Curiosity retweeted
The Jords Podcast EP5
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Doomerism
0:00 So back or so over
1:02 I was once a doomer
3:01 Why being long is more profitable
4:25 The pleasure of being the last one standing
6:33 Your secret knowledge is already priced in
7:58 Negativity and recency bias
10:21 The fading affect bias
13:15 How to deal with scammer fatigue and burnout
15:38 Log off and zoom out
17:35 When the music starts
19:16 It's never over forever
21:06 A stupid optimist outperforms a smart pessimist
25:26 Why doomers only hurt themselves
26:45 Build instead of narrating from the sidelines
28:01 A builder or a wrecker
28:57 There was no golden era
My son took his first steps today.
So many emotions. So much joy and pride watching him grow up.
Being a dad is the best thing that’s ever happened to me.
I’m so happy 😄
Still crazy to me that the strategy of being early (and maximizing your cost per $PAPER), which everyone was talking about, actually turned out to be the right play.
The fact that everyone on my TL was saying the same thing is exactly why I decided to fade it.
Maybe using my TL to figure out whether I’m late to a trade or have an edge over the market isn’t such a good idea.
You guys are too good ahah
Faded Papertrade. Felt like I had zero edge.
But it seems like those who got in very early are eating good, and will eat even better when the first 99% payout gets funded with millions.
It's fine. I'm trying to minimize decisions I might regret, especially when I don't see a clear edge.
Well played to those who ate.
Faded Papertrade. Felt like I had zero edge.
But it seems like those who got in very early are eating good, and will eat even better when the first 99% payout gets funded with millions.
It's fine. I'm trying to minimize decisions I might regret, especially when I don't see a clear edge.
Well played to those who ate.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more obvious things come to mind. Things that make more and more sense as I gain experience, and that I could've added, like:
- Patience. Constantly needed, whether it's in execution in general or simply waiting for the next opportunity.
- Risk management. Probably the key to survival.
- Execution. Entries, exits, sizing, invalidation, etc. So damn hard to master.
Even though today wiped out all my gains since the beginning of the month, I can't help but think how much I love what I do, and how badly I want to get better at it.
No matter the market conditions, a big part of our results, whether we win, lose, or avoid losing, comes down to our own decisions.
It's not just luck. It's us.
And that's so damn exciting.
Same cycles, over and over again.
I feel like I've lived through today so many times over the past two years. And there's a good chance we'll just keep going through these mini cycles, without ever really seeing the kind of market we had a few years ago.
It is what it is.
So, a little recap of what I need to keep doing, what I should improve, and some random thoughts:
- Only bid coins that make sense to me. Basically, Bitcoin and a few onchain businesses with a clear product, operating in promising sectors.
- Keep avoiding things I don't understand or know enough about. Whether it's memes, anything related to inference, or even privacy.
For the last two, no matter how much I talk with Grok or GPT, everything still seems too abstract to me. I just can't separate the good projects from the bad ones.
- Stop caring about what others are doing or making. No need to go too deep into this, but we all have our own reality, our own sensitivities and abilities.
No point comparing what we're going through internally with what others choose to show publicly.
- Take profits / Cash out. Maybe even a bit more aggressively.
Stables give me flexibility and the ability to catch new opportunities. And cashing out matters because I have a family to feed lol.
On that note, whenever the market goes up, you always feel like you're not exposed enough. That's such a trap.
I'm slowly starting to understand that cash is a position too. And it's much harder to truly internalize than it sounds.
- Learn to do nothing. Probably one of the hardest things for me.
But I genuinely think improving on this could completely change the trajectory of my journey.
There are opportunities every single day, but most of them aren't for me.
- Stay humble. Of course, I have some skills, but luck has also played a role in my journey.
Being in the right place at the right time doesn't mean I'll be able to pull it off again.
- Pay more attention to my family life.
I tend to put work before almost everything else.
And my wife is incredible. She gives me so much time to lock in by taking care of our home and our son, without ever making me feel any pressure.
That's great, but obviously not something sustainable in the long run.
My goal isn't to end up rich without the woman who's always been by my side, or without having watched my son grow up.
And objectively, I could manage my time much better.
- And finally, no stress.
I'm only 27. Not having 7 figures isn't the end of the world.
I have way more time than X tries to make me believe.
Thanks to everyone who reads my posts and interacts with me.
It's cool to be on this journey with you guys.
Same cycles, over and over again.
I feel like I've lived through today so many times over the past two years. And there's a good chance we'll just keep going through these mini cycles, without ever really seeing the kind of market we had a few years ago.
It is what it is.
So, a little recap of what I need to keep doing, what I should improve, and some random thoughts:
- Only bid coins that make sense to me. Basically, Bitcoin and a few onchain businesses with a clear product, operating in promising sectors.
- Keep avoiding things I don't understand or know enough about. Whether it's memes, anything related to inference, or even privacy.
For the last two, no matter how much I talk with Grok or GPT, everything still seems too abstract to me. I just can't separate the good projects from the bad ones.
