DK retweeted
Getting ready to scroll the timeline and see all the degen Allen/Cook/Adams/Puka + over SGPs at awful prices
DK retweeted
TLDR: Here’s a bunch of lies and excuses why I’m a stiff, and too broke to pay the bet I lost.
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DK retweeted
If you make a 8-9 leg SGP on one game, you're not allowed to complain when you fall 1 leg short
Let's skip the discussion about correlation nerfing your odds deep into the -EV category on certain books (cough* FD)
But let's dive deeper into the fact that these SGPs are full of legs that are overtly -EV as well. You can compound your Expected Value by taking multiple EV legs, sure. But the vast majority are taking the -200, -300 types of builders cause they're "safer"
Yeah sure 7+ Keon receptions is amazing EV at +1300 Bally vs +680 FD but you never see that leg included. No, you see the 3+ rec instead at -186 Bally compared to -180 Fanduel instead
There is no such thing as a safe leg, -200 Bijan didn't hit, -420 Oregon didn't hit, -340 LSU didn't hit
Gathering 90% hit rate legs just to get a bigger payout is already a losing game to begin with. The price you're sacrificing is so often overlooked these days
DK retweeted
Assuming there’s nothing being left out of the story, what a win-win for all of us.
Either @JoeA_NFL stiffs the $8k and has to leave this place forever, or he pays the $8k and we always get to mention how he tried to stiff and only paid when called out.
Thursday night showdown youtu.be/iNQuY94_8Ho









