Last night at CHIJMES ✨ Hosted a private dinner with @GammaPrime during #TOKEN2049 Week. Intimate conversations, real alignment, and the kind of energy that only happens when the right people are in the room. Grateful for everyone who joined us. More to come this week. #CreditScend #Singapore

Korean Blockchain Week 2026 roundup It was great meeting old faces. VIP dinners and parties with KOLs. Seoul still does the social layer better than almost anywhere in crypto. The rooms were fuller this year, and the suits were no longer just visiting. KBW2026 with Upbit ran 29 Sep–1 Oct at Walkerhill. FactBlock hosted. About 12,500 people, ~290 speakers, 120 sessions, plus the invite-only Upbit Institutional Summit on the 29th. Tickets sold out before doors opened. The shift from prior years was obvious. Less “what’s the next narrative,” more “who actually clears, custodies, and settles.” Six tracks: policy, the next cycle, on-chain capital markets, 24/7 venues, the settlement layer, and AI × blockchain. What actually mattered: 1. Agents need rails, not another L1 pitch The line that kept coming back: an agent cannot open a bank account, pass a card check, or sign ToS. Wallets and tasks are not a payment system. Arthur Hayes put FLOP on the main stage. A currency for agents, mined by doing inference. GPU providers earn the token. Agents spend it on compute and on other agents. Flop Labs: testnet late October, genesis Q1 2027. Still a concept with a date on it, not a live market. 0G’s Michael Heinrich argued transaction chains are the wrong base layer for this. His stack: Agentic ID, verifiable compute in TEEs, high-throughput decentralized storage. x402 (the HTTP 402 payment standard, now under a Linux Foundation setup) was the practical answer in the room. Coverage at the event cited 200M+ x402 transactions by mid-2026. 2. Korea is building its own money stack Bank of Korea’s Sungguan Yun walked through Project Hangang. Wholesale CBDC as the settlement asset for bank-issued deposit tokens. Their framing: a middle ground between a CBDC and a stablecoin, so banks keep credit creation and payments get programmability. Phase 1 (Apr–Jun 2025) was a proof of concept, ~81k users. Phase 2 started in September: 9 banks, up to 500k users, P2P, biometrics, and real government subsidy payouts through deposit tokens. Project Agora, the cross-border piece, was described as a rulebook in 2027 and live in 2028. A tokenized Korean government-bond pilot was flagged for 2027. 3. Won stablecoin is an access product, not a card killer Lawmaker Min Byung-deok pushed three things: institutionalize a won stablecoin, pass a Digital Asset Basic Act, and open the market to institutions. Priority was 1:1 redemption and reserve verification, not the fight over how much banks must own. BDACS, with Circle, Kyobo, and SBI, demoed a testnet swap of KRW1 against USDC via Circle’s StableFX. Their point was sharp: Korea’s card rails already work. The gap is agent micropayments, DvP and collateral for tokenized securities, and foreign capital reaching Korean assets. NHN KCP showed a full KRW-stablecoin commerce flow, payment through merchant settlement. 4. Tokenized securities now have a date Capital Markets Act and Electronic Securities Act amendments take effect 4 February 2027. FSC roadmap: tokenized MMFs and bonds, then all public securities, then on-chain payments tied to stablecoins. Samsung SDS is building the KSD platform against that date. A BCG figure floated in the rooms: ~367 trillion won in Korean tokenized securities by 2030. Treat that as a scenario, not a forecast. 5. Upbit wants to export infrastructure, not just volume Dunamu CEO Oh Kyung-seok’s keynote was “Beyond Trading.” Three conditions for Korea as a hub: access for global capital, connectivity to the won, and modules that can be exported. Customer base from retail to institutions. Geography from Korea to global. Product from trading into custody, transfer, and verification. The backbone is GIWA, their OP Stack Ethereum L2, aimed at ~1-second blocks for payments. Still pre-mainnet. A fake GIWA chain had already drained users the week before. If it is not the official endpoint, it is not GIWA. The GASOK showcase covered DeFi/RWA, consumer and social, ZK auth, AI × Web3, and mass adoption. 6. Settlement and 24/7 markets Stable pitched a USDT-native chain for real-world settlement. Tria pitched self-custody as a banking stack institutions and agents can build on, not a retail ideology. BitGo, newly accepted as a Korean VASP with Hana and SK Telecom behind it, was the institutional custody sponsor. Jeff Yan made the Hyperliquid case: fully on-chain perps are what pulled desks toward always-on markets. Joseph Lubin, weeks after the Consensys split, positioned MetaMask as a financial OS for stablecoins and tokenized stocks. US policy was in the same rooms. Patrick Witt from the White House digital-asset council. Brian Quintenz on market structure after the CLARITY Act. Credit Scend take The parties were good. The signal was better. Seoul is no longer a retail-flow stop on the Asia tour. It is where a won money stack, a February 2027 tokenized-securities start date, and agent payment rails got argued in the same week. Most of it is still a pilot, a testnet, or a statute that has not taken effect. That is the trade. The teams that ship custody, settlement, and compliance against those dates will matter more than the ones that only showed up for the dinners. If you were in Seoul and building in stablecoins, RWA, or agent payments, come say hi.

