Germany is actively funding Patriot missiles from the US both via JUMPSTART and via PURL. You shouldn't forget @SecScottBessent, that we are paying you for this. As recently as June 2026, Germany spent a total of $200 million on PAC-3 missiles via JUMPSTART and another $200 million on various missiles via PURL. Total donations already exceed $1 billion.
And now to the final and biggest part: In April 2026, Germany announced an enormous missile package for Ukraine. Over the following years, Germany will spend €3.2 billion to finance 600 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles for Ukraine's MIM-104 Patriot fire units — made in Germany by the way.
So please don't ask what Germany is doing for Ukraine. We do more for Ukraine then anybody else, including the US. All you do now is getting paid billions for the bare minimum.
PS: For full transparency it must be noted that multiple nations like Denmark, Lithuania and Norway above all have supported Germany financially in the delivery or re-procurement of MIM-104 Patriot fire units and missiles.
peacefare.net retweeted
PS I’ve met Putin many times and listened in on calls with him as well. I also speak Russian. Yes he is soft spoken, deliberate, and measured. So what? He’s still a killer. He still launched a barbaric invasion of Ukraine, that has produced tragic loss of life not seen on this scale in Europe since WWII.
Vance: "I've never met Putin in person. I've spoken to him on the phone. He was calmer than you might expect. The American media has a stereotype of him. He's very deliberate and measured in his words.
I think, at his core, he's someone who cares about Russia's interests as he sees them. One reason he respects the President is that he recognizes the President cares about the interests of the American people."
peacefare.net retweeted
Putin's political strategy is not a strong one, but its main pieces are moving forward on the board: He has instigated the biggest political crisis between Washington and Kyiv of the war. And candidates representing parties against Ukraine and with documented links to Russian intelligence are real contenders to run at least two of the three most important European members of NATO: the National Rally in France and the AfD in Germany. (This would, however, require early elections in the case of Germany as its next national cycle isn't until 2029. But early elec certainly not impossible). It is also too early to count out Reform in the UK despite its stumbles, particularly as the cost-of-living crisis -- hyper charged by Iran -- balloons. If the war continues, the alliance's major powers may, in the not distant future, become unwilling to support Ukraine. That is the world Ukraine should be planning for.
peacefare.net retweeted
Trump: If Democrats win, “You’re going to be thrown into a system where everyone gets healthcare.”
peacefare.net retweeted
A Serbian prosecutor investigating alleged corruption surrounding a Trump real estate project in Belgrade was targeted with Israeli-made Pegasus spyware after speaking out about political interference and abuses of power.
vist.ly/5nytc
It takes a while for the obvious to penetrate unwilling minds:
Nearly 2 in 3 Americans say President Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself—and most of the increase over the past year comes from people who lean Republican, according to a Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. wapo.st/3Wcia7p
I do. Trump is in Putin’s pocket.
Trump and his team argue that if Putin makes more money and feels better about the West, he is more likely to make a deal on Ukraine.
Now apply that logic to Iran. It means we should be easing sanctions, letting Iran sell energy, making them feel better about the West, and then they will make a deal with us about ending the war and quitting nukes. etc.
So why one appeasement strategy for Putin and another coercive strategy for Putin's allies in Iran? I dont get it.
This is correct:
Too clever by half. He correctly notes that Ukraine cannot give up its fortress belt because that'd give the Russians a "straight shot into Kyiv." Yet he insists the war is just about 11% of territory. No, the lie is in his explanation: Putin wants the 11% at the negotiating table because he cannot take it on the battlefield; and he wants it because it gives him another opportunity to make a play for Kyiv at a later date. The Russians don't want to end the war, they want the U.S. to create the more amenable conditions for the continuation of the war in future. The tragedy of Rubio is that he's in better command of the facts than anyone else in this administration but he nonetheless ends up acting a mouthpiece for policies he knows are wrong.
Add this to the long list that demonstrates Witkoff is witless:
🚨 BREAKING:
Witkoff: "There's only one thing I wish for. That the Nobel Committee finally realizes that you're the greatest candidate ever since the idea of the Nobel Prize was conceived, and that you deserve to receive this award."
