few understand how bullish this really is
APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America.
Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but remain flat for the S&P 493.
Meanwhile, Gartner estimates $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment risk by 2030.
The key takeaway: AI investment is booming, but returns outside Big Tech remain elusive.
Crystal Ball Capital retweeted
There are times where I have writers block and there are times where my desire to write supersedes everything else. Need to get a private draft to Nigel by Monday to try and get this out by next weekend.
can’t believe $EOS.AX really just did the meme with a 20% intraday roundtrip
$TEM insiders really took a page out of my book on market timing😭
shouldn’t $AEVA be up a lot more than 13% on their first hyperscaler deal for NPO?
$CCXI linkedin alpha - Agility board member Matt Ocko said they have almost no China supply chain exposure already and expect to be zero by EOY
TRUMP TO BAN CHINESE ROBOTS, POWER INVERTERS
The Trump administration is set to ban imports of new Chinese humanoid robots, quadruped robots, and connected power inverters.
The move aims to protect the U.S. AI supply chain from cybersecurity and national security risks while encouraging manufacturers to shift production to the U.S. amid growing demand for AI infrastructure.
Crystal Ball Capital retweeted
12:03pm: Trump wants ceasefire with Iran
12:05pm: Trump declares victory
12:07pm: Trump is sending marines into Iran
12:08pm: Trump is not putting boots on the ground
12:11pm: Trump does not want ceasefire
12:12pm: Trump says Iran has no people left
12:16pm: Trump declares victory
12:17pm: Trump asks for ceasefire with Iran
12:18pm: Trump asks for help with Iran
12:23pm: Trump says NATO are poo faces
12:29pm: Trump says Iran begging for ceasefire
12:31pm: Trump says everything is perfect
12:36pm: Trump says $500 oil is a good thing
12:37pm: Trump demands Iran opens Hormuz
12:39pm: Trump says Hormuz was never closed
12:41pm: Trump says US not at war with Iran
12:42pm: Trump declares victory in Iran
12:44pm: Trump says war with Iran for nukes
12:45pm: Trump says Iran never had nukes
12:46pm: Trump says objectives very clear
12:47pm: Trump says world owes him thank you
12:51pm: Trump says world are poo faces
12:53pm: Trump gives Trump peace prize
12:57pm: Trump declares victory in Iran
12:59pm: Trump bombs Iran
1:03pm: Trump wants a ceasefire with Iran
*repeats hourly*
Crystal Ball Capital retweeted
Just walked in the front door after work.
My 5 year old son ran to greet me.
"Hi dad!" he said excitedly.
As he went to hug me, I grabbed his shoulders and said, "Bud, I think you're overestimating the value of human relationships. I read that in a Substack today. Everything is different now. I mean - it was different before, but it's super different now."
He blinked, clutching a plastic dinosaur. I couldn't believe it. Attachment to physical objects in a post-digital era. I gently rotated him toward the hallway mirror.
“Look,” I continued, “do you see that reflection? That’s legacy hardware. Carbon-based. High latency. Limited processing power."
As I kicked off my shoes, my 3 year old daughter came running up to me with a drawing she made in preschool this morning.
She was glowing. Beaming.
“Look, Daddy! I made this for you!”
I glanced at it and explained that Nano Banana one-shotted her entire effort. Her job prospects were hopeless if she didn't understand this.
“Sweetie,” I said gently, kneeling down, “this crayon sun? It’s 2022. Nano Banana can generate 100,000 emotionally resonant suns before you finish saying ‘primary colors.’ You need API access.”
She asked what an API was.
“Exactly,” I said, standing up.
The crying started around then. Very emotional household. Understandable. They hadn't read *the essay.*
My wife heard the children crying in the foyer and came to check on us.
"I don't understand what's happening here, but why don't we sit down for dinner and talk about this?" she asked. "I made chicken pot pies!"
“Dinner? Your contribution to a world where Amex and Mastercard are heading to zero by 2028 is DINNER?!”
I started laughing.
“Uh yeah…” I explained: “Cooking is a pre-Claude activity. Do you realize I can vibecode a functional DoorDash competitor in about 8 minutes now? It's all right there in the Substack.”
As the kids continued sobbing, my wife looked at me in disbelief.
“Okay, okay. Maybe it would take me 15 minutes to spin up a functional Doordash competitor,” I conceded. “Payments integration can be annoying.”
She asked if I was feeling alright.
“Better than alright,” I said. “I’ve seen the roadmap. I've read the Substack.”
I gestured broadly at the house: “This? This is a future data center. The hugs? Deprecated. The drawings? Automatable. The chicken pot pies? Disrupted.”
My wife folded her arms. “You used to like chicken pot pies.”
“That was before I could prompt at a few hundred words per minute,” I said.
$PSIX Fair points, and I’m not saying business growth won’t continue. But with share price up 700% in a year, much of that growth is already priced in, and EPS inflated by a one-time tax benefit could further stretch near-term expectations. So I’m not convinced by the R/R here.
$PSIX EBITDA was +60% y/y
They are expanding mftg capacity, so growth should continue
15x this year EBITDA not really a stretched valuation given growth and expected continued growth
"The Company is focused on leading the business through a growth phase with a stronger balance sheet while strategically prioritizing products that demonstrate strong demand and higher gross margins. Consistent with those goals, the Company is actively pursuing several initiatives to enhance and expand manufacturing capacity to meet the increasing demand from data center markets. Pivoting the focus to these markets is driving current net sales growth and profitability. Through expanded capacity and strategic partnerships, management expects this positive trend to continue."
Unpopular stance and could age like milk, but I’ve exited my $PSIX position for now, locking in 154% profits.
Q2 looks excellent on the surface with 138% EPS growth, but that includes a one-time $29.2M tax benefit. Strip that out and EPS was basically flat YoY at $0.95.
At a $100 share price, that puts 2025 P/E (H1 annualized) at about 28x excluding the tax benefit. That’s still reasonable given the strong top-line growth but not cheap anymore.
Plus I’m worried the reported 138% EPS growth will set unrealistic expectations for the coming quarters.
Bottom line, I’m not convinced by the near-term R/R here anymore.
$GSRT $NKLR seems like an interesting story on paper, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable holding through the merger. Terra Innovatum only started talking to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission early this year and has no team beyond the founders. Yet they project a faster commercial timeline than $SMR and most other players.














