@ColeRotmani
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Joined January 2012
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Cole Rotman retweeted
TIL: New York bagels are the way they are because of a culinary mafia.
For much of the 20th century, bagels in NYC were controlled by Bagel Bakers Local 338, a union of Jewish bakers who enforced wages and very specific standards around how bagels were made.
The bagelmakers did a great job negotiating... for every date I looked up, the standard salaries for bagelmakers were $75–$100k in todays dollars- far more than teachers or police made at the time.
They also controlled what a bagel was. To be called Bagels (or Beigels) they had to be made of high-gluten flour, water, salt, yeast, and malt- with no sugar or dairy. Bagels had to be hand-rolled, boiled, and baked on stone, and they maintained uniformity across bakeries by random taste tests. There were 6 flavors: Plain, Poppy, Sesame, Salt, Onion, Garlic.
They defended their power like a mafia: they routinely went on strike, and crushed every non-union bagel shop that popped up, by picketing, offering free bagels in front of non-union shops, and by telling all their suppliers that if they supplied to the non-union shop they'd lose the union business, which no supplier could afford to do.
In 1964, they standardized the spelling from beigel, baigel, beygel, or beygl to "Bagel"
The cartel ruled the bagel industry in New York for ~70 years, until a California-based company came in with a technology that made it a lot cheaper (the Uber of its time? Lots of similarities to taxi medallions!).
Daniel Thompson, an inventor in LA created a machine that could make bagels way faster and 4x cheaper.
The machine-made bagels didn't taste as good, but they were a lot cheaper and had a longer shelf-life.
By the late ’70s, the Local 338 union had collapsed. Mass-market bagels had won.
The bagel machine was part of a broader postwar trend, and was late to it: food became cheaper, softer, and mass-produced... bagels went from chewy and handmade to frozen and uniform. It fit the era’s obsession with convenience.
Making them cheaper also made them popular... they went from a niche Jewish delicacy to a popular breakfast item for many. Many of us grew up with Lender's frozen bagels... Lender's was the largest buyer of the Thompson bagel machine.
In New York, handmade bagels mostly disappeared from the 70s to the 90s. But now, after decades of industrial food, we crave the opposite, and handmade bagels have made a comeback in New York.
Today’s best bagels look a lot like the ones from a century ago: hand-rolled, boiled, blistered, and slightly uneven. All of our favorite spots (Brooklyn bagel, Apollo, Popup) make their bagels by hand.
Your average deli bagel though? It's made in a machine, steamed not boiled, and done on a rotating rack oven. It looks like a bagel but does not have the chew or crust of a real handmade bagel. The average deli bagel, even in New York, is absolute crap!
“The AI Era”
New thoughts from our co-founder, Saurabh Gupta:
sgthoughts.substack.com/p/th…
Best pitch advice: refine after every meeting based on questions.
Small upgrades can compound fast and allow you to preemptively address questions before they’re asked, which makes your audience think…
“Wow they must know exactly what they’re doing b/c they think like me”
Cole Rotman retweeted
Inspired by @ColeRotman, we looked at the seed rounds of all the AI Unicorns founded post transformer. Interestingly, none have come out of YC, and no one except a16z has led or co-led more than 2 seeds. ~20% of the founders pivoted to their current businesses.
Friendly reminder @duolingo is a $24bn market cap company
83% of revenue is subscription-based from the core language learning product…
Which has ~7% TAM penetration based on 130m MAUs / 1,800m global second language learners (source: S1)
🤯🤯🤯
Cole Rotman retweeted
Friendly reminder when you see media report numbers and events quoting this:
- “Gaza Ministry of Health” = Hamas
- “Gaza health officials” = Hamas
- “Gaza authorities” = Hamas
- “Gaza officials” = Hamas
- “Local authorities” = Hamas
- “Health authorities” = Hamas
Cole Rotman retweeted
it’s been well documented and posted about but successful people wanting to be popular online yet not being able to do so no matter how hard they try is one of the things that makes this site so great. it’s something money can’t buy. some real metaverse shit if you think about it
I am begging you, anyone, please use my email history to understand my taste / budget via a decade of restaurant, hotel, and travel reservations, and create a personalized travel search + itinerary product with agentic booking + payment.
Thank you.
I remember @altcap posting this back in 2023… which is 19 years in AI era⏳
AI will totally change how we plan / book travel - gone will be pecking through lists - just tell your intelligent assistant to book your hotel / flight. The web leaders (booking, expedia) have data moats but risk they get demoted to bottom of funnel. youtu.be/CbXnqWKAjGM
Well timed @apoorv03
“You can get a fully autonomous ride from a Waymo or Tesla today. But AI Agents can't book you a flight fully autonomously yet.”
apoorv03.com/p/autonomy
Thoroughly enjoy Andrej’s breakdowns
Very impressed with Veo 3 and all the things people are finding on r/aivideo etc. Makes a big difference qualitatively when you add audio.
There are a few macro aspects to video generation that may not be fully appreciated:
1. Video is the highest bandwidth input to brain. Not just for entertainment but also for work/learning - think diagrams, charts, animations, etc.
2. Video is the most easy/fun. The average person doesn't like reading/writing, it's very effortful. Anyone can (and wants to) engage with video.
3. The barrier to creating videos is -> 0.
4. For the first time, video is directly optimizable.
I have to emphasize/explain the gravity of (4) a bit more