Been a bit quiet on here. I haven’t opened my portfolio since Thursday.
I’m not buying or selling at the moment, so sitting there watching every red candle isn’t doing me any favours 😂
Still invested, just taking a break from the screens and getting on with life.
Sometimes the best thing you can do is turn the bloody phone off.
CONVICTIONLAB retweeted
Goldman Sachs raised their $ZETA Global price target…
PT: $30 → $45
Rating: Buy
Commentary:
Goldman "views Zeta as a "differentiated" marketing technology platform at the intersection of customer data, campaign activation, and measurement. The firm sees the company gaining share from legacy marketing platforms and fragmented point solutions. Zeta is positioned to benefit from its platform breadth as enterprises look to consolidate software spend and create room for AI investments... Goldman expects upside to consensus estimates to drive a further rally in the shares."
$ZETA
CONVICTIONLAB retweeted
$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic.
For analyst Q&A rounds:
Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity
A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components.
Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029.
This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff.
Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility)
A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial.
It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand.
Q: On pricing power:
A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight.
(Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press)
Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual
- TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations.
- Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins.
TLDR:
- No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing.
- On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand:
$TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand.
During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing.
Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.
Wow $CRWV hits my avarage cost $66 i rememebr saying why didnt i buy more shares when it was 130.
Apparently attending Zeta Live now makes you a “paid shill”. What a lazy argument.
People spend months researching $ZETA , then get the chance to meet management, ask questions and speak to customers. Of course they’re going to want to be there. I’d have liked to go myself.
If you’ve got evidence someone was paid to promote the stock without disclosing it, put it out there. That deserves scrutiny. But a photo at an event isn’t evidence of a secret cheque.
And attending doesn’t make someone’s research automatically good either. Judge what they actually say. Check their numbers. Challenge their assumptions.
Tell me where the growth thesis breaks. Show me the dilution people are ignoring. Explain why the valuation doesn’t work. I’ll happily read a proper bear case.
But calling everyone bought because they’re bullish and you disagree? That’s a pathetic substitute for doing the work.
You don’t have to like the company. You do need something better than an accusation you can’t back up.
1/7
Five firms raised their $ZETA price targets today, the morning after Zeta Live.
I had my frustrations with the livestream, but this is an encouraging response to what the company presented.
Who are they, and what changed? 🧵
2/7
KeyBanc: **$27 → $38**. Up 41%.
Part of US banking group KeyCorp. Analyst Jack Nichols kept Overweight.
Their take on AthenaOS and MCP interests me: making Zeta’s intelligence accessible through other apps could make it more useful to customers.
3/7
Needham: **$30 → $40**. Up 33%.
An investment bank focused on growth companies. Analyst Scott Berg kept Buy.
The bit I liked: positive customer conversations about marketing AI at the event. Hearing demand from customers carries weight with me.
4/7
Truist: **$30 → $38**. Up 27%.
The corporate and investment banking arm of Truist Financial. Analyst Terry Tillman attended Zeta Live and kept Buy.
His note covered AthenaOS, MCP, specialised AI models and the early chip plans. Plenty there to follow.
5/7
Canaccord Genuity: **$30 → $37**. Up 23%.
A global investment banking and research firm. Analyst David Hynes kept Buy.
Another sizeable increase. I’ll be watching whether higher revenue and cash-flow forecasts follow these higher targets.
6/7
B. Riley: **$32 → $38**. Up 19%.
A US investment bank with roots in small-cap research. Kept Buy.
That completes today’s five. These are analyst calls rather than announcements of share purchases, but the direction of all five changes is encouraging.
7/7
Five firms lifting targets by 19%–41% in one morning gets my attention.
To me, that suggests Zeta Live gave analysts more confidence in where this business is heading.
Targets now sit at **$37–$40** across these five. A strong follow-up to yesterday’s announcements. $ZETA
Finished work early today, had the house to myself and got settled in for $ZETA Live. Been looking forward to this for weeks.
Have to admit, the livestream was disappointing. No sound at the start, several cut-outs, then it disappeared.
I hold 15,550 shares and remain bullish on where Zeta is heading. I wanted to hear every word, which is why it was frustrating.
