Corn is 44% harvested as of Oct 18, against a 52% five-year average. The gap has grown each week since Sep 27: 4, then 6, now 8 points. Iowa is at 26% against a 50% average, and soybeans are at 64% against 65%. #harvest26 🚜

Jan #Soybeans Note. 🌱 📝

Dec #Corn Note. 🌽 📝

Russia's October wheat exports are pegged at 2.8 MMT by SovEcon, down 45% from 5.1 MMT a year ago. Total grain exports 3.15 MMT vs the 5.4 MMT peak in Oct 2025. Black Sea supply is running light while the port strikes continue. Room is opening for US and EU wheat in import tenders. Watch Egypt and Southeast Asia buying. #wheat 🌾 #Russia 🇷🇺

Brazil soy is 30.38% planted, a record pace vs 22.80% a year ago and a 21.28% 5-yr avg. An early Brazil harvest brings export competition for U.S. beans sooner. Keep sales plans on schedule #soybeans #Brazil

You want a market that appears “cheap” … hogs. Absolutely zero love.

NOAA’s CPC: 83% odds the Oct–Dec El Niño is the strongest since 1950. Sep–Nov 54%, Nov–Jan 70%. Sept Niño-3.4 at +2.1°C, Niño-1+2 at +3.9°C. The peak lands right on Brazil’s planting-to-pod-fill window. Watch Mato Grosso rains. #Brazil 🇧🇷 #corn 🌽 #soybeans 🌱

Oct 19th Trading Notes: 📝 🌽 #Corn holds MAX #SHORT on a +199K net (-16K on the day, the biggest cut on the board, -32K since the Oct 13 COT), 70% of range, #bearish bias with 473'0 under P476, S 471/468, R 479/484 🌱 #Soybeans hold SMALL #SHORT on a +217K net (-3K, -21K since COT), 89% of range, #bearish bias but 1262'0 sits over P1260, S 1254/1248, R 1267/1273 🌱 #Soymeal drops to #NEUTRAL from SMALL LONG on a +193K net (-6K, -13K since COT), 96% of range with the EXTREME badge but back under the 207K record long, while #soyoil holds MODERATE #SHORT on a +79K net (-2K), 68% of range; #oilshare slips to 48.3% from 48.5% and falls back under the 9 day EMA while staying under the 20 day EMA, as board #crush holds $2.64 above both EMAs 🌾 #Wheat slides to LARGE #SHORT from MODERATE SHORT on a -42K net (-10K, -9K since COT), 49% of range, #bearish bias with 661'6 just under P662, S 654/648, R 668/676 🌽 Crowding: #meal 96%, #beans 89%, #cotton 76%, #corn 70%, #soyoil 68%, #KCWheat 61% holding LARGE #SHORT on a +14K net (-4K) of historical range 🐂 Divergence: #cattle hold MODERATE #LONG on a +52K net (+3K), 36% of range, #feeders hold MAX #LONG on a +10K net (+1K), 42% of range, both #bullish bias with cattle 228.350 over P228.050 but feeders 341.900 under P342.275; #hogs ease to MODERATE #SHORT from LARGE SHORT on a -50K net (+4K), 0% of range and still past the -44K weekly record; three labels flip vs Oct 16 and no bias changes ☁️ #Cotton holds LARGE #SHORT, -1K on the day (9th of 10 on the board), 76% of range 📆 #Today: #Brazil IGP-10 inflation 6:00am CT, #ExportInspections 10:00am CT, #CropProgress 3:00pm CT; #crude 101.682 (+0.272), $DXY 101.848 (+0.011), #gold 4171.20 (+4.81) ☀️🌡️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 7-day precip thru Oct 26 #Nebraska 0.19-0.53in, #Iowa 0.02-0.29in, #Kansas 0.06-0.56in, #Missouri 0.02-0.05in, #Oklahoma 0.04-0.41in, #Illinois 0.01-0.02in; the rain stays west with central #Nebraska and central #Kansas topping out near a half inch while #Illinois, eastern #Iowa and #Missouri run dry, so the eastern harvest keeps rolling; in #Brazil the ECMWF 7-day puts Mato Grosso and the center-west at 7-30mm with the heaviest totals of 150-300mm, max 372mm, across Parana, Santa Catarina and eastern Paraguay, while northern Rio Grande do Sul runs 75-150mm and Argentina's core stays mostly under 10mm outside the northeast

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John 10:10 🙏🏼

Mato Grosso soy planting jumps to 51.86% (Imea, Oct 16), up 18.6 pts in a week and up from 10.2% two weeks ago. Médio-Norte leads at 69.3%, Oeste at 61.6%, on 13.05 million hectares expected. Rains arrived and Brazil’s top soy state crossed the halfway mark by mid-October. A fast Mato Grosso start opens the door to an early harvest and heavy Brazilian export flow in early 2027. That is more competition for US soybeans in Q1. #Brazil 🇧🇷 #soybean 🌱

Nov Feeder #Cattle Note. 🐂 📝