Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy @SchwabResearch. Disclosures: https://xitter.cf/t.co/yrD1HkxTnx
New York
Joined July 2011
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On our latest episode of #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I discuss this week's CPI report and what it means for the Fed, and how the impact of higher yields on companies can vary depending on how rate-sensitive they are.
I then had a fantastic chat with Bryan Whalen, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at @TCWGroup. We discussed the AI infrastructure buildout, how it's impacting the broad bond market, and...French pastries.
schwab.com/learn/story/whos-…
Check out our latest article on corporate bonds and preferred securities:
schwab.com/learn/story/why-d…
Wondering what Fed rate hikes could mean for stocks, bonds, and the economy? Check out the latest article I coauthored with fellow subject-matter experts from the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
schwab.com/learn/story/fed-r…
The Fed is raising rates again, but this cycle may look different from many of the rate-hiking periods investors have experienced in the past.
In this article, my colleagues and I discuss why supply-side pressures, AI-driven investment, and resilient economic growth may shape the path of interest rates, along with what it could mean for stocks, bonds, and the broader economy.
Worth a read for investors trying to separate the headlines from the bigger picture:
schwab.com/learn/story/fed-r…
Check out our latest #OnInvesting episode featuring @NelaRichardson from ADP. The conversation touched all things jobs, including manufacturing, labor shortages, overtime trends, job-switching premiums, and how demographic shifts are reshaping workforce dynamics.
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I riff on markets and I sit down with the always-insightful @NelaRichardson from ADP to talk all things jobs-related
schwab.com/learn/story/what-…
On our latest episode of #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I discuss the move up in Treasury yields and the shifting shape of the yield curve, cooling inflation, and what all of this means for the markets. Liz Ann then had a great chat with Eric Liu on investor positioning.
schwab.com/learn/story/why-i…
Credit update: Average CCC spreads are now above 10%, or "distressed". It's the highest level since March 2023.
Rising Treasury yields finally began to weigh on the credit markets last week. The average option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index rose 30 basis points in just three days and closed at the highest level since early April.
CCCs had already been showing cracks. This chart shows the YTD change in spread for each credit rating sub-index. CCC spreads are now up 325bps for the year, but BB and B spreads are now up YTD as well, albeit modestly.
Check out our latest episode of #OnInvesting! @LizAnnSonders and I chat about what's happening under the surface of the equity markets, and how investors should be thinking about the recent move up in yields.
Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I focus on what rising interest rates are really signaling, why stock market strength is masking weakness in breadth beneath surface, and how investors should think about bond allocations in higher-for-longer rate environment: schwab.com/learn/story/what-…
Looking for investor questions!
For an upcoming video series, I'll be answering your biggest questions about the bond market and fixed income investing—from the Fed outlook, what's happening with Treasury yields, and where there may be opportunities today.
I want to address the questions that are top of mind for you. Please share your questions in the comments, and let me know what fixed income topics you'd like to see covered.
I had the pleasure of joining @MikeTownsendCS on his #WashingtonWise podcast this week. It was great timing given the recent rise in bond yields. We discussed the recent Fed rate hike—and more importantly, what comes next—as well as what’s been driving long-term Treasury yields higher, what may (or may not) be accomplished by the Treasury’s upsized liquidity buybacks, and where we see opportunities in the bond market today.
Give it a listen and share with a friend!
schwab.com/learn/story/bond-…
We've updated our bond market views following last week's Fed rate hike.
We expect at least one additional rate hike by year-end, with one more possible later this year or sometime in 2027. Inflation trends will dictate how much tightening is necessary.
We've also raised our near-term expected range for the 10-year Treasury yield to the 4.5% to 5% area. As we're seeing now with the yield currently above 5%, there may be periods of time when it fluctuates in and out of that range. As we discuss in this commentary, we think additional upside should be relatively limited.
Our "below benchmark" average duration guidance remains since the 10-year Treasury yield tends to peak near the last rate hike of a cycle, not the first. While upside may be limited, we don't think investors will necessarily miss the opportunity to earn these high yields. With an uncertain outlook, we prefer short- and intermediate-term maturities.
schwab.com/learn/story/fed-h…
Catch me on @CNBCClosingBell today at 4pm ET. Looking forward to chatting with @michaelsantoli about the latest bond market action.
That happened quick - the 10-year Treasury yield is now up to 5.12%. If that seems like a sharp move, it is. It's the largest one day increase since April 7th, 2025, a few days after last year's tariff announcements.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose firmly above 5% following this release
Remarkable strength from the US PMIs in September per @SPGlobalPMI ... manufacturing rose to a 52-month high while services rose to a 59-month high
Check out our latest episode of the #OnInvesting podcast. @LizAnnSonders and I chat about this week’s much anticipated Fed decision, what lies ahead, and what that might mean for the markets.
schwab.com/learn/story/whats…