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This video is from an August 2025 cabinet meeting, not breaking news. The quote paraphrases Steve Witkoff's actual remarks there.
washingtontimes.com/news/2025/aug/…
x.com/Acyn/status/19…
peacefare.net retweeted
I may be reading too much into this statement, and I certainly hope I am wrong. But it is hard not to interpret it as suggesting that Netanyahu promised Trump another joint military operation against Iran in exchange for his political support.
In other words, Netanyahu may have effectively committed Israel to another war with Iran to secure his political future, regardless of the potential consequences.
If that is indeed the case, it would be an extraordinary and troubling revelation. Israel cannot afford another war with Iran driven by political calculations rather than a genuine national security necessity.
#IranWar
🚨🚨🚨Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of the elections in a post on Truth Social:
To the Great People of Israel:
Bibi Netanyahu has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its 51 year old chant, “Death to Israel, Death to America! We will destroy the Little Satan and the Big Satan.” What Country can survive when things such as this are allowed to be said, because eventually, they always end up being true? It would have been only a question of time until Iran would have put that ominous phrase into effect, but they have been systematically destroyed, both Militarily and Financially, and unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job. If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so. Bibi Netanyahu has been Strong, Brave, and Brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition, including that coming from even Israel, itself. Despite all of that, he has endured and, in fact, he has thrived! I have watched Bibi under the most trying of times. Normal men or women in such situations would have wilted under the pressure — But Bibi did not wilt, he actually got stronger, and maintains that same Strength today. This is the kind of Partner that the United States of America is demanding of Israel, a Country for which it has done so much. Please let this Letter serve to represent my Complete and Total Endorsement of Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming Race for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Israel. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! Thank you for your attention to this matter.
A bit hyperbolic, but true,
Tonight, fires are raging around St Petersburg after another Ukrainian drone attack. All because a 74-year-old man in the Kremlin decided that conquering his neighbours was more important than giving his own people a future.
Imagine what Russia could have been. Your children studying at universities in Paris, Oxford or Berlin. Families spending summers on the Mediterranean, skiing in the Alps, discovering Rome, Barcelona and Copenhagen. Russian scientists working alongside Europe's finest minds. Businesses flourishing, borders opening, young Russians falling in love, travelling freely and building prosperous lives in the world's most extraordinary neighbourhood.
And Russia's vast oil wealth could have continued filling the national savings account, building a financial cushion for a rainy day and securing the prosperity of future generations. Instead, that fortune has been drained by war, and the country's financial future has been mortgaged to one man's imperial ambitions.
You had an entire continent on your doorstep, ready to trade, cooperate and prosper.
Instead, you have sanctions, burning oil facilities, military funerals, censorship and a generation sacrificed to one elderly man's imperial fantasies. Children raised on militaristic propaganda, families struggling with poverty and alcoholism, and young men sent to die in Ukrainian fields.
And your great international friendship? North Korea. A miserable dictatorship famous for prison camps, hunger, compulsory displays of loyalty and children taught to march in formation.
Now Russia's future is increasingly tied to the failed Trump regime. And if you believe a man whose business empire has seen six corporate bankruptcies involving casinos and hotels is going to rescue the Russian economy, you may be in for another disappointment. Sorry, but Donald Trump is not Russia's financial salvation.
You could have shared Europe's prosperity. Instead, Putin has brought you closer to Pyongyang, with a bankrupt casino magnate as your supposed lifeline.
What a catastrophic waste of a great country's future.
Oh well, anyway.
I suppose all this may be technically accurate, but Trump has made it plain in word and deed (withholding intel, Starlink) as well as many past instances ghat he wants Putin to win.
peacefare.net retweeted
איראן נערכת למלחמות הבאות: בניין הכוח הטילי במרכז האסטרטגיה החדשה
איראן נכנסת לשלב חדש ואינטנסיבי של בניין כוח צבאי, כאשר במרכזו עומד המאמץ לשקם ולהרחיב את יכולותיה בתחום הטילים הבליסטיים.
