相信自己！ 山寨的价值是0！ 投资就是反着来！ 贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉！只在自己的能力圈内交易！严格遵守交易纪律 慢慢搭建、完善交易系统！财富的双峰确认！
Hong Kong
Joined May 2023
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潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography.
The core new area of risk from this viewpoint is, unfortunately, ML-DSA / FHE / lattices.
(and it's also another reason, along with quantum, why ECDSA might fall even faster than expected, hence the "fresh address" recommendation)
So far most people have been in the mode of thinking "elliptic curves broken, hashes safe, lattices safe". But there is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math.
The basic threat model is: factoring is something that naively takes 2^(n/2) time, but over decades smart people have found and optimized number field sieves, and degraded that to 2^O(n^(1/3)), which is why RSA keys and signatures need to be ~400 bytes (and not 64 bytes). What if there are skeletons in the closet like that, both for elliptic curves and lattices, that we are simply not smart enough to discover - but bots soon will be?
This is a major part of the reason why for the past year ethereum's lean roadmap has been going in the "hash-only" direction: no lattices, no ML-DSA, no Falcon, no lattice-based commitments inside ZK proofs, etc. Signatures in lean ethereum are all hash-based, either WOTS or SPHINCS-.
For signatures and proofs, we already know how to go hash-only. The bigger challenge is for *public-key encryption* - and this goes far beyond blockchains. Secure communication, anonymizing protocols, lots of things need public-key encryption.
And unfortunately there are long-standing mathematical theorems showing why public-key encryption cannot be done with hashes alone. You have to have some kind of trapdoor object that has at least one form of usable "structure" - either group theory (incl. isogenies) or lattices or code-based or potentially in the future even more newfangled and spooky things (local mixing?). But for anything that has structure, you should assume that AI will make at least some progress in breaking that structure. Here, one reasonable inference is that if you want to make something plausibly long-term secure, multiply the key sizes by 10.
To me that's a very plausible world and something not at all extreme to predict. If AI will bring us 50 years of math in 2 years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a "naive factoring -> GNFS" level of improvement to our ability to break lattices. In that world, lattices will still exist, but they will have to be significantly bigger to guarantee the same level of safety.
And at those new larger sizes, hash-based constructions will beat lattice-based constructions on concrete efficiency in every use case where hash-based constructions are possible at all.
Theoretically, of course it's possible that hashes are broken too (eg. P = NP would imply that). But I think P = NP is very unlikely. And intuitively, it's much more likely that a mathematical object has exactly no exploitable structure (like hashes are intended to), than that a mathematical object has exactly ~3 forms of exploitable structure (for elliptic curves: associativity, Schoof, pairings) and not some secret fourth form of structure we have not yet discovered that greatly degrades its security (for elliptic curves, ECDLP and pairing security). Similar for LWE, SVP, RLWE and the zoo of lattice problems.
For this reason, we do not yet see any reason to worry and start padding the byte size of hashes (if we start to worry more, we would pad the round count first before doing anything to the byte size).
Concrete TLDR, my own personal views:
* Hash-based > lattice-based, in those situations where hash-based is possible at all
* For anything lattice-based, be much more paranoid on param sizes. Remember that blockchains are only a small portion of the cryptography story; this point goes far beyond blockchains and applies to eg. access to websites, secure messaging, Tor / VPNs ...
* For privacy protocols, strongly favor NOT putting encrypted notes onchain. Instead, send them offchain through some third-party mechanism.
* If it's not difficult for you, keeping your funds in addresses which have not yet been used to make a transaction is a good idea. If it's easy for you, do it. **But be careful about migrations; I personally have lost more money in botched migrations than I have lost in all hacks combined**.
* For multisig wallets, doing confirmations offchain is better than onchain, because this way the signatures of signer wallets do not get exposed to the public, so if ECDSA falls to AI much faster than expected, at least the multisig "gracefully degrades" to a 1-of-1 where the 1 is whoever was gathering the signatures - a much better place to be than "anyone can take the money"
firefly.social/post/x/210783…
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
BREAKING: Vitalik states that @Pumpfun has killed memecoins by turning new retail investors entering the crypto space into degenerate gamblers and with no real-world use, the industry will die fast.
He also stated that @pumpfun has been a net negative to crypto since it was released in 2024 by draining the $crypto ecosystem and turning retail into gamblers not investors.
He also said the platform is setup like a slot machine you keep clicking until your fully drained - pump ultimately wins but retail loses.
