Daniël Scheper

Harry Enten: “all right, folks, the moment of truth is here. it's time for my final midterm forecast. we're talking the united states house, we're talking the united states senate. and i've looked at thousands, no, hundreds of thousands of data points, thousands of polls to understand which way the tides are shaking. and we're going to start off with the u.s. house of representatives. we're going to be talking about all 435 seats. we're going to be projecting all of them. but before we do so, we have to understand how we get to that forecast. and it all starts off, well, with the man at the top, president trump. and look at this. look at his approval rating, his net approval rating. he is down there swimming with the little mermaid. he's 24 points underwater. that is the worst. that is the worst for any president ever dating back to at least harry s. truman in 1946. the worst for any president before a midterm election. now, of course, trump being unpopular is only part of the republicans' issues. take a look at this. approve of congress, just 14 percent. look, congress always has a low approval rate, but never this low, never this low going into an election. fourteen percent, the lowest ever going into an election on record, 81 percent disapprove. now look, folks, i know what you're saying, harry, harry, you know, folks always disapprove of congress, but they like their own congressmen. not anymore, not anymore. this is even more troubling. look at this. say their own congress member deserves reelection or does not deserve. for the first time ever going into an election, look at this, the plurality, the plurality, 45 percent say that their own member of congress does not deserve reelection. woof. now what does this all relate back to, right? what does this all relate back to? well, inflation is the name of the game and americans, simply put, do not believe that the president of the united states is measuring up because it was the reason that trump got elected back in 2024, reelected. look at this. trusted more on the issue of inflation by nine points over kamala harris. but look at this, his net approval rating now, 52 points underwater. that is more unpopular than any other president ever. yes, it's even more unpopular than jimmy carter was on inflation. he is down there swimming in lake erie. my god, it's terrible. now this all, of course, hurts republicans when they are running for reelection and those who want to join congress. i don't want to join congress, but for some reason, democrats and republicans on both sides apparently do want to join congress. and look at this, this is a national congressional ballot democratic lead and it has been widening. it has been widening. look at this. a year ago, democrats were up by five. now in the summer, this past summer, it was plus six. and today, look at this, plus nine. and that plus nine is important because it easily overcomes the gop redistricting. there were those redistricting wars, democrats, republicans redrawing the lines. republicans ended up winning that battle, but in reality, all democrats probably need is to win the popular house vote by plus four. you don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that plus nine is significantly greater than plus four. now when we're talking about the national generic congressional ballot, right, or the national house ballot, that's one way to measure potential success in the house. the other way or another way is to look at race raters. i'm talking about your cooks, your sabato's, who are rating each individual race right down to the t. now this, what we're seeing is something truly historic going on here. house seats at least leaning democratic. well, right now in 2026, we're talking about 224. look back past, jump into the delorean, go to the past cycles. in 2022, it was 193 at this point in the cycle, 193 leaning democratic. democrats ended up north of 210 seats. what about in 2018, when democrats easily won back a house majority, net gain of 40 seats in the house? even then, they were well south of 218 seats, 218 of course being the magic number needed for a majority. so democrats are already running well ahead of their pace in prior election cycles, according to the race raters. so you put together that national generic ballot, you put together that with the race raters say, “hey, democrats are in pretty good shape.” here's one word of warning, one word of warning is that if we look back at these race ratings, right, historically speaking, we can see, or at least those forecasts, we can see that the forecast sometimes actually overshoot democrats, they overshoot democrats. so this is 2020 u.s. house races, the house seat forecast, 242 for the democrats back in 2020. and look at what ended up happening, democrats won only 222. so there was an undershoot, the democrats actually fell about 20 seats short. they fell about 20 seats short of what the forecast were projecting. and you need to keep that in mind. that's why i'm also looking at other data that has nothing to do with polling, nothing to do with race raters who are looking at the polling. i'm talking about primary turnout. and you can see this here, national primary turnout edge by party. and what's so important is in each of the past few cycles, the midterms, the party that had the larger primary turnout ended up winning the house, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. in all the cases, the same party that had the national primary turnout edge went on to win the u.s. house. and you know what this year? you know who has the primary edge? well, it is team blue. so here it is. it's actually a moment of truth. it is a moment of truth that we're coming up on. that is what is actually the most likely scenario for the u.s. house of representatives. and i will note that its chance has been climbing ever higher, higher and higher, as jackie wilson once said. it's up eight points from where we were back on august 13th, back on august 14th. and what is that? what is the chance? well, our most likely scenario is democrats' chance to win the u.s. house of representatives, up to 92%, up to 92% that democrats win back the u.s. house of representatives, according to an aggregate of models, my aggregate of models. now look, 92% is not 100%. that still leaves republicans with an 8% chance, but chances are democrats are going to take back the house, and more than that, they're going to take back the house with these, because i promised you a specific seat forecast and here it is. in the horseshoe, you can see it, there's more blue than red. and so our final