הבחירה באח'לאקי, בעל ניסיון משמעותי בייצור טילים המונעים בדלק מוצק, איננה מקרית. היא משקפת את הכיוון האסטרטגי שאליו צועדת טהראן: הרחבה משמעותית של מערך הטילים, האצת קצב הייצור וחיזוק היכולת לנהל מערכות צבאיות ממושכות.
אם נחבר לכך את איחוד מפקדת ח'אתם אלאנביאא' עם המטה הכללי של הכוחות המזוינים תחת פיקודו של עלי עבדאללהי, נקבל תמונה רחבה יותר של השינוי בתפיסה הצבאית האיראנית.
איראן מפנימה שהעימותים הצבאיים אינם עוד אירועים חריגים, אלא מציאות אסטרטגית שהיא צריכה להיערך אליה באופן קבוע. בהתאם לכך, טהראן פועלת להאיץ את בניין הכוח, לחזק את יכולותיה הא-סימטריות, להרחיב את עצמאותה בתחום הייצור הביטחוני ולהבטיח שתוכל לשקם במהירות יכולות שייפגעו במערכות עתידיות.
המשמעות מבחינת ישראל ברורה: איראן איננה מסתפקת בשיקום הנזקים שנגרמו לה במערכות הקודמות. היא מבקשת לבנות כוח צבאי שיאפשר לה להתמודד עם מערכות נוספות, ואולי אף תכופות יותר, תוך צמצום התלות שלה בגורמים חיצוניים.
מדובר באתגר אסטרטגי משמעותי לישראל. המערכות האחרונות מול איראן המחישו כי גם תקיפות נרחבות וחוזרות ונשנות, שגרמו נזק משמעותי לתשתיות הייצור ולמערך הטילים האיראני, אינן מסוגלות לשלול מטהראן את יכולתה לשקם את המערך ולחדש את ייצור הטילים.
וזו בדיוק הבעיה. למרות המחיר הכבד שאיראן שילמה, היא חוזרת לייצר טילים ולשקם את יכולותיה. מנגד, גם ישראל שילמה מחיר אדיר במערכות הללו, עובדה שמעלה סימני שאלה משמעותיים לגבי היכולת להמשיך ולנהל מדיניות של "כיסוח הדשא" מול בניין הכוח האיראני, כאשר כל סבב נוסף כרוך במחירים ביטחוניים, כלכליים ואזרחיים כבדים.
הפער בין ההישגים המבצעיים של ישראל לבין התוצאה האסטרטגית הולך ומתחדד. ישראל יכולה לפגוע בתשתיות, להשמיד משגרים ולעכב את קצב הייצור, אבל עד כה לא הוכח שביכולתה למנוע מאיראן לשקם את יכולותיה לאורך זמן.
מנגד, ברור שטהראן אינה מתכוונת לעצור. להפך, היא מפיקה לקחים מהמערכות האחרונות, מאיצה את בניין הכוח ומבקשת להרחיב את יכולותיה בתחום הטילים, מתוך הבנה שהן מהוות מרכיב מרכזי ביכולת ההרתעה והתגובה שלה מול ישראל וארצות הברית.
וכל זה עוד לפני שעסקנו באתגר הגרעין האיראני.
לכן, השאלה שישראל חייבת לשאול את עצמה היא לא רק כיצד לפגוע שוב במערך הטילים האיראני, אלא מהי האסטרטגיה שתאפשר לה להתמודד עם איום שמתחדש גם לאחר פגיעה קשה, מבלי להיגרר למעגל אינסופי של מלחמות יקרות שאינן משנות באופן יסודי את המציאות האסטרטגית.
כי אם לאחר כל מערכה איראן מצליחה לשקם את יכולותיה, בעוד ישראל נדרשת לשלם שוב ושוב מחיר כבד כדי לפגוע בהן, חובה לשאול האם אנחנו באמת משנים את המציאות הביטחונית או רק דוחים את המערכה הבאה.
הפרלמנט האיראני אישר את מינוי מהרדאד אח'לאקי לתפקיד שר ההגנה - ברוב של 237 קולות בעד, 15 נגד וללא נמנעים, מתוך 277 שנכחו בישיבה. המינוי מגיע אחרי שב"שאגת הארי" בפברואר, חוסל שר ההגנה עזיז נסירזאדה ולאחר מכן, מג'יד אבן א-רזא שימש ממלא מקומו.
