@DLineCap
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DoubleLine is an investment management firm and investment adviser. @DLineFunds https://nitter.cf/t.co/s3F7La0AA3
Los Angeles
Joined March 2011
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DoubleLine’s corporate credit chief seeks spread-widening junctures in hyperscalers with better-than-IG index fundamentals.
doubleline.com/markets-insig…
With the 2-year Tsy at 4.89% and fed funds futures prices, Eric Dhall says, “The Fed has its back against the wall. The market has priced in 3 to 4 hikes. Warsh hasn’t won the argument against the market, and the market is calling his bluff.” 🎙️👇
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
U. of Michigan consumer sentiment survey finds perception that durable-goods purchases now would avoid higher prices in the future. That, Mark Kimbrough notes, could amount to “a self-perpetuating inflation wheel.”
youtube.com/watch?v=hDjHqLLG…
Elevated growth and inflation expectations explain, per DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Mark Kimbrough, a narrow tech-driven gain in the S&P 500 and higher yields along the U.S. Treasury curve as well as rising odds of fed funds hikes. 🎙️👇
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%. These expectations remain higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
Diesel and 30-year mortgages rarely share a narrative, but both are now approaching a 7 handle because the forces driving them higher increasingly trace back to the same war.
linkedin.com/pulse/uncomfort…
DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman joins Bloomberg to discuss why the front end still has the edge, whether Treasury's buyback plan can actually move yields and where he's finding selective value in hyperscaler debt.
youtube.com/watch?v=saXd9tGS…
Minutes’ Mark & Ryan review the FOMC’s rate hike and surprisingly hawkish outlook as well as a historically short Warsh press conference.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
DoubleLine’s Mark Kimbrough and Ryan Kimmel recap a little stock downturn and brief trend reversals during the Sept 14-18 market week on the latest Minutes.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Jeffrey Gundlach argues the Fed should have gone with "stun and done," hiking 50 bps instead of 25, why AI credit spreads are already flashing warning signs and his preference for equal-weighted over cap-weighted stocks.
youtube.com/watch?v=xusUcwrh…
DoubleLine Capital retweeted
Almost all federal revenue is already spoken for. Net interest and major entitlements now absorb 98.4% of federal receipts, leaving little room for everything else Washington funds.
linkedin.com/pulse/almost-al…
August retail sales came in stronger than expectations. Headline retail sales rose 1.24%MoM vs. 0.8% consensus and -0.5% the previous month. Year-over-year, retail sales grew 5.3% NSA. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales +1.21%MoM vs. +0.4% consensus and -0.3% the previous month.
The control group, the segment used in GDP, +1.36%MoM vs. +0.5% consensus and -0.4% the previous month. Nonstore retailers was the big driver of August’s rebound +2.6%MoM. That being said, the rebound was broad based with all but one sector higher on the month.
August import prices came in stronger than expected; headline import prices rose 0.7%MoM vs. +0.5% consensus and -0.3% the previous month (revised up from -0.4%); ex-petroleum import prices rose 0.8%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus.
On a year-over-year basis headline import prices rose 7.0% vs. 6.6% consensus. Industrial supplies prices rose 1.3%MoM (+17.4%YoY); capital goods +0.9%MoM (+7.3%YoY); consumer goods +0.5%MoM (+2.4%YoY).
Export prices +8.6%YoY.
In 2020 the Fed absorbed $1.8T in Treasury duration in five months, anchoring rates as deficits ballooned. That backstop is gone. Now a $700B capex cycle is competing for the same capital, which maybe why 10-year sits near 5%.
linkedin.com/pulse/when-wash…
DoubleLine Capital retweeted
A 5% 30-year U.S. yield might not look extreme historically, but net interest expense to GDP is now 18.5% of federal revenue, above its prior 1991 high. That makes the fiscal sensitivity to the long end much greater than the yield level alone suggests.
linkedin.com/pulse/federal-i…
Minutes’ Jeff & Mark talk next week’s FOMC meeting, another important early event in the tenure of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 👇🎙️
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Minutes’ Jeff & Mark review the Inflation Week-focus in the macro news, breaking down the PPI and CPI prints.
youtu.be/eSGCrynqRcw
DoubleLine’s Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough recap a holiday-shortened market week on the latest Minutes, noting the odds for an FOMC rate hike rose sharply.🎙️👇📈
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Oil prices are up 66% this year, but the Canadian dollar has barely budged. Canada’s deepening trade fight with the U.S. has weakened the old link between rising oil prices and a stronger loonie.
linkedin.com/pulse/oil-surgi…
