2026 is frothy, no argument. What's different from 2021 is how people get paid. A hot early-stage position can now be sold at a big markup two years in, no IPO needed. That's not how I want to invest, but it's changing what a lot of investors are buying for. Most of the world's biggest markets don't run on value creation. Currencies, art, commodities, collectibles, lots of real estate. Nobody buying a painting thinks it's going to compound. You buy because you think someone else will want it more later. Scarcity, status, momentum, a story. Venture was supposed to be the opposite. You backed something early, waited a decade, and only got paid if it became a real business. Selling early was rare and kind of a red flag. Secondaries are now in the same ballpark as IPOs as a way venture gets paid. Tender offers are routine. Whole platforms exist just to trade private shares. I get emails every other day offering to buy Higgsfield stock at a gigantic premium over the Series A. I have no clue what that business looks like in 2040. I do know Series A investors could hand their LPs a great return by selling today. And Higgsfield isn't even one of the top names. A few years ago that offer mostly didn't exist. So early-stage might become about finding companies people will want access to in two years, not companies that create enormous value over 20. I don't love that. It makes the job a lot less intellectual, and figuring out what actually becomes a great business is half the reason I like doing this. But you have to call a spade a spade. Frothy doesn't mean nobody makes money. A ton of people have already made a ton of money buying early and selling into the hype, and a ton more will. I don't blame them. Just don't be the one holding the bag at the end.

The key words in Martin's post are "relative to a smaller competitor." A real network effect means the leader's lead gets wider as it grows. If a rival with half your users can offer about the same thing, you don't have one. Quick history and a framework below.