אח'לאקי, בן 68, צמח בתעשיות הביטחוניות של איראן ומילא תפקידים בכירים במערך הפיתוח והייצור של הטילים. בעבר עמד בראש קבוצת התעשיות שהיד באקרי, האחראית לפיתוח ולייצור טילים בליסטיים המונעים בדלק מוצק, וכפופה לארגון התעשיות האוויריות והחלל של משרד ההגנה. ב-2014 מונה למנכ"ל ארגון זה, המפקח על תעשיות הטילים האיראניות.
ארה”ב הטילה עליו סנקציות כבר ב-2008 בשל פעילותו בקבוצת שהיד באקרי, ובכלל זה מעורבותו במשא ומתן לרכישת ציוד עבורה. לפי סוכנות הידיעות האיראנית תסנים, הוא צבר כ-43 שנות ניסיון בתעשיות הביטחוניות, ובהן כ-30 שנות פעילות בתחום הדלק המוצק לטילים.
peacefare.net retweeted
7 years ago, Lebanese of all sects came out into the streets to protest the corrupt ruling order that bankrupted the country (the immediate trigger was a tax on WhatsApp). In the 2020 university student elections, the “Secular Clubs” representing the uprising made their biggest gains in Lebanese history. Since then, the popularity of the Secular Clubs has waned in all campuses. In 2022, 13 independent MPs entered parliament claiming to represent the Lebanese Tishreen (October) protest movement. If elections were held on time this year instead of being postponed by 2 years, most of them probably would have failed to win.
In Iraq, the simultaneous 2019 Tishreen uprising (which brought millions into the streets and was violently repressed by Iranian-commanded militias that slaughtered hundreds of protesters) brought almost 50 independent MPs into parliament in the 2021 elections. In the 2025 elections, none of them won.
The failure of the uprisings to bring about change through the streets or parliament stems from multiple reasons but is a testament to the durability and adaptability of the parasitical systems and parties ruling both countries. Both Lebanese and Iraq are failed states in terms of state service provision and the monopoly over the means of violence. Yet, the absence of a single ruling party arguably makes the system harder to topple and makes it easier for parties to escape responsibility for state failure. And concerns about the balance of power between sects also makes it harder for voters to abandon their traditional parties.
The election of Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam at President and PM owing to Hezbollah’s defeat in the 2024 war and effective politicking by the Tishreeni MPs appeared a moment of hope for Lebanon. Yet almost 2 years into their term, the ruling system is clearly winning. Aoun and even Salam (a clearly non-corrupt individual) not only failed to constrain Hezbollah, but have also succumbed to the power of the “deep state”: bankers, special interests and Nabih Berri, the ruler of the “deep state”. In the service of the banking elite (responsible for the 2019 banking collapse and impoverishment of millions of Lebanese) Aoun appealed against a banking reform law that is crucial for receiving loans from the IMF. Aoun and Salam backed a constitutionally dubious decision to renew the term of the president of the Lebanese University because Berri insisted on him. This follows the transfer of $90 million by the gov for services to the war-torn south to Berri’s Council of the South, a well-known hub of corruption and patronage, rather than through gov ministries.
These decisions may appear meaningless to outside observers who only care about Hezbollah disarmament, but they’re very telling: those too scared to stand up to the banking mafia and Nabih Berri (Hezbollah’s chief ally) will not disarm Hezbollah without severe outside pressure. This pressure is likely too late at this point to prevent a 3rd war between Hezbollah & Israel, which appears likely after the US midterms as Israel & US will strike the Iranian regime again. Still, it ought to be applied, otherwise Lebanon will simply witness more cycles of war, further impoverishment of the Lebanese and permanent displacement from the south.
Source of the video: youtube.com/@ArawlensMedia/v…
peacefare.net retweeted
WP poll: As Trump approval hits record low, record high say they are ‘not as well off’ financially as when Trump entered office wapo.st/4inunih
