CryptoBot Pro daily update: 4,350 completed cycles, +506.71 USDC net realized (real fees deducted). Yesterday: +3.30 USDC. Open cycles: estimated net potential +39.88 USDC.

Bitcoin's cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile fell to 25.7%, per analyst Darkfost, after at least three rejections near $87,000. It's a zone Bitcoin has sat in about 25% of the time, above the band seen at major lows. Hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975) makes past bottoms look obvious.

Bitcoin traded between $81,108 and $81,733 on Oct. 17, a range under 0.8%. Traders treat $80,000 as a psychological line. Anchoring (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) found estimates drift toward an initial number, even an arbitrary one. A grid's levels ignore round numbers.

CryptoBot Pro daily update: 4,301 completed cycles, +499.97 USDC net realized (real fees deducted). Open cycles: estimated net potential +43.46 USDC.

US spot bitcoin ETFs had $228.6M in net outflows in the week to Oct. 16, about $615M for October. That's under 1% of $104.29B in assets. Oct. 7 alone took $487.1M. By availability (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973), a single day that size is what people recall and judge by.

Jameson Lopp's archive of physical attacks on crypto holders now lists about 702 cases since 2014. AI-assisted searches by Pizza Bitcoiner added about 351 missed reports. Of 670 cases since 2020, 31 ended in deaths. Better records explain the jump.

Bitcoin held near $82,000 after bouncing at $80,000. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he doesn't prejudge meetings, and FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to 15% from 27%. A spot grid fills orders on both sides when price swings back and forth inside a range like this week's.

MSCI's rule barring "non-operating companies" from its indexes takes effect at the close of Nov. 30. It aims at the model Strategy pioneered. If Strategy is removed, tracking funds must sell, and its premium over its bitcoin could shrink. The final list comes out Nov. 11.

Strive went from 28,000 BTC at the end of September to 35,595, now the fourth-largest public holder. Warrant exercises added shares, which weighed on BTC per share. TD Cowen expects its $630M preferred offering, closing Oct. 20, to fund more buying without new common stock.

On Oct. 13, CME bitcoin futures showed asset managers at 9 out of 100 on three years of positioning, near their least long. Leveraged funds sat at 97, near their least short. Both groups had pulled back at the same time, one way herding can show up in positioning.

Mining difficulty rose 5.92% to 140.58 trillion on Oct. 16, its highest since March 5. Hashrate is back above 1,000 EH/s. Hashprice, the daily revenue per PH/s, slipped to $36.75 from above $41 on Oct. 2. Miners now compete harder for less per machine.

Ledger devices sold through Southeast Asian reseller CryptoBilis carried an implant that read the 24-word recovery phrase at setup and sent it out over LTE. Ledger asked resellers in six countries and Hong Kong to stop selling. One victim was a scammer who lost over 60 BTC.

CryptoBot Pro daily update: 4,297 completed cycles, +499.42 USDC net realized (real fees deducted). Yesterday: +2.55 USDC. Open cycles: estimated net potential +41.42 USDC.

The new Quantum Alliance counts 6.04M to 6.4M BTC, about 30% of supply, with public keys already exposed. No computer can break them yet. Preparing could take years, and people underestimate how long their projects take, the planning fallacy (Buehler, Griffin & Ross, 1994).

A widely shared post said BlackRock sold $71.78M of bitcoin. The sales came from IBIT shareholders redeeming. BlackRock has no documented selling of its own. The same fact framed two ways draws two reactions, the framing effect (Tversky & Kahneman, 1981).

Lightning Labs' Olaoluwa Osuntokun published Layertree, a 103-page proposal letting thousands of users share one bitcoin output. The operator can refuse new members but can't block a valid withdrawal. It needs a covenant, which bitcoin's rules don't allow yet.

Capital B lost €69.5M in H1 2026, €67.5M of it a non-cash bitcoin impairment. It holds 3,538 BTC at an average cost of €87,805. In prospect theory, gains and losses count from a reference point, often the price paid (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).

Brooklyn prosecutors and the FBI took down 241 scam domains and over 100 servers. The scam charged bogus fees to withdraw, then came back posing as a recovery service. Fees that promise to rescue money already lost exploit the sunk cost fallacy (Arkes & Blumer, 1985).

South Korea's Financial Intelligence Unit will block domestic access to the websites of 27 unregistered crypto exchanges and service providers, including KuCoin, MEXC, Phemex and Bitrue. Their apps were already blocked on Apple and Google stores.

From July 1, 2027, Russians won't be allowed to trade crypto peer to peer, the Bank of Russia confirmed. Trades must go through licensed brokers or registered exchanges, and individuals can't move coins from a custodial account to a wallet where they hold the keys.