projection, our final house forecast is 237 seats for the dems, 198 seats for the republicans. but this is the most likely forecast. i'm not saying i'm going to be right on. it's going to be very interesting to see after the elections, we're going to go back, we're going to see how close that this actually got. but at this point, democrats look like they're not just going to reach 218 seats, they're going to exceed it with ease. of course, i know the real reason, or at least i think i know the real reason that a lot of you have tuned into this, and that is you want a senate forecast. and we do have a final senate forecast, but this is obviously exhausting me. i've had a very long week, so a little mid-forecast drink for me. i do enjoy a good cream soda, and there we go. okay, so we're going to be projecting out all of the senate seats, all 35 senate seats, all the states in yellow, we're going to fill them on in, we're going to fill them on in. but before we do so, we have to understand just how hard it is for democrats, historically speaking, how hard it is for democrats, and why republicans at the beginning of this cycle, we thought, were in the catbird seat. and this is why. take a look here. senate flips in states that the party lost by at least 10 points in the prior presidential election. how many seats did they flip in non-special elections since 2011? that is over the last 15 years, they flipped zero, zero, zero. they flipped zero seats. and why is that so important? because democrats need at least two. at least they need to flip at least two plus-10 trump states in order to win back the united states senate. but here's where it gets really interesting. here's where it gets really interesting. look at this. okay. take a look at these key senate race dem poll margins at this point, where trump won by at least 10 points. you actually see a lot of blue on your screen. alaska plus three. will be interesting to see if the final polls actually end up matching the results, given all the controversies there with the two dan sullivans. ohio, sherrod brown, seeming to do pretty gosh darn well at this point, leading by three points. the democrat there trying to win back a seat in the senate. of course he is a former longtime incumbent. texas, james talarico, hoping to become the first united states senator from texas since 1988. he's up by three. kansas, which hasn't elected a democratic senator since 1932, when babe ruth looked to the bleachers and called his shot in the '32 world series against the cubs at wrigley field. and iowa, you can't get any closer than that. the democrat josh, in the polling, up by the smallest, smallest of margins, a point, it should be noted. all these races are really tight right now, but they do seem to be leaning slightly democratic, slightly democratic. now, what could possibly cause this, because trump won in these states by at least 10 points just two years ago. well, my dear friends, it's something that should have republicans nationwide picking up the phone, picking up the phone. hello. hello. i'm john whitehouse. what is going on? and here's the deal. trump, despite winning all those states by at least 10 points, is now underwater by double digits in all of them. in texas, he's 13 points underwater. alaska, 15 points underwater. deep down there, i mean, my goodness gracious, you can get in the pacific ocean. you can't get as far south as donald trump is right now. how about in iowa, the cornfields of iowa? he's way underneath those cornfields. look at that, 16 points underwater. kansas, 16 points underwater, and ohio, he's down there in the ohio river, my dear friends. he's 16 points underwater. woof. it's no bueno, not good news. now, here's the thing to keep in mind though. i know a lot of you are wondering about this, and it is really worth this asterisk, and this gives hope. this gives hopes to republicans. look at this. okay. you all know if you're watching this video that polling has tended to underestimate republicans, and that is true, especially in trump won states. look at this. the gop has beat their final senate poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4.1 points in the states trump won in the prior election. we're looking at the close states, the states that in the final senate polling average were all within five, and that is the case with all, with all of these states. i mean, look at this, 3, 3, 3, 3, less than one. so when we see that and we see, oh wow, that 4.1, all of that is within the historic range in which republicans could potentially win. and that's why this map really to me tells an important story. this is very possible. this is possible. your 2026 senate, if polls underestimate the gop by four, by four points, right across the board. look at that. you get michigan, michigan goes red, iowa stays red, texas is red, alaska is red, kansas stays red, and you just see that it is quite possible that republicans do in fact hold on the united states senate. but that's not the full story, because it's not just about trump and his unpopularity. it is also about how unpopular these different senate candidates are, the republicans in these deeply red states. look at this. they're all double digits underwater. dan sullivan, ashley hinson in iowa, roger marshall in kansas, john husted in ohio, ken paxton, ken paxton, 29 points underwater. what the heck is that? that makes him by far the most unpopular gop senate nominee in texas this century. i will also note that this roger marshall number, minus 17, i did the math. that also makes roger marshall, at this late point in the campaign, the most unpopular gop nominee for senate in kansas. now it goes beyond that though, right? because we're talking about history potentially being made, and i know a lot of folks have had a lot of interest in the texas senate race, and they'll say, oh yes, the polls have, you know, underestimated republicans. here's the deal though. james talarico, six point lead, is the best that any democratic senate nominee since 1988, when lloyd benson was the last democrat to win a senate seat, was polling at this late point in the campaign. so this is truly historic. beto o'rourke was behind at this point back in the 2018 cycle. now i've been talking about the plus-10 trump states, right? i've been talking about them, but there's also another republican-held senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has outperformed their polling in the past, and of course talking about susan collins in maine, susan collins in maine. her net popularity though in maine right now is the worst it has been heading into an election