- Stop caring about what others are doing or making. No need to go too deep into this, but we all have our own reality, our own sensitivities and abilities.
No point comparing what we're going through internally with what others choose to show publicly.
- Take profits / Cash out. Maybe even a bit more aggressively.
Stables give me flexibility and the ability to catch new opportunities. And cashing out matters because I have a family to feed lol.
On that note, whenever the market goes up, you always feel like you're not exposed enough. That's such a trap.
I'm slowly starting to understand that cash is a position too. And it's much harder to truly internalize than it sounds.
- Learn to do nothing. Probably one of the hardest things for me.
But I genuinely think improving on this could completely change the trajectory of my journey.
There are opportunities every single day, but most of them aren't for me.
- Stay humble. Of course, I have some skills, but luck has also played a role in my journey.
Being in the right place at the right time doesn't mean I'll be able to pull it off again.
- Pay more attention to my family life.
I tend to put work before almost everything else.
And my wife is incredible. She gives me so much time to lock in by taking care of our home and our son, without ever making me feel any pressure.
That's great, but obviously not something sustainable in the long run.
My goal isn't to end up rich without the woman who's always been by my side, or without having watched my son grow up.
And objectively, I could manage my time much better.
- And finally, no stress.
I'm only 27. Not having 7 figures isn't the end of the world.
I have way more time than X tries to make me believe.
Thanks to everyone who reads my posts and interacts with me.
It's cool to be on this journey with you guys.
Crazy market. You guys find it easy? I really don’t.
One week you have to hold, the next you have to sell quickly.
One day, the winner is X, the next day it’s Y. While Y runs, X is bleeding.
One day I do everything right, the next I roundtrip half the profits.
The mistake that fucks me the most is overtrading. Probably triggered by a lack of patience, FOMO, frustration, greed.
Am I a gambling addict? A junkie trader? Don’t know. Maybe that’s a bit extreme. Well... maybe it’s not totally wrong either.
I’m trying more and more to write about my actions before, during, and after taking a trade. The goal is to have as much data as possible and be more precise about what I’m doing wrong.
It also acts as a guardrail, but unfortunately, it’s still not a deeply rooted habit, and too often I forget to do it. Lack of professionalism, tbh.
What saves me is that I’ve learned to cut my losers relatively quickly, and from time to time I find a play that outperforms all my bullshit.
Being constantly online helps too. Having an accurate TL, and a few years in the ecosystem.
Anyway, even though I’m profitable, I can clearly see the limits of the way I’m doing things. It’s small wins and a lot of stress.
Rah, I’m probably being too hard on myself.
If I could just reduce the amount of stupid shit I do, my PnL would improve drastically.
Nice reminder. I was starting to get greedy.
The overall euphoria of such a favorable market makes me forget some good habits.
What worked for me so far wasn’t timing the exact top, but taking profits along the way. I still haven’t learned how to time tops since then, so there’s no reason to believe I’ll magically be able to do it now.
And CT certainly won’t help me with that ahah. We’re all retarded bulls here.
So, bullrun? Absolutely, let’s go. Infinite targets.
But I’m still gonna stay reasonable, take profits, compound the wins, and move at my own pace.
I know that by doing this, I might be limiting myself. I might miss out on some extraordinary profits. Maybe I won’t have a 7-fig success story to tell anytime soon.
I’m fine with that.
Worth noting that I’m still heavily exposed, and I don’t plan to sell my spot BTC anytime
The Jords Podcast EP2 – Greed
0:00 Welcome back, and why this episode came early
1:03 Greed, and the problems that come with it
3:53 Why it matters, the risk that builds wealth also destroys it
8:14 What a feed of other people's best days does to your mental health
10:26 My initial goals when I entered the space, and how I moved the goalposts
12:53 Solana, FTX, my lowest point, and realizing 90% down isn't a guaranteed bottom
15:43 The privilege of worrying about this at all
17:56 What actually helps, goals, a time capsule and gratitude
21:25 One last cycle, and why everyone tells you that you're running out of time while you're not
25:57 Closing thoughts
Also, I’m impressed by how so many of you guys can handle this kind of volatility, huge uPnL swings, and still have so much conviction.
Everyone has their own life, their own reality, and I don’t envy any of you. But I genuinely respect and admire your skills.
Liquidity on $DIME is like 1000x worse. It can get silly.
Team/VCs are locked until 2027.
Now that $DRV opened the door, people will probably start looking for beta plays. (It already started.)
RFQ, team, Paradigm, liquidity, buybacks, etc. make Paradex a pretty good contender for the beta play with one of the better r/r setups.
Didn't get filled on a decent size, (current bag is ridiculous.) Just playing it as a lil bet for now.
But I think it could become a good play during this cycle if the options narrative keeps growing.
Feels like options are starting to have their "Pendle moment" with yield tokenization: complex products slowly becoming mainstream.
Like Kool said, Derive will probably lose a bit of market share as the overall market grows.
If Paradex manages to capture even 10-15% of that, it could probably reprice much higher.
But that's more of a longer-term thesis. For now, I'm not planning to hold a long-term position.
