MUST READ of the week—perhaps year: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…. Our friend @tomkeene likely agrees.  If you are too busy to learn but apparently not too busy to peruse social media, then TLDR this section: “Structural reforms can limit avoidance and expand revenue potential.” This piece is among the first shots across the bow from a Wall-Street-adjacent think tank that is highly supportive of our thesis that a historic secular bear market is coming.  A key reason why we have strong conviction that a jump condition in redistributive policies and trust busting is coming much sooner than the median investor realizes is our data-driven, robustly researched application of the @RayDalio, @HoweGeneration, and @Peter_Turchin frameworks. Mind you, this is the same median investor who is historically allocated to stocks relative to other asset classes and historically allocated to Tech stocks relative to other factors. When it’s time to sell, there will be no one to offload the risk to.  Our current base case on when is 2H27-1H28. We believe the 2028 election will be different this time. The result will likely be manifestly pro-human and pro-labor—regardless of which party wins because that is what it will likely take to win henceforth. Bold prediction: Many current members of DSA and MAGA will merge into one unified voting bloc by 2032—especially if POTUS is not around by then (he's ~80 years old). Once people in the W-2 class realize they’ve been getting screwed by politicians on BOTH sides of the aisle for decades, the key political fight won’t be Republican vs. Democrat anymore. It’ll go back to where it all started: capital vs. labor.  Please prepare your portfolio for the Fourth Turning climax before it ruins your hopes and dreams of an on-time and comfortable retirement.  With love, —Skipper