Joined May 2026
This isn't true. Crude stocks have not been drawing as quick as you show. Energy Aspects is showing builds this quarter. Cushing is still at 29MM. Also, your dotted line to show the projected draw is a ridiculous case for why there is a shortage. The US is still well supplied
Global onshore inventories have been falling by >40MM barrels per week for the past 2 weeks as the in-transit safety buffer has been exhausted. Ignoring 5 "imminent peace deal to open up the Strait" leaks for 19 days, this appears to be the ~ likely path forward. Will it matter?
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It's funny how these same companies were drilling like crazy last decade whenever WTI was hedged above $40, but now that it's way higher margins, they are hitting the brakes on growth. Sometimes I feel these executives are effective at destroying shareholder value.
Frackers Are Finally Ready to Drill. Trump Won’t See a Return of the Go-Go Days. Shale companies are cautiously dialing up output and hinting at a prolonged period of high oil prices #oott wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
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The technicals look quite bad for crude all of a sudden.
SAUDI STATE TV SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING BREAKTHROUGH EXPECTED WITHIN HOURS According to reports, agreements are being discussed to ease the blockade and allow stranded ships to resume transit through the critical oil shipping route. The strait is vital for Gulf energy exports, including from Saudi Arabia, which was also targeted during the recent Iran conflic
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This is an important signal for the next couple weeks. It’s likely that crude traders overreacted to the bullish event and supply/demand balances aren’t as bad as many assumed it would be. Storage draws are not as bad as anticipated (yet). This buys time until we hit tank bottoms
The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil.
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CrudeStructure retweeted
SEB: Oil futures markets are too complacent about the impact of the supply shock. Another eight-plus weeks of further delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz would push Brent Crude prices to $150-$200 per barrel, “The market is now living on borrowed time(!),”
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BP considering shutting down rigs in North Sea after Europe begins process to re-implement windfall tax on oil companies
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CrudeStructure retweeted
US crude inventories fell by 7.537mb last week (commercial: -2.313mb, SPR: -5.224mb) EIA #oott
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$SU Q1 earnings are a mildly better than what the street was expecting. 875/d prod. vs 868 expected. 1.93 OEPS vs 1.93 exp. 3.39 AFFO vs 3.29 exp. Capex 1.08B vs 1.22B exp. Overall this is decent for a quarter with unplanned prod. outages. (1/n)
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the buybacks continue to increase steadily in value 1.5B this quarter, 40M less than prior quarter, and 85M over Q1 25. The dividend yield is 2.5% and buyback yield is 2.9%. These are solid given the incredible run in the share price over the past few months (2/n)
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$SU needs to keep proving they can manufacture high value oil in both good times and bad. This again implies the turnaround in performance is the real deal. It's not a knock it out of the park quarter, but it proves consistency. (3/n) #oott #COM
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CrudeStructure retweeted
Iran's Oil Minister Paknezhad: Damaged facilities will be rebuilt in the shortest possible time - IRNA
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Apparently the strait still isn’t safe for passage
THREE INDIAN CITIZENS MODERATELY INJURED IN IRANIAN DRONE ATTACK ON FUJAIRAH'S OIL INDUSTRY COMPLEX - FUJAIRAH'S MEDIA OFFICE
CrudeStructure retweeted
IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY SAYS TWO MISSILES HIT U.S. WARSHIP NEAR JASK ISLAND AFTER IT IGNORED IRAN WARNINGS
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CrudeStructure retweeted
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL: IRAN FIRED A WARNING SHOT AGAINST U.S. WARSHIP TO PREVENT ITS ENTRY INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ, UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WAS ANY DAMAGE
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CrudeStructure retweeted
UAE STRONGLY CONDEMNED IRAN'S ATTACK ON ADNOC TANKER IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
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They could always just increase fares… add fuel surcharges… pass it on to the consumer.
ULSD in PADD2 has skyrocketed in the last week. Whiting, Joliet, Pine Bend are making a killing, as cracking and coking margins went up $40/barrel or more. #oott $BP $VLO $MPC
Diesel pain heat map- a color coded map of where diesel prices have surged compared to a week ago- this time its not the coasts that are the hotspot but inland areas including Great Lakes states.
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CrudeStructure retweeted
BREAKING: #Alberta has set a new all-time record for average diesel price at 207.1c/L beating out 2022's record of 201.6c/L
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Now that the US blockade of the strait has been successful, the natural progression is US naval escorts of vessels for allied countries. Iran’s key revenue source is now cutoff and they will be forced to shut in production quite soon. #oott 1/n
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It’s possible that Iran will attack these vessels transiting the strait, and insurance rates will reflect this risk, but there will come a time where the rewards justify the added costs of transit. Eventually diesel and gasoline prices will sufficiently incent transit #oott 2/2
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