Looking for work. High end / global Product / IT Infrastructure.
Northern Ireland
Joined October 2017
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Craig Rodgers retweeted
China is building around 69 power semiconductor fabs (under construction, planned, or ramping) across 58 suppliers
15 are planned, 29 are under construction, and 25 are ramping up production
This is a really interesting chart.
I attended the TrendForce San Francisco roadshow yesterday, and this chart got me thinking about a lot of things.
China is now expected to localize more than half, or close to half, of most equipment categories, excluding lithography and track.
What does this mean? It means China can now expand mature node capacity far more easily than before, using equipment made domestically within China.
Mature node foundries are booming right now, right? That's thanks to the AI supercycle driving demand for PMICs, power semiconductors, and so on.
Samsung and TSMC shutting down their mature node capacity has also helped a lot.
But here's what I imagine... that China could oversupply mature foundry capacity.
Think about it. If China can be self sufficient in equipment, there's no limit to how far it can expand capacity. Then are companies like TI, with large revenue exposure to China, really safe?
I think it's time to take another look at Western mature foundry companies with a high share of China revenue.
Of course, I'm not saying sell TI right now. I'm just saying we should think about whether it makes sense to hold them for 10 years or more, like Coca Cola.
If you have a different view, please feel free to share it. I’d love to learn.
Craig Rodgers retweeted
Roadster xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwNgg…
Craig Rodgers retweeted
Maybe we should start a competitor to Amazon 🤔
amazon is blocking grok @bots from ordering, and elon's answer is just have your bot buy it somewhere else.
one of my grok bots only handles my amazon returns, so i'm watching this one closely.
would you switch stores for your bot? 🛒
Elon, i think its time for an X Shop? 👀
So, AI takes over, billionaires who invested decided to give us all universal high income because none of them are power hungry or greedy!!
Jeez, what are the chances?
I’ve had countless people on this app argue with me that Anthropic has a $65BN ARR.
Here’s a quick lesson on the discrepancy between venture capital power point math and real accounting math.
OPEN AI IS MINUS $20BN AND THEY ARE NOT YET PCOAB AUDITED.
Privately, I made a bet with several people on this app, payable in pushups, that Anthropic would see a $20BN revenue write down. Remember the difference, OpenAI is not PC audited (yet) and Anthropic is, their 2026 numbers won’t be reported until April-ish in 2027.
The fact that Open AI voluntarily abandoned fake venture math power point accounting for some real accounting means they are getting ahead of it and Sam Altman is an operator. This is bite one. A PC audit will drive them down further. Maybe as much as $10BN more.
No, Oracle and NVIDIA coupons are not revenue. No, they are not arms length transactions.
Where Anthropic reports $65BN run rate for 2026, I expect it to be $45BN or less. If I’m right, the other guys do 100 pushups. If I’m wrong, I do 100 pushups.
There’s also something important to learn about companies spending at Anthropic - a lot of this is one time CAPEX. Reports have come out about how Facebook and Microsoft used Claude to build their product (in essence, vibe coding), but now the competing products are built and the spend is getting pulled. That’s either a one time CAPEX or an R&D expense.
Don’t get me wrong, Anthropic has built incredible technology, so good that their competition uses it.
No one that relies on Anthropic will direct the same level of spend towards them in the future. Use Anthropic to build your tech, then pivot to a lower cost open source model to run the technology.
I know multiple founders that are getting $20k /month in value from Anthropic for $1k/month, subsidized by Anthropic investors. They are racing to build their product before Anthropic hikes prices.
Do you think they are ever coming back as customers once their product is built and they have to pay $20k / month? Not a chance.
So where does this all land? Anthropic will have a large IPO (not $2TN) and will be the premier frontier AI model.
The market will have to adjust their pricing on the stock to account for a significant portion of Anthropic’s revenue to be one time spend in lieu of ARR.
Open AI will watch carefully and fix what they can ahead of their own IPO.
Debt providers and long term contract holders of the AI data centers will have to restructure because they can’t afford for either company to fail.
For me to buy the Anthropic stock directly, I’m going to need to see that 2026 PCAOB audit first.
Frontier models will be unprofitable for a long-long time.
The only people that turn a profit in this whole thing are the contractors and developers who built the data centers.
H/t: @RobertMSterling
Do all Americans in TV shows have a built in compass? "Head to the south west stairwell" How the hell do they know?
Craig Rodgers retweeted
A physics professor declared his experiment dead on TV and turned his back. 30 seconds later the steel tank crushed itself. Watch his face when he finds out.
He had failed this trick before. Once in Uppsala, Sweden. Once on the previous episode of his own show.
The setup takes 3 steps. Boil water inside a steel tank, plug it, pour cold water over it. The tank should fold like a soda can.
His tank held. His assistant Anderson poured buckets of cold water, then switched to ice. The professor blamed the circular steel ribs welded around it.
So he quit.
Steam had pushed the air out. Cold water turned that steam back into liquid, shrinking it 1,600 times. The inside dropped toward vacuum, and the air outside pressed on every square metre with close to 10 tonnes.
Physics never quit. It only needed a few more seconds.
His first question after the crash was 5 words long.
Craig Rodgers retweeted
Holy crap.
Rick and Morty just explained Jev AI to me better than any tech demo could.
Craig Rodgers retweeted
My PDP-11 from the 1980s is now live on the Internet at:
pdp1173.com/
So far it's handled a couple of hundred guests without leaning over, but we'll see how it does! You should get a live process list that updates every 5 seconds.
If you connect from anywhere far away, let me know, I'm curious!