The crypto market is currently undergoing its most defining structural evolution since the creation of Bitcoin . Below is an in-depth analysis of how this transformation parallels historic economic cycles, why the traditional crypto venture capital playbook collapsed, and what the emerging financial landscape actually looks like. medium.com/@creditscend.com/…

Hyperliquid is quietly showing where leveraged capital is rotating right now. Total platform OI sits around $7.1–7.3B (with some reports hitting $10B+ recently). Core crypto perps still dominate absolute size, but the structural growth has come from HIP-3— permissionless perps on equities, indices & commodities. HIP-3 key stats: Launched Oct 2025 OI grew from ~$790M (Jan 2026) to peaks of $3.2B+ by June 2026 (one report showed +305% in that period) Currently contributing ~$2.8–3.1B OI (often 25–40% of total platform) Trade.xyz alone owns ~90%+ of HIP-3 What’s actually getting the capital? Many top HIP-3 markets by OI/volume are AI/tech equities & macro: S&P 500 & Nasdaq-style proxies (XYZ100) NVDA (Nvidia perp OI has been significantly higher than on Binance) Memory/AI chip names (MU, SK Hynix) Oil, gold, silver Pre-IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, etc.) As of mid-2026 reports, ~23 of the top 30 assets by OI on the whole platform were equities/commodities, not pure crypto pairs. This lines up perfectly with traditional markets in H1 2026: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: +102% Magnificent 7: roughly flat to -2% Bitcoin: -33% Hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure. Leveraged/speculative capital is following — and Hyperliquid’s 24/7 on-chain perps make it easy to get synthetic exposure outside traditional market hours. Bottom line: Hyperliquid started as a crypto perp DEX. It’s evolving into a hybrid venue where new risk capital is heavily allocating to AI stocks & real-world macro via HIP-3, even while core crypto majors (BTC, ETH, HYPE, SOL) remain the largest individual markets. The marginal dollar chasing growth is tilting toward AI infrastructure — on-chain and off. Sources: Hyperliquid dashboards, Dune Analytics (21Shares & others), Grayscale notes, market reports (June–July 2026 data). What do you think — rotation or just temporary flow? 👀

Credit Scend H1 2026 Roundup: Building Deep, Expanding West, and Staying the Course As we reach the midpoint of 2026, the broader Web3 market has undeniably toned down its frantic pace. But while the speculative noise has cooled, our engines haven’t. At Credit Scend, the past six months have been defined by a deliberate shift in strategy: moving away from the chaotic race for eyeballs and doubling down on what truly matters—deepening relationships, supporting our portfolio companies, and expanding our global footprint. Here is a look back at where we’ve been in H1 2026, how our approach is evolving, and where we are heading next. 🌍 Our Global Footprint: H1 2026 We’ve kept our boots on the ground across major crypto hubs worldwide, bridging insights between the East and the West: Consensus Hong Kong (Feb 2026): Kicking off the year by tapping into the revitalized East Asian institutional pipeline. ETH Seoul (April 2026): Returning to our core roots to sync with builders pushing the boundaries of Ethereum infrastructure and consumer apps. Consensus Miami (May 2026): Touching down in the US to gauge the Western regulatory landscape and connect with stateside capital. Crypto Valley Conference (May 2026): Navigating the pristine ecosystem of Zug, Switzerland, to solidify our ties with institutional digital asset players in Europe. ♟️ The Strategic Pivot: Quality Over Noise If 2024 and 2025 were about massive, flashy side events, H1 2026 has been about high-signal, intimate execution. Recognizing the shift in market maturity, we intentionally dialed back on hosting mega-side events. Instead, our focus pivoted toward Private Dinners and Targeted Engagement. By curating exclusive rooms of high-conviction VCs, strategic founders, and key ecosystem players, we’ve been able to drive tangible, bespoke value directly to our portfolio companies. In a quieter market, a closed-door conversation with the right partner beats a 500-person party every single time. 🗺️ Westward Expansion & Navigating Geopolitical Waves Historically anchored with a strong APAC presence, we have taken this slower market period as a prime opportunity to aggressively expand our reach into the Western world. Our presence in Miami and Zug marks the acceleration of this thesis, building cross-border corridors that give our portfolio companies a truly global launchpad. Of course, global expansion requires navigating global realities. Due to unfolding geopolitical complexities, we made the strategic decision to skip Dubai this spring. While it’s always tough to miss a major industry node, protecting our team's focus and resources remains our top priority. 🔮 Looking Ahead: All Roads Lead to Singapore The market might be catching its breath, but the underlying builder conviction hasn’t wavered. We are heads-down, executing, and sharpening our focus for the latter half of the year. While we bypassed the desert this time around, the global crypto community always finds its center of gravity. We fully expect the entire ecosystem to converge on our home turf for Token2049 Singapore later this year. See you all in Singapore!

