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So far there appears to be a pretty strong $QXO support bid. Inference from the reality that once BLD gets pulled off the board/converted the criteria for inclusion in a number of ETFs gets violated.
Argument here would be that the prepositioning ahead of that for the VWAP is nervous. We saw massive option positioning last week, gamma upside is where I'll be watching.
Short interest in the ball park of 120mm, etf's only going to have 30mm to give.
Interesting to see this one play. Perhaps July 4th 🎇, perhaps your thumb gets blown off holding a stick🧨
Glass Lewis and ISS are likely to publish opinions on $QXO, timeframe is imminent.
Price has languished, still not 100% clear they will vote a greenlight. If they say no, expect additional materials and filings to show up on Edgar right away as a rebuttal.
If they thumb it up, Capital Group has lost the war.
Arb spread at flat suggests it's all over. Signed, sealed, delivered.
Question remains if Capital Group is entirely out or keeps puking their guts into a wobbly tape. Big nut changing hands here.
Short interest has likely covered en mass, however the data is useless and won't represent the landscape for months. Shorts definitely earned a few victory pints on this one. The big nut is their exit window.
Gears showing up in all over the options tape, could be shorts or could be lurking large scale delta accumulatoooors. TBD
Patience remains super power.
$QXO, fin-twits most under covered gem, has dropped some news today.
The window for accumulating TopBuild votes is official closed.
@QXOInc vote is already locked in.
Regs got the all-clear.
And that means...the clock is officially on.
Proxy services are getting to work. I expect them to watch the price closely over the next 10 trading days.
So what's it gunna be? Price says no. Spread says yes.
Place your bets.
Patience is the super power.
It's a sparse community following this one on here, at least we've got random posts doing the deleted Houdini jig.
🍿🎬
You mean @SpaceX ICO, right?
I just spoke with Charles Schwab about the @SpaceX IPO. Schwab is one of a handful of brokerages selected by SpaceX to allocate IPO shares to retail investors.
If you have an account with Schwab, here’s how to prepare for the SpaceX IPO:
1) You first need to opt into IPOs from the Trade > IPOs page on Schwab's website.
2) After you've opted in and the IPO shows on the page, you can submit an Indication of Interest. The indication of interest will be able to be submitted when the Roadshow period begins for the stock. This is currently expected to be early June.
3) You need to have minimum $100,000 in total balance to be eligible to participate in the SpaceX IPO share allocation.
Schwab still doesn't know how many shares will be allocated to their brokerage at this point since SpaceX will be the one to decide that in the coming weeks. Just be prepared to check back on the IPO section of Schwab's website. Additional info will come later.
Lastly, don’t be surprised if you receive fewer IPO shares than you requested (if any at all). Demand for the limited number of available IPO shares will almost certainly be extremely high, and these participating brokerages will only get a certain sized allocation of shares to offer to retail investors, so it'll likely be tough to accommodate everyone. The best thing you can do is to just be prepared.
Note: SpaceX specifically stated in their S-1 filing that any purchase of their Class A common stock in this offering through these platforms will be at the same IPO price, and at the same time, as any other purchases in this offering, including purchases by institutions and other large investors, which means any retail investors that are lucky enough to get allocated some SpaceX IPO shares will pay the same price as the big guys.
CryptoWhipmaster retweeted
Elon Musk calculating SpaceX’s TAM for the S-1 filing
NEWS: SpaceX disclosed in its S-1 that it sees a $28.5 TRILLION total addressable market, which the company calls "the largest actionable TAM in human history."
With the accompanying music to Nat King Cole's Christmas Song...
" @gnoble79 with eyes all aglow, will find it hard to sleep tonight"
Is it possible for a superlative statement "most ridiculous isht in history" to also be an understatement?
SMH
🤦♂️
SpaceX wins the trophy for most ridiculous TAM analysis in public market history.
Saying your market is "$28.5 trillion" is the typa shit you see in F-tier startup pitch deck
Thank goodness they aren’t a $BLD install crew
Thesis on @QXOInc acquisition of TopBuild.
$QXO price ranges:
15-18: deal highly at at risk
18-20: deal at risk
20-22: deal likely
22-25: deal highly probable
Eyes on that arb spread.
Plenty of worthwhile $QXO observations in the last 48hrs. Not the least of which is a large compression of the merger arb yesterday which has retraced a bit this morning.
Odds of s snap back rally to $20 seem better than new lows. This makes p/c skew offsides atm.
FACT 1: There's going to be a massive push to close this deal from nearly a dozen angles.
FACT 2: stock pricing sub 18 is a threat to all but one of those stakeholders.
My thinking is they aren't going to tolerate that risk.
Of the dozen angles, the net short still wants QXO pricing here (or lower). But if there's a billion dollars of merge-arb pair on, that's 2B in unmanaged risk the moment a no-vote comes through. They can add to the pair, control more votes, influence outcome. Rational move. This compresses the spread.
What they can't do is make a recommendation in favor of the deal for the third parties, who influence decision making for the passive $BLD shareholders.
