Why are the Europeans so keen on a ceasefire before negotiations take place, even though the US now concedes it is an unnecessary precondition (which is objectively true)? This post is a free of charge lesson on the European way of thinking and the position they find themselves in. First, we must understand what is at stake for the European elites. Recall they said this conflict was a battle for liberal democracy, for the credibility of NATO and even for the West itself. So, what does it mean if they lose? What if Ukraine cannot join NATO? How would they explain it all to their electorates? Secondly, for their own political careers, they know that this war has cost far more than is commonly acknowledged. Much more than even the hundred plus billion sent in direct economic and military aid from Europe, it has savaged industry (especially Germany’s), increased unemployment (with the commensurate benefits payouts and lower tax receipts) and pushed inflation higher, making everybody a bit poorer, even as it has deprived European exporters of the largest consumer market in Europe. One day, somebody will do a full accounting of this war, and find that it has cost Europe multiple trillions of €. Remember: they rejected multiple opportunities to avoid war or end it. They admitted they used Minsk as a way to trick the Russians into allowing Europe and the US to build up the Ukrainian army rather than as a means to bring the conflict under control. They rejected out of hand negotiations before the war. They rejected the Spring 2022 peace terms, which were objectively better than anything available now. What happens to leaders who lose wars they could have avoided or ended earlier, and in doing so cost trillions of pounds of damage to their economies? Deep in their limbic systems, European elites know the answer. Finally, as much as they hate the populists at home, they hate The Putin—for the same Manichean reasons. He is an avatar for those against their project: the ever farther opening and lightening of societies, whether to capital and peoples, or to transgressive cultural influence, or supranational control, or to the erosion of national identity. Beating Russia has become personal for them. For Europe's elites, these are therefore desperate times. Here’s how they hope to rescue the situation. 1/ Secure a ceasefire. 2/ Send troops to man the front lines and fighter jets to patrol the skies. 3/ If Russia was to be unsatisfied with negotiations, it would therefore have to kill British, French, German and Finnish troops, and knock Typhoons and Rafales out of the skies, rather than just restart attacks against Ukraine. 4/ Problem: the Europoors know that they could not long sustain a war with Russia. Therefore, they must also get US security guarantees. They are happy for their fighting men to be killed if it drags the US into the war, but not just to be humiliated even more. 5/ They can then negotiate with Russia from a position of strength: Russia's ability to coerce is leavened by knowledge restarting the war would mean WWIII. This would also mean Europe could take maximalist lines on Ukrainian membership of NATO (or a crypto-NATO arrangement), weapons placement in Ukraine, piling on economic sanctions, etc. They will sell this as follows. Ceasefire: “If you really wanted peace, you would stop fighting to talk. How can you negotiate peace while still killing Ukrainians?” Troops on the ground: “Obviously for a ceasefire to hold, there has to be some monitoring and deterrent.” US security guarantees: “The US has no boots on the ground. It is just a guarantee to make sure the Russians don’t try our luck with us, and if you give it, we promise they won’t.” None of these sales pitches stands up to even a cursory analysis, but the press will swallow it whole, allowing for a full court propaganda press. There: I explained what the Europeans are up to and why the Kremlin would be mad to accept it. You’re welcome.