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
刚刚一姐在币安广场直播，明确表示不支持抠字眼性质的 Meme，我也认同这一点，从今天开始我也不会再购买任何抠字眼性质的 Meme 了。
抠字眼 Meme 目前已经被捆绑发币集团自动化了，他们实时监控 @cz_binance 和 @heyibinance 的推文，用 AI 快速分析出最好的发币角度，然后脚本自动发币 + 自动捆绑买入 + 自动逐步卖出，这个过程中甚至无需手动干预，全自动化。
他们把这个模式当成了印钞机，如果我们一起抵制的话，可以为这个市场省下很多流动性，把注意力和流动性投入在更值得投入的项目。
我正在币安广场进行语音直播“币安智能产品发布会中文 AMA｜主持人：Sisi｜嘉宾：一姐、Jeff、Jackson”，和我一起在此处收听：
app.binance.com/uni-qr/cspa/…
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
《Vitalik：AI 将成为新的 UI，区块链会最先面对它带来的安全挑战》（作者 Vitalik Buterin 编译 吴说区块链） 以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 在新加坡 OKX NOW 2026 峰会表示，AI 正同时成为区块链领域最大的机会与风险，并可能逐渐成为新的链上用户界面。他透露，约一个月前曾完全绕过传统 UI，仅让本地 AI Agent 编写脚本，在约 5 分钟内完成 ENS 信息更新。Vitalik 预计，未来两年以太坊交易将更便宜、更具隐私性，AI Agent 将更多参与链上操作，应用甚至可能由 Bot 编写；但 Prompt Injection、AI 对交易意图的错误理解及硬件可信等问题也将成为新的安全挑战。 阅读全文： wublock123.com/articles/vita…
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
Vitalik：AI 将成为新的用户界面
2026 年 10 月 6 日，以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin @VitalikButerin 在新加坡 OKX NOW @okx 活动中表示，AI 将在越来越多的场景中成为新的用户界面。他分享了让本地 AI Agent 编写脚本、约五分钟完成 ENS 更新的经历，并认为无需传统界面即可完成复杂链上操作将成为常态。这可能减少传统前端带来的安全风险，但也会引入提示词注入、AI 自身是否安全，以及能否准确理解链上操作等新挑战。
来源：OKX NOW
BSC真难玩 这波除了marscoin和牛来
一个都没跑出来
因为marscoin和牛来，这两的庄，本来就不是BSC的人，而且是国际庄，我之前推文讲过。
BSC就目前这群中文车头的吃相和表里不一，能起来就怪了。
还有许多人总是抱着自己的幻想去看待事物，比如之前龙虾涨，其实和Ai、中文币，都没有什么关系，单纯因为筹码结构，单纯因为洗的够多+足够便宜+控筹。
打个比方：韭菜们能相信什么“中国人能飞”在最高国际热度的时候起不来，后面几个KOL组好局了去接盘。
不如记好 5 个字—中国人能分。
没有低价筹码和小号塞满，他们一个字也不会喊，即使这个角度和叙事与自己曾经喜欢的一些东西非常相关，也视而不见。
场内都是互割、存量，所以他们为了继续维持“赚钱”感，当然选择自己发，然后出来说谎。
同理，现在的玩法，车头们喊不喊，其实和叙事、角度，没有关系，单纯就看筹码够不够便宜、能不能蹭（钓）到官方回复。
接盘的都是群友，你们都心知肚明，而我不干这种事，我赚不了这种装恶心逼还天天吹自己的钱。
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
My mentor taught me that geo arbitrage will always be the thing that makes money
You just copy whatever is making money in the west, make it a little bit better and more local, and sell it in other countries
Me and a friend grew to $350k mrr making a malaysian openclaw alternative and we pretty much just stole the whole playbook
There are literally endless opportunities like this
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
thoughts on Robinhood chain eco
ON A MACRO LEVEL
Robinhood chain didn't take off because it has superior tech
otherwise Optimism, Arbitrum (which RH chain is built on), etc would be among the top EVMs today
it took off because Robinhood is one of the world's most significant retail trading platforms, with tens of millions of users who are generally wealthier than the average CEX user cohort
crypto participants have also long considered Robinhood the cream of the crop for exchange listings
rumors of an incoming Robinhood listing have fueled some of the biggest memecoin/altcoin rallies in crypto history
Robinhood's role in the $DOGE + $SHIB mania of 2021 only cemented that status
now you have a Robinhood chain where people believe tokens launched there have a higher probability of eventually being listed on Robinhood
that's an extremely powerful flywheel
more devs launch on the chain
more users buy on the chain
more liquidity flows in
and i think people counting out Robinhood chain are going to find out just how powerful this narrative can be in a proper bull run
WHY THE RECENT WEAKNESS?
