✍️Researching great businesses. Some undervalued, all high quality. Always learning 🔗 https://xitter.cf/t.co/k91CQDZ0Ov
Joined April 2012
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$AMRZ thesis is out.
Part of the reason I started looking at Amrize was the work I’d already done on Buzzi. But Amrize is much more than cement, and that changed how I approached the valuation.
Full thesis is free. Model Book for paid subscribers.
Still going through $AMRZ's Q3. I expected margin pressure, but BE was worse than I thought. EBITDA fell 14.6% YoY, and price increases won't cover cost inflation until 2027.
Need to look into this over the next few days. Down 5% after hours. I think BE is a big part of why.
A few more updates to colubeat.com!
I keep tweaking things whenever I have some free time. I genuinely enjoy building this stuff.
For $AMRZ, higher aggregates prices and ASPIRE should help margins. GCC's new Odessa line should lower its freight costs. But it has also bought ready-mix operations in Midland-Odessa, where Amrize bought PB Materials. That's the more direct competition I'd watch.
Colubeat ID retweeted
$AMRZ thesis is out.
Part of the reason I started looking at Amrize was the work I’d already done on Buzzi. But Amrize is much more than cement, and that changed how I approached the valuation.
Full thesis is free. Model Book for paid subscribers.
I thought the market was getting too negative on $POOL before Q3. Now the stock is up more than 14% after earnings.
Liked POOL's early-buy decision in July, despite the cash it tied up, and I'm giving Watwood more credit now for what he's doing on the sales side too.
Q3 review👇
Eurofins was a bargain at €57 when I published the thesis. Still interesting at €81? $ERF.PA
Free to read: colubeatid.substack.com/p/eu…
Eurofins $ERF grew 3.5% organically in Q3 (3.2% adjusted for working days). I estimate almost 1pp came from start-ups, but that counts too. BioPharma improved, but Eurofins cut its 2026 organic growth outlook.
I like that the 24% EBITDA margin target for 2027 still stands.
1/2
Eurofins $ERF grew 3.5% organically in Q3 (3.2% adjusted for working days). I estimate almost 1pp came from start-ups, but that counts too. BioPharma improved, but Eurofins cut its 2026 organic growth outlook.
I like that the 24% EBITDA margin target for 2027 still stands.
1/2
*On the growth cut, Gilles said some clinical programs expected in Q4 won't start this year, and Europe remains weak. He also said the LIMS rollout is "costing us growth", with backlogs and teams dealing with client complaints instead of focusing on winning new clients.
Feels like a good time to have an honest talk about $FRPH.
There's plenty to question about FRP right now, and I think some criticism is fair. But there's more to discuss, from what the assets are worth to what we can expect going forward.
There you go. Happy Saturday!
Let's talk about $FRPH .
Feels like nobody wants to touch it right now, and I get why. But there's a lot more to this company than what's going wrong.
I've probably never looked this closely at FRP before. And no, I'm not going to tell you to just be patient.
Soon.
New $RYN article. If you own Rayonier or are looking at it, I hope this helps you get to a better conclusion.
I wanted to know what a shareholder can earn from $18.👇
$BZU.MI starts another €100m buyback today, after €200m earlier this year. Another 1.5% of the company at today's price.
