Late February: 5.98%, the 12-month low. Early September: 6.71%. Mid-October: 7.40%. That's the 30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac weekly avg). Appraisals follow closed sales. Closed sales follow what buyers could borrow a month or two earlier. Locked a rate this year? What'd you get?

Builder confidence: 29 in October, down 3 points (NAHB). Buyer traffic: 18. Anything under 50 means more builders call sales poor than good. And 43% of builders cut prices this month, the most since at least 2020. Builders feel a slowdown first. Appraisers see it last, in the closed sales. Same market, different speedometer. Shopping new construction right now? Did the builder cut the price yet?

The DFW buyer's market isn't a flood of sellers. It's a buyer no-show. Redfin's September estimates vs. a year ago: Dallas: sellers −5.7%, buyers −14.5% Fort Worth: sellers −7.6%, buyers −24.3% Fewer homes for sale than last fall. Way fewer people trying to buy them. Appraiser translation: that shows up first as homes sitting longer and more back-and-forth on terms, then in the closed sales I have to use. Comps lag the mood. Buyers touring this fall: are you seeing other buyers at showings, or just you and the lockbox?

Everyone panicking about the "Nov 2 appraisal changes": the deadline didn't move, but some lenders got a hall pass. On Sept 30, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offered a one-time exception. Lenders that request it can keep submitting the old format (UAD 2.6) through May 19, 2027. Reduced functionality starts Mar 1, and the old format is retired June 28, 2027. So after Nov 2 your appraisal might be the shiny new format… or look exactly like last year's. That depends on your lender, not your house. New form or old, same job. The value still comes from closed sales. Closing after Nov 2? What's your one burning question about the new report?

Hot take: your HOA dues are part of your house's price. Buyers just pay that part monthly. At this week's 7.40% average 30-yr rate, every $100/mo in dues eats the same monthly budget as about $14,400 of mortgage. A $300/mo HOA? Roughly $43K of buying power spoken for before anyone sees the kitchen. You can refinance a rate. You can't refinance dues. Lenders count dues in the qualifying payment. So when similar homes carry very different dues, I check whether buyers actually paid differently. That's what closed sales are for. Homeowners: what's your monthly HOA, and what does it actually cover?

DFW's typical home value: $358,242 in September. Down 2.0% from a year ago and 8.6% below the August 2022 peak. Metro averages aren't your house. Comps are. Bought in the last five years? Which point on this line did you buy at?

8 things homeowners swear add value, and what an appraiser actually sees (from years of appraising Texas homes) 🧵

Mortgage rates don't float on vibes. They ride the 10-yr Treasury plus a spread. Week of Oct 15: 30-yr 7.40%, 10-yr 5.19%. Spread 2.21 pts vs a 2-yr avg of 2.18. Lenders aren't padding it much. The 10-yr did the climbing. If you're waiting on rates, which number are you actually watching?