A few facts on the ground: -Iran is shooting at ships transiting the strait and is hitting quite a few (how many, it is hard to say, with the UKMTO admitting many attacks are going unreported and cannot be verified). -a handful of these ships are stopped or disabled by Iranian fire; two have sunk; the rest continue their transits. -the US-supported escort system has had considerable success increasing traffic through the strait; flows from the region as a whole are close to prewar levels, but oscillate on a week-to-week basis. -the recovering flows have not brought down front month or prompt prices, owing to 1) continued high demand, 2) very high shipping costs related to the attacks, 3) lack of confidence in reliability of supply, incentivizing buyers to spend a premium on prompt barrels. -while there is mounting evidence to suggest escalation is likely, diplomacy continues, with each side communicating to the other via mediators. -both the US (watching flows) and Iran (watching prices) have a reason to hold to their position and resist offering concessions. As a result, a deal appears very unlikely (though that could change quickly, if either side shifts their position).