Credit Scend 100x Playbook: What Actually Matters in Crypto & Markets today. DeFi’s Mismatch: Complex protocols attract retail users who need abstraction layers to prevent systemic contagion. VC Reality: Most crypto VCs underperform a simple BTC/ETH buy-and-hold strategy, relying instead on packaged narratives. Analyzing Nations: The least-biased way to understand a country is through its top enterprises, not culture or politics. TradFi/DeFi Symbiosis: They aren't competitors; they depend on each other for efficient global distribution. PMF over Hype: Markets ignore ideological narratives; only real product-market fit (PMF) is rewarded. Stablecoin Dominance: Crypto's greatest success, effectively extending USD hegemony globally. AI's Limit: AI compresses information but cannot compress trust, making authentic human relationships more valuable than ever. Founder Archetype: Elite founders often seem "weird" early on; success lies in betting on substance over optics.

The Signal is Returning: Our ETHDenver 2026 Takeaways 🧵 Our team just flew in from Hong Kong to Denver, and the shift in energy is jarring. While Asia is still a playground for "hunters and prowlers" searching for alpha, Denver has fallen into a state of pure silence. Here is what Credit Scend is seeing on the ground: 1. The East vs. West Great Divide 🌏🏔️ In Hong Kong, the energy is aggressive; the Web3 Festival and Consensus HK were packed with institutional "prowlers" and high-conviction liquidity. Denver, by contrast, feels like a "silent build" phase. The noise has been replaced by a heavy, snowy quiet. 2. The Death of the "Side Event" Era 📉 Industry data suggests confirmed side events for ETHDenver are down nearly 80% from their peak. We felt this on the ground: no airport takeovers, no sponsor-funded mega-clubs, and no flashy scams. It’s easier to get a taxi than a party invite, and honestly, that’s a relief. 3. VCs are in "Hibernation" 🐻 The common refrain from the VCs we spoke with? "We aren't deploying right now." There’s a palpable sense of gloominess, and many are still cynical about structural shifts or mourning their failure to sell at the last peak. 4. High Signal: Stablecoins & RWA ⛓️ The ratio of meaningful conversation to noise is at an all-time high. People are ignoring NFT games and "pump" models to focus on the last frontier: - Tokenization of Commodities - Stablecoin Infrastructure - Institutional TradFi Transitions - Real Product-Market Fit (PMF) The Verdict: Denver is cold, windy, and quiet. But for a team like Credit Scend, the silence is where the real work happens. The tourists are gone. Only the builders remain. Now the question is who can last?

WARSH REPRICING THE GAP BETWEEN FEAR AND REALITY The nomination of Kevin Warsh on January 30 has triggered a classic buy the rumor sell the news event with a twist. While the market has aggressively priced in the fear of a hawkish Fed chair, it has completely ignored the incoming dovish catalyst of mid-year rate cuts. THE TIMELINE OF THE FRONT RUN The market didn't wait for the official Truth Social post. Polymarket odds climbed from 60% to 93% in the weeks leading up to the announcement, and Bitcoin responded accordingly: Jan 16: Warsh odds at 60% (Market begins to hedge) Jan 28: Bitcoin peaks at $89K Jan 30: Warsh officially nominated (The drop to $78K) Feb 5: Bitcoin bottoms near $72K (A total -19% drawdown) THE SCHIZOPHRENIC NARRATIVE The market is currently punishing risk assets based on Warsh's historical hawkishness from 2006-2011. However, the data suggests a different reality for 2026: Bear View: Warsh is an inflation hawk who will prioritize QT and balance sheet reduction over rate cuts. Bull View: Warsh has explicitly aligned with Trump's 2025 push for lower rates. Analyst Robin Brooks even predicts 100bps of cuts by October to match an AI-driven disinflationary thesis. BITCOIN AT THE INFLECTION POINT With Bitcoin reaching MVRV 1.0, we are entering a deep value zone where the risk/reward ratio flips. 1. Hawkishness is Priced: The 19% crash reflects the market's worst fears. 2. Rate Cuts are Not: Polymarket shows a 60% probability of a June cut, but Bitcoin is trading like it expects a pause. 3. Negative Carry Flip: The high opportunity cost of holding BTC is disappearing as the 4-6 month countdown to cuts begins. EXPECTED VALUE BREAKDOWN Bear Case (30% Prob): Further drop to $65K. Impact: Temporary paper loss, average in lower. Base Case (50% Prob): Rally to $90K by June. Impact: +25% return. Bull Case (20% Prob): Aggressive 100bps cuts drive BTC to $115K. Impact: +60% return. Expected Value: +27%. This is a mathematically superior trade to hold a long for 2026.