1. RH eco coins pumped giga hard
a lot of RH eco coins simply needed a cooldown
$PONS went from ~$30m to $960m+ in weeks before the bull run has even kicked off
a ~50% correction after that kind of move is completely normal and can set the stage for another explosive leg
same applies across the eco
2. Solana stepped up
the Robinhood retail distribution narrative was a major catalyst
but apathy and a lack of action from Solana for a while leading to the emergence of Robinhood chain also helped fuel the initial RH chain explosion
that has changed
Solana has stepped up and made it clear they remain a force to contend with this cycle
with liquidity still relatively constrained, that naturally diverted some flows away from Robinhood chain
but i don't think liquidity will stay constrained forever
soon there should be enough liquidity to accommodate serious activity on BOTH Robinhood chain and Solana
and of course BNB chain (i mean this goes without saying)
3. lack of follow through from Robinhood
this is probably the easiest problem to fix
if the biggest catalyst behind the chain was the Robinhood distribution channel, people will eventually lose interest if barely anything gets listed
Robinhood listing $CASHCAT so early was bullish and helped spark the second wave of activity on the chain
but they've listed almost nothing else from the ecosystem three months into launch
that's a bad signal
$PONS went from ~$30m to almost $1b, became a major driver of activity and at one point contributed ~50% of chain activity
it's perhaps the most successful new launche of the past year in all of crypto
yet it still hasn't been listed by Robinhood
same with $AI
it's the flagship token of Long, the second biggest launchpad on RH chain
it's also a top-tier memecoin that brought significant attention to the chain during its run to $350m+
i don't own $AI, but i'm surprised it isn't on Robinhood
from the outside, it's difficult to understand why $PONS and $AI haven't been listed yet
and i'm not claiming to know Robinhood's internal listing criteria or regulatory considerations
but the longer the biggest successes on the chain go without Robinhood distribution, the weaker the core ecosystem flywheel becomes
if devs and users stop believing that building on Robinhood chain gives them a meaningful distribution advantage, some of the chain's biggest differentiators disappear
and that's what contributed to momentum stalling alongside the other factors above
the good news?
this is the easiest problem to fix
and i'd actually love to see Robinhood throw something much lower cap and more degen into the mix
could be something like robinhood:0xe8ffd7e24187f72afb08d75b1bb13088a989a791 (the leading RH-native liquidity layer) or $BOW (the leading RH-native lending market) — could also be some other low cap, but i mentioned both since they have a strong narrative and justification, which likely attract even more builders/users to the chain
that would create speculation that ANYTHING could get listed
and that kind of uncertainty is exactly what fuels degeneracy
it is very clear that @vladtenev has been strategic and calculated in how he's leading the chain
he also has his ears on the ground and understands the trenches
so i'm not particularly concerned about #3 over a long enough timeframe
ABOUT THE HOOD SUMMIT
i've seen people say the HOOD Summit was bearish for Robinhood chain because the RH eco didn't massively pump during or after the event
i think that's missing the bigger picture
a lot of people expected the Summit to be a catalyst for the next leg up
that catalyst didn't come
but what happened next is more interesting
the RH eco held up
there was no major 'sell the news' dump
after an event with that much anticipation, that's significant
the important signal to me is that the eco absorbed the event without breaking down
that makes me think the recent weakness may have largely run its course
i think the next leg up across Robinhood chain comes soon
i don't know exactly when or what the catalyst will be
maybe some Vlad Tenev wizardry + Robinhood listings
maybe something completely unexpected
TO CONCLUDE...
a lot of people love Robinhood
and their team has made a lot of the right moves so far
they have a massive advantage through the Robinhood retail platform
and they can weaponize that distribution advantage to drive sustained activity on their chain
the Robinhood narrative only gets more powerful as the market and altcoins heat up
i think the biggest question now is simply how aggressively Robinhood chooses to capitalize on the ecosystem it has created
count out Robinhood chain at your own peril!
seeing how hard CT has fudded Robinhood chain over the past week or two
i genuinely wouldn't be surprised if most people on this app are once again completely sidelined when the next wave hits
Robinhood brought life back to the trenches when everyone thought the cycle was dead
and now it is increasingly looking like Robinhood chain has everything it needs to be THE chain of this cycle:
→ by far one of the biggest retail distribution networks in crypto
→ strong fundamentals
→ massive narrative
→ increasingly strong positioning
→ Robinhood's 30m+ funded retail customer base
and Vlad Tenev + Robinhood are absolute masters at turning major events into catalysts
they may have their BIGGEST catalyst since the chain launched coming in just a few days
and CT is fudding it harder than ever
i couldn't ask for a better setup
because this is exactly how people get caught sleeping on the next leg
they fade it
they watch it rip
then suddenly everyone discovers how bullish Robinhood chain is
and starts aping our bags
except by then...
