How do today's Argentina corn and soybean precipitation forecasts compare with historical forecasts issued around the same time of year? Our Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API provides access to 8+ years of archived weather forecasts, allowing users to compare current model forecasts against historical forecasts and conduct backtesting. For Argentina's week-two precipitation forecast (Oct 26-Nov 1), AIFS-ENS ranks among the driest 11% of comparable historical forecasts for corn and the driest 6% for soybeans. The graphics compare today's 00Z ECMWF, GEFS, GFS, and AIFS-ENS forecasts against historical 00Z forecasts initialized within ±15 days of October 19 from 2017-2026. #OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #Argentina #CornBelt #GrainMarkets

ECMWF, AIFS, and GEFS forecast substantially below-normal precipitation across Argentina's corn and soybean production regions in week two (Oct 26–Nov 1). Argentina's corn production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14: • ECMWF: 72% of normal • AIFS: 55% of normal • GEFS: 54% of normal Argentina's soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14: • ECMWF: 58% of normal • AIFS: 49% of normal • GEFS: 46% of normal Get a risk-free trial of CropProphet using the link in the comments below! 👇 #OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #Argentina #GrainMarkets

US corn and soybean harvest progress could accelerate over the next seven days, with all three forecast models showing substantially below-normal precipitation before a wetter pattern develops in week two. US corn/soybeans production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 1-7 (Oct 19-25): • ECMWF: 46% / 33% of normal • AIFS: 28% / 19% of normal • GEFS: 47% / 35% of normal The forecast shifts toward above-normal precipitation in week two (Oct 26-Nov 1), with the AIFS model showing a substantially wetter outlook than the ECMWF and GEFS. US corn/soybeans production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14: • ECMWF: 118% / 103% of normal • AIFS: 194% / 173% of normal • GEFS: 122% / 109% of normal #OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #CornBelt #GrainMarkets

How has soybean planting shifted across Brazil over the past 50 years, and why does it matter for weather forecasts? In the 1970s, soybean cultivation was concentrated primarily in southern Brazil. Since then, soybean planting has expanded substantially into central Brazil, particularly Mato Grosso and Goiás, as well as other northern producing regions. The attached maps and GIF illustrate how soybean cultivation has expanded and shifted geographically across Brazil over time, showing changes in the share of land used for soybeans. With the ECMWF, GEFS, and AIFS forecasting below-normal precipitation in Mato Grosso over the next two weeks, rainfall across this region is important to monitor as Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting season progresses. This geographic shift in soybean cultivation also highlights the value of CropProphet's production-weighted weather indices, such as Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation. These indices account for where soybean production is concentrated when aggregating weather conditions and forecasts, rather than weighting all geographic areas equally. #OOTT #AgWx #Soybeans #Brazil #GrainMarkets #Soja

Brazil soybean weather: All three major forecast models indicate below-normal rainfall in Mato Grosso over the next two weeks. Today's 00z ECMWF forecast has shifted drier for October 16–22, bringing it closer to the GEFS and AIFS forecasts. Mato Grosso precipitation forecasts (% of normal): Week 1 (October 16–22) • ECMWF: 62% • GEFS: 35% • AIFS: 40% Week 2 (October 23–29) • ECMWF: 73% • GEFS: 46% • AIFS: 67% The ECMWF reduced its Week 1 Mato Grosso precipitation forecast by 13% of normal compared with yesterday's 00z run. All three models now consistently forecast below-normal rainfall across Mato Grosso during both weeks, although the GEFS remains the driest. With Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting underway, rainfall amounts and distribution across Mato Grosso will be important to monitor for soil moisture, planting progress, and crop establishment. #OOTT #AgWx #Soybeans #Brazil #GrainMarkets #Soja

"The trade is focused on is not the forecast for El Niño two months out. It's what's going on right now." @StandardGrain So, let's take a look at the precipitation forecast for Brazil soybean producing regions over the next 2 weeks. Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 1 (days 1-7): • ECMWF: 107% of normal • GEFS: 80% of normal • AIFS: 77% of normal Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 2 (days 8-14): • ECMWF: 123% of normal • GEFS: 105% of normal • AIFS: 105% of normal #OOTT #AgWx #Brazil #Soybeans #Soja #GrainMarkets

As @StandardGrain mentions, a SUPER El Niño is coming. So should grain traders care? Using objective data from the CropProphet SFTP, we analyzed the impact of ENSO on Brazil soybeans. National yield: no consistent El Niño relationship • Across 51 seasons (1974-2024), Brazil's national soybean yield shows no consistent relationship with Jan-Feb Niño 3.4. • The last three super El Niño seasons (DJF Niño 3.4 at or above +2.0°C) finished mixed versus trend: +5.0% in 1982/83, +1.8% in 1997/98 and -4.2% in 2015/16. Regional yield: north and south move in opposite directions • In El Niño years, yields have run below trend in the North/Northeast and Center-West and above trend in Rio Grande do Sul. • Across 173 microregions (1990-2024), 92% of North/Northeast and 98% of Center-West microregions show a negative relationship, while 72% of Rio Grande do Sul microregions show a positive one. • In El Niño seasons, the typical microregion finished 6.7% above trend in Rio Grande do Sul and 2.0% below trend in the North/Northeast. • The strongest negative relationships are in Maranhão, Tocantins and Piauí. • Nationally, the two partly offset. As of now, traders are focused more on the current conditions. In Brazil soybean production regions, rainfall over the last 30 days has run 112.4% of normal. The Oct 12 00z 15-day forecasts call for 117.4% of normal on the ECMWF ensemble, 97.3% on the GEFS and 89.9% on the AIFS. #OOTT #AgWx #Brazil #Soybeans #GrainMarkets