Food for thought! "Ricardian Non-Equivalence" by Martin Eichenbaum, Joao Guerreiro, and Jana Obradovic. "This paper presents new survey evidence on how household spending responds to fiscal transfers. Our key finding is that the planned propensity to spend out of transfers equals the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), implying that households do not incorporate future tax liabilities into their spending plans. The canonical HANK model cannot account for this evidence because households are overly sensitive to future taxes. We develop an extended HANK model in which households are partially inattentive to future tax liabilities and to general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy. This inattention dampens forward-looking intertemporal MPCs and increases transfer and spending multipliers." jguerreiro.com/files/EGO_RNE…

Highly recommended! "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data" by Tamar den Besten and Diego R. Känzig. "We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime." dkaenzig.github.io/diegokaen…