they'll be buying our bags MUCH higher
the trenches are about to get very interesting
潮汐猎人🥜💹🧲 retweeted
40 万 U 到 9 万 U，我真正做错了什么
前段时间，这个 pump.fun/join/yueya 账户最高有 40 多万 U，现在页面上只剩 9 万多 U。中间有资金转移，所以我不想拿“亏了 31 万”这种数字制造情绪。但真实的交易亏损已经足够让我认真复盘。
认真思考，我的问题其实很清楚也很简单
我一直有赚钱能力，但没有同等级别的风险管理能力。
很多盈利单，我赚几千、上万就会卖；亏损单却能从 -20% 拿到 -50%，最后甚至 -80%、归零。结果就是胜率看起来不差，账户却被少数几笔大亏反复打穿。
交易里有个很简单的数学：
如果你平均一笔赚 5000U，一次亏 30000U，就需要连续六笔正常盈利才能把这一笔错误填回来。
所以真正该控制的，从来不只是胜率。
更重要的是：一笔错误最多有资格拿走多少钱。
以前我会先想：“这个币我买 1 万还是 2 万？”
现在我觉得顺序应该完全反过来：
先问自己，如果我判断错了，我最多愿意亏多少钱？
假设最多亏 3000U，逻辑失效的位置距离买入价 30%，那仓位上限就是 1 万 U。
对于没有明确止损位的 Meme，我以后会直接按照“可能归零”计算风险。
但这轮真正让我警惕的，其实还有一个更深的问题。
当时账户里真的有 40 万 U。
正常来说，这已经是一个很好的结果。可那段时间我看到身边越来越多朋友突破 1M，我开始非常想把账户也做到 1M。
更麻烦的是，我以前确实很多次做到过。
所以我脑子里会产生一种很危险的感觉：
40 万只是中间状态，我应该很快回到 1M。
从这一刻开始，我的交易其实已经变质了。
我看到一个机会时，想的不再只是：
这笔交易的赔率够不够好？
脑子里还多了一个声音：
这笔能不能让我更快到 1M？
一旦这个目标进入交易决策，很多原本不该做的事情都会突然变得合理。
仓位可以再大一点。
已经涨很多了，也会觉得还能追。
跌下来以后不愿意认错，因为卖掉意味着离 1M 更远。
赚了一笔也不愿意真正把钱拿走，因为总觉得本金越大，到 1M 越快。
现在回头看，这是我这轮最贵的一课：
我把财富目标带进了单笔交易。
市场根本不知道我要做到 1M。
一个机会应该下多少仓，只和它的赔率、确定性、失效点、流动性和我愿意承担的损失有关。
和我现在账户有 40 万，距离 100 万还差多少，没有任何关系。
比较也会严重扭曲风险感知。
当身边的人都在赚钱，你很容易觉得自己“落后了”。可交易没有统一的进度条。
别人今天从 50 万做到 100 万，不代表我今天就应该承担两倍风险追上去。
别人的 PnL 一旦开始影响自己的 position sizing，基本已经失去独立判断了。
我还有一个问题，是会借用别人的 conviction。
朋友在买、KOL 在喊、群里都在讨论、聪明钱进场，这些都可以成为信息。
可如果一个币跌了 40%，我突然回答不了：
为什么买？
为什么现在还拿？
什么情况说明原来的逻辑已经错了？
那说明我从一开始就没有真正拥有这笔交易。
上涨的时候，所有故事听起来都很合理。
只有下跌的时候，你才知道哪些判断真的是自己的。
还有一点我以前忽略了：账户创新高以后，风险预算不能跟着净值无限膨胀。
40 万全部放在账户里，我潜意识里就会把它当成 40 万可用筹码。
可其中相当一部分其实已经是过去很多正确决策积累出来的成果。
如果这些利润始终留在同一个高风险池里，下一次错误依然有机会把过去几个月全部带走。
以后我会给账户设置 High-Water Mark。
净值每上一个阶段，就强制抽走一部分利润。
这部分钱退出以后，不因为看到一个“特别好的机会”又打回来。
因为账户里显示赚到了，和真正把钱留下来，是两回事。
回撤阶段也一样。
以前亏钱以后，我很容易开始想：
下一笔怎么赚回来？
这其实非常危险。
一旦目标变成“回本”，交易会慢慢从寻找正期望值，变成寻找足够大的结果。
仓位会放大，频率会上升，耐心会消失。
所以以后回撤越大，我反而应该越慢。
我现在给自己留下四条规则：
1:净值目标永远不能参与单笔交易决策。
2:仓位由最大可承受损失倒推，不由“我有多少钱”决定。
3:账户创新高必须抽走利润，回撤扩大必须降低风险。
4:一笔交易如果需要下一笔“大赚”才能救回来，那上一笔的仓位就已经错了。
我现现在也能更深刻地体会到优秀交易员真正厉害的地方，可能并不是比别人多抓几个 10 倍币。
是他有能力让一次错误永远杀不死自己。
过去我总在研究下一个机会在哪里。
这次以后，我会花更多时间研究：
什么情况下应该不下注，什么情况下应该减仓，以及赚到的钱怎样真正留下来。
40 万我以前做到过。
1M 我以前也做到过。
现在我更在意的是，下一次再到那个数字的时候，我还能留下多少。