this entire century, in the 2000s. look at this, 12 points on the water. so yes, susan collins has outperformed her polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is right now. and this is what we're seeing across the map. we're seeing historic anomalies, not just that trump is unpopular, but these gop nominees are historically unpopular. so what is in fact the most likely senate scenario? well, i can tell you that the chance of it has gone way up. it has gone way up from where we were when we made our first forecast back on august the 13th. look at this, up 19 points, nearly up 20 points. i guess 19 be one, a four and a five. up 19 points according to the aggregate, my aggregation of models. and where does that leave us? where does that leave us in terms of the most likely senate outcome? well, drum roll if you please. here it is. chance that the democrats win the senate. this is the most likely outcome is now up to 71%, 71%. i never thought i'd see the day early on in this campaign where democrats would have a 71% chance of winning back the united states senate. i mean, that is a huge chance, but it's still not a hundred percent. republicans still have a 29% chance of holding on to the united states senate. and that ain't nothing, that ain't nothing, because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on what? 30% bats .300, although baseball players have been getting hits less and less, but that's right near that. that's right near that. and of course we can remember the wade boggs of the world, the george bretts of the world. they were easily breaking .300 batting averages, getting on at least 30% of the time, all of the time. so look, this is still quite a high possibility, right? you see players who have .290 batting averages getting on a whole heck of a lot. now this is 71%, right? but i promised you a specific seat forecast, specific seat forecast. so here we go. this is it. this is the specific seat forecast. and i'm going to get nerdy for a second here, but first, what are we talking about? we are talking about 52 democrats, 52 democrats, compared to 48 republicans, compared to 48 republicans. so democrats, not just getting the 51 seats necessary, but getting the 52, a clear majority of united states senate seats. now if you're looking at your map here, you'll see, look, texas goes blue, kansas goes blue, alaska. yes, alaska at this point goes blue. we'll have to wait and see. ohio goes blue, to get the flip in north carolina, michigan stays blue, and maine, yes, even in maine, you get a flip. but here's the thing i want you to keep in mind as we look at this. the race in these states, maine, kansas, iowa stays red, and alaska, are all very, very, very close. it wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way. now if you're truly a nerd at home, you might be tallying up and you go, “harry, wait a minute. it's actually 53 seats that you're showing that democrats will win, in terms of the seats they currently have and then the seats that they would gain in this election.” here's the thing. we're talking probabilistically. so that one of these states, one of these states that currently, that i am saying are going to go blue, may not go blue. i mean the race in kansas right now, in the polling, in the projections, it seems to be very, very tight. maybe that seat actually goes red. we don't know. it's probabilistically, and when we add it up, it's 52 democrats and 48 republicans. so that is right now the final seat forecast. we'll go back after the election, see how it works out individually, but i'm putting it on the line right here. and with that, we head to my favorite section. yes. yes. it's the bonus section. look, i know some of you are saying, “house, senate,” but what about the govs? you're truly saying you're interested in governors outside of your state, but don't worry. i got you covered. i got you covered. chance that a majority of govs are democrats, and this comes from kalshi, cnn's prediction market partner. and look at this. the chance? up like a rocket. up like a rocket. after the midterms, you know, back on march 30th, it was just a 27% chance. just a 27% chance. now what are we talking about? we're talking about an 83% chance, an 83% chance. so at this point, it looks more likely than not, whether you look at the prediction markets like this, whether you look at the polling data, whether you look at the race raters, that most governors, the majority of governors after this election, will in fact be democrats. and that is really rare. that is really rare in modern history, because look at this. look at this. how about the times that dems held a majority of gov seats in the past 32 years? it's just 12. just 12% of the time. it is truly rare. so if in fact the projections do come true, we're looking at something that some of you have maybe only seen very little in your lifetime. i bet a lot of our audience has only seen it for four years in their lifetime. i mean, we're talking 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, when democrats lost that governor's majority, those governor's mentions majority. now look, as we look forward, i want to push the ball forward a little bit, right, in our bonus slide section. look ahead after the midterms. if the projections are right, i do wonder how the democratic majorities are going to like their voters back at home and put them into office. because you know what? there's been a lot of dem on dem crime. democrats are expecting a lot, a lot from their leaders, if in fact they do win the majorities. because look at this. net approval of congressional dem leaders. you know, the last time you had a trump midterm, it was plus 19 points. look where it is now. way down there. it's minus 12 points. this is democrats on democrats, for goodness sake. democrats don't even like their own leaders. they're sick of their own leaders. and that puts a lot of pressure on democrats if in fact they do get into power. and there's one leader they specifically don't like. and that is this gentleman. and that is the senior senator from the great state of new york, my home state, chuck schumer. his net popularity rating among democrats is minus five points. i went back and looked at all the polling that i could since 1985. that's over 40 years of polling. and you know what that is? he's the least popular democratic leader in the united states senate since at least 1985. well, folks, that's it. i'm done. this has been a lot. my voice is running a little low. oh, no, wait a minute. i got it back. the mic helped me a lot. and with that, folks, you know what i say? peace out.”