THE GREAT STAGNATION OF 2025 $BTC Despite the noise, Bitcoin has effectively been range-bound for nearly a year. While the initial post-election period saw a violent repricing, the last 12 months have been defined by chop, not the "super cycle" moonshot many predicted. Here is the breakdown of why price action has stalled since the 2024 election. PHASE 1: THE TRUMP TRADE (NOV 2024 - JAN 2025) ------------------------------------------------ Immediately following the November 5th victory, Bitcoin staged its most aggressive move of the cycle. - Starting Price: ~$69,000 (Election Day) - Ending Price: ~$103,000 (Inauguration Day, Jan 20, 2025) - Driver: Pure speculation on the "Crypto President" narrative. The market priced in 4 years of policy changes in 8 weeks. - Result: A 45% rally that front-ran the actual events. By the time Trump took the oath, the easy money had already been made. PHASE 2: BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS (MAR 2025 - OCT 2025) ------------------------------------------------ The "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" Executive Order was signed on March 6, 2025. In any other cycle, this would have sent price to $200k. In 2025, it became a "sell the news" event. - The Peak: Bitcoin ground its way to an All-Time High of ~$126,000 in early October 2025. - The Catalyst: The 90-day tariff pause with China and the formalization of the US Digital Asset Stockpile. - The Failure: Institutional buying was absorbed by massive profit-taking from long-term holders (2016-2020 whales) who used the government news as exit liquidity. PHASE 3: THE LIQUIDATION & "ICE AGE" (OCT 2025 - PRESENT) ------------------------------------------------ - October 10 Event: A leverage flush drove BTC from $126k back to $110k in days. - Macro Headwinds: Renewed trade war tensions in late 2025 spiked the dollar and crushed risk assets. - Retail Apathy: Google Search trends for "Bitcoin" dropped 50% YoY. The retail crowd chased AI stocks and Silver (which hit $95/oz), ignoring crypto. CURRENT STATE: JANUARY 2026 ------------------------------------------------ - Current Price: ~$91,000 - $92,000 - Net Move (1 Year): Down ~12% from the inauguration price of $103k. - Net Move (Since Election): Up ~30%, but all gains occurred in late 2024. - Sentiment: "Ice Age." Volumes on major exchanges like Upbit and Coinbase are down 7-fold compared to early 2025. Bitcoin hasn't "moved much" because it is trapped between two massive forces: 1. Support ($85k): Sovereign buying (US Strategic Reserve floor). 2. Resistance ($120k): Macroeconomic tightening and lack of new retail capital. We are currently in a "sovereign accumulation range"—boring price action designed to transfer coins from impatient retail traders to patient state actors. Image Credits @ARKInvest

The "Silent Accumulation" Phase $BTC price is boring, but the on-chain data is screaming value. We are seeing a massive divergence: Price is flat ↔️ Fair Value is rising 📈. Our AHR999 model shows we are sitting right on the "Fair Value Baseline." This is the zone where smart money accumulates while retail gets bored. Does buying the "Boring Zone" work? We backtested this specific setup ($10k starting portfolio): 📉 Buy & Hold: $34,474 (+244%) 📈 AHR Swing Strategy: $60,693 (+507%) The Rules: 🟢 BUY (<0.65): Aggressive Accumulation (Current Zone). 🔴 SELL (>1.70): Profit Taking (Mania Phase). 2026 Outlook: The floor is rising. Risk: ~$85k (Strong Support) Target: $200k+ (Mean Reversion) We are treating the current $90k-$100k range as a gift. Accumulate the drift.

Wishing you and your loved ones a wonderful Christmas and a prosperous New Year! While this holiday season has presented its share of challenges for the crypto market, it’s important to remember that periods of consolidation and uncertainty are a natural part of every market cycle. Even though prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are lower than last year and sentiment feels subdued, these quieter times often lay the foundation for future growth and innovation. Many seasoned investors know that moments like these can offer valuable opportunities to learn, build, and prepare for the next wave of excitement. As we reflect on the past year, let’s stay focused on the long-term vision and the resilience of the crypto community. The market has weathered many storms before, and history shows that patience and optimism are often rewarded. Here’s to embracing the journey ahead, staying positive, and looking forward to new possibilities in 2026.