Those third parties will look at qxo common as currency and make an objective vote. A languishing stock price becomes a material risk, Glass Lewis and ISS have an obligation to be objective...not to prognosticate on future price of QXO. And there's no getting around the fact that since the deal announcement the broad market ($XHB, $ITB, SPHOME, etc) is down 15% while the deal currency $QXO is down 40%. It is not at all obvious to me that theses firms will be publishing thumb ups. @QXOInc knows this, they will be helping get the word out if reccos are in favor. If reccos are "against" QXO will just let them fallow.
In any event, at this point it is to the benefit of the merge-arb camp to help levitate the stock price. Higher priced currency makes the deal strong for the objective third pary, and the third party thumb up is what will ensure they complete their deal quickly, and avoid an unwind and/or additional weeks or months of borrow costs to hold the trade while folks argue about it until the outside date in January.
Plenty of worthwhile $QXO observations in the last 48hrs. Not the least of which is a large compression of the merger arb yesterday which has retraced a bit this morning.
Odds of s snap back rally to $20 seem better than new lows. This makes p/c skew offsides atm.
FACT 1: There's going to be a massive push to close this deal from nearly a dozen angles.
FACT 2: stock pricing sub 18 is a threat to all but one of those stakeholders.
My thinking is they aren't going to tolerate that risk.
Of the dozen angles, the net short still wants QXO pricing here (or lower). But if there's a billion dollars of merge-arb pair on, that's 2B in unmanaged risk the moment a no-vote comes through. They can add to the pair, control more votes, influence outcome. Rational move. This compresses the spread.
What they can't do is make a recommendation in favor of the deal for the third parties, who influence decision making for the passive $BLD shareholders.
Those third parties will look at qxo common as currency and make an objective vote. A languishing stock price becomes a material risk, Glass Lewis and ISS have an obligation to be objective...not to prognosticate on future price of QXO. And there's no getting around the fact that since the deal announcement the broad market ($XHB, $ITB, SPHOME, etc) is down 15% while the deal currency $QXO is down 40%. It is not at all obvious to me that theses firms will be publishing thumb ups. @QXOInc knows this, they will be helping get the word out if reccos are in favor. If reccos are "against" QXO will just let them fallow.
In any event, at this point it is to the benefit of the merge-arb camp to help levitate the stock price. Higher priced currency makes the deal strong for the objective third pary, and the third party thumb up is what will ensure they complete their deal quickly, and avoid an unwind and/or additional weeks or months of borrow costs to hold the trade while folks argue about it until the outside date in January.
I think the likelihood of a self-inflected wound is increasing.
I'm trying to find the right analogy, but struggle for now.
Vibes of the crowded movie theater with one exit, or a mutually causal self destruction, a game of chicken perhaps. Not quite right.
Maybe it's siblings arguing over a toy or cake.
They may both lose, if neither one accepts a lesser share.
Sub $16 Q X O puts the B L D transaction at risk of a shareholder no-vote. Deal terms allow this with no penalty.
RN, shorts are in the paint, but uncoverable in the absence of arbitrageurs. But arb traders are staring at a messy unwind and would have some tough medicine to take if the deal drops. The longer everyone stares at it the smaller the exit window. Headline roulette looms dangerously.
Macro slide and rate headwinds remain the lean of pure sellers, but how much more juice do they have to squeeze?
It's quite the show, and I'm not yet halfway through the 370pages.
Real humans invited for discourse int he replies ...
It's that time of the month, when we comb through a bunch of $QXO SEC filings.
"Break it down for us Whipmaster!" the people cried...
I'll do my best, here goes.
Form 4 tracks change of ownership. In this case, these are all for directors, who get stock awards instead of cash for their service as board members. @QXOInc vests them in a lump, only if the director fulfills the role for the entire year.
Each director has been granted additional equity for the coming year of service via a Restricted Stock Unit (RSU), as-of the recent annual meeting. Each director disposed of the RSU from last years term, when it vested on the day of the meeting.
In the same transaction they acquired the stock that underlies the RSU they are disposing of.
They also acquired a tax liability and owe the government cash.
Usually that tax liability is funded by disposing of some of the stock being granted via the RSU...
Noticing a sizable uptic in spam on $QXO, among other names. These are all X Platform violations, pinging off at at rapid cadence. @grok can't you sort this out preemptively? Seems like there should be a filter for this sort of stuff by now.
Each and every one of these bots posting this garbage are brand new spam-bots. All were created in April.
This is a coordinated campaign, someone's funding it.
It's ruining the UX @elonmusk . Any chance you can make it stop.
Brooooooootul.
Just when you thought all the good cinco de mayo jokes had been taken, internet 2026 just keeps on delivering...
PS: don't get too wrapped up in this crap. it's still a sim, and it's still cooked 😉
$QXO Buying intentionally, building one big stable mothership with the right pieces IMO. $BLD showing same branch YoY commercial/industrial revenues unchanged while battling macro headwinds. This is the type of foundation you can build on top of.
Meanwhile $BLDR doubling down on resi with all it's free cash and taking leverage up on the way into the storm.
These are very different management approaches.
Nice work @QXOInc
Patience is the superpower.
