
@AngeloState Asst Prof in Poli Sci | @UCSB PhD | @UChicago MA | prev @nsfgrfp Fellow | Studying IR conflict | Some jokes | Are RTs endorsements? Who can say
Joined January 2018
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In my US foreign policy class I talked about episodic framing (just giving info on events) vs thematic framing (giving a broader context). I asked students which they think the media does now and got an interesting response:
Pretty universally students thought that the media gives mostly thematic framing for everything. Everything is contextualized in some political way. And this is despite the fact that media is shorter than ever. Really fascinating
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
Literally happening right now
For like the past three months this app and website keeps telling me my password is incorrect when it definitely is correct
Can't update any account settings at all. @Support
part of growing up from being a grad student is realizing that standards for research were different 24 years ago. Whenever people say his work is "unconvincing" they're going by modern standards, not the early 2000s
For some time Daron Acemoglu has been the colossus of economics. Give an economist a few drinks, however, and some of them will venture their true opinions about this giant, bit.ly/3TTvFbc
Photo: Shutterstock
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
The return of ethnic exclusion !!!
After decades of gradual decline, the share of ethnic groups excluded from executive power has been rising again since around 2010. The solid black line shows the actual trend; the dashed gray line shows what would have happened if the post-Cold War inclusion trend had continued.
This reversal is not just a statistical curiosity. The same pattern appears in the incidence of ethnic civil war (bottom panel).
Groups that lose access to power face a significantly higher risk of rebellion !!!
These findings come from a forthcoming article in International Security (@mitpress, @DrJLHazelton) by Lars-Erik Cederman, Paola Galano Toro, Luc Girardin, Andreas Juon, and Julian Wucherpfennig.
Using updated Ethnic Power Relations data (1946–2023), the authors show that the recent uptick in both exclusion and conflict is closely linked to the growing influence of nationalist politics worldwide.
In short: the liberal trend toward greater ethnic inclusion has stalled, and in many places reversed, with measurable consequences for political violence.
The new issue of @IntSecHarvard is out! Celebrate our 50th anniversary with articles from Mearsheimer, Lars-Erik Cedarman et al, and Eli Sanchez. Letters on What Does China Want @BelferCenter @mitpress @Pearson_ink direct.mit.edu/isec/issue/51…
I guess now is as good a time as any to mention that I will be starting as an assistant professor at Angelo State University! Looking forward to the Fall 2026 semester
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
Hormuz has been effectively closed for days, as video shows
Bad news for the world economy as oil inventories keep running down
August shock is becoming more likely by the day
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
made a semi-fun, deep dive into the fate(s) of IR realism in academia: The Strange Fate(s) of IR Realism
made a semi-fun, deep dive into the fate(s) of IR realism in academia: The Strange Fate(s) of IR Realism
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
"I survived on"
I was homeless twice. Even after I graduated from college, went through three different careers before working in education and publishing, I have never even imagined living in NYC because of the rent costs, even when they are half of what they are now. In the first recession of the aughts, I literally fed two people on 50 dollars a week. Now that is 20 years, so that is probably about 100 dollars today in purchasing power. My account was in the red, and my wife was laid off a lot at the time for two years. Together, we netted less than 40k as a household for most of our marriage (one year we both had decent jobs and hit like 60k that year as a household, but then 2008 happened).
I literally left the States to get started saving money. I got into Emory and couldn't go. I had NO health insurance at all until I was 27. Do not play that game with me. I am "upper middle class" now. But rare for a "red" I know, but I am upwardly mobile. Despite that, I couldn't and still can't replicate my parents' lifestyle, who were formally a lower class rung than me by liberal accounting.
If you PhDs want to poverty-porn each other, go ahead. I would NEVER ask anyone else to live that way.
Dan Gamarnik retweeted
Iran’s new Supreme Leader may make this war more dangerous than the one he replaces.
History shows that when leaders are killed at the start of conflicts, their successors often escalate to prove authority.
It’s a pattern I call the Harder Successor Problem.
A thread.



