Hopefully the full recordings go up soon. Plenty of us watching from across the pond were excited to be part of it. Just a bit of honest feedback from an invested shareholder.
CONVICTIONLAB retweeted
Mohammed Abbas came by boat in March.
By June, he’d assaulted a police officer and was convicted.
By July, he’d been given a free home. Two days later, he sexually assaulted two young girls.
Only Reform will end this utter madness.
$APLD earnings out.
Quite a bit to like. Base rent grew roughly 49% on last quarter and adjusted EBITDA grew 52%. They’ve now got 250 MW operational, with 300 MW targeted by year-end.
Seeing the buildings start earning rent gives me more confidence in the business.
The funding side still needs watching though. Debt is now $6.4bn, investment spending was around $2.1bn this quarter and dilution continues.
The 322% revenue growth looks impressive, but over half the revenue came from tenant fit-out work. Worth understanding what’s behind that headline.
For me, the question on tonight’s call is how much more money they need to finish the contracted projects—and how much of that comes from shareholders.
Good progress. Still plenty to listen for.
Seeing all these New York $ZETA posts making me very happy and sad I’m not in NYC
Today’s little shopping list
Three new positions:
$ROAD — $88.50
Road building, resurfacing and maintenance. A business I can get my head around, with room to grow its network of local operators.
$ACHR — $4.50
Taking a punt on electric air taxis. Big potential if they can make it work commercially, but plenty of execution and funding risk.
$QS — $4.50
Solid-state batteries. The technology interests me, but producing it successfully at scale is what matters. Plenty still to prove.
And a few DCA buys in existing positions:
$GRAB — $3.00
Still believe in the Southeast Asian ecosystem they’re building around transport, deliveries and financial services. My longer-term view hasn’t changed.
$XE — $14.25
I like having exposure to both the reactors and the fuel through TRISO-X. This needs patience though; commercial deployment takes years.
$APLD — $24.00
The data centres behind AI growth. The long-term leases appeal to me, but financing and getting the projects built remain the big things to watch.
$DUOT — a small DCA here too.
Still a watch position for me. The AI infrastructure opportunity interests me, but they need to get the funding and delivery right.
Also got my finger on the trigger for $AXP. Haven’t bought yet, but I’m watching closely
Happy with my entries. Doesn’t mean I’ve caught the bottom, and the more speculative names will need to earn any future adds.
CONVICTIONLAB retweeted
AI agents are having a real moment right now. But here’s our test: can they help more people earn a better living?
Southeast Asia is home to some of the world’s smallest business owners. On top of serving customers, they’re finance, marketing and operations teams all-in-one. They don’t have business tools. Some are only just coming online. And many struggle to reach customers themselves.
Grab’s Merchant AI Assistant is an agent within the Grab Merchant app that recommends and executes business tasks on their behalf. Taking operational gruntwork – and guesswork – off their plates.
Restaurant merchants use it to update menus, run marketing campaigns, analyze financials, sales and orders. And they’re asking for more, from personalizing review replies to benchmarking competitors.
Their message is clear: understand my business. Help me grow my business. And help me get stuff done. We see this demand in the numbers. Merchant AI Assistant has driven a 15% boost in GMV for engaged users since we launched it in 2024.
The Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam are some of our top markets driving adoption. Really cool to see how people are using AI to support their livelihoods in parts of the world far removed from Silicon Valley.
That’s how we see the bar for agents at Grab: turn convenience into greater economic freedom.
$GRAB
15,550 shares of $ZETA and plenty to keep an eye on this week.
Two acquisitions announced in two days, ahead of Zeta Live tomorrow.
Senso helps brands get found through AI platforms like ChatGPT. Digital Audience adds customer identity and campaign technology, plus more data and AI engineers.
Both already work with Zeta. Looks to me like they’re bringing more of the technology and people in-house to speed things up.
After Steinberg’s comments last night, I’m watching for what could be coming today. My guess is a bigger partnership or a commercial update, possibly involving Palantir. Pure speculation on my part.
I like the direction, but we still don’t know what they’re paying for these businesses. An acquisition only earns its keep if it creates value for shareholders.
I’d have loved to come across the pond for Zeta Live and see it all in person. Maybe next time!
He’s certainly built expectations for Thursday. Now I want to see what customers can actually buy and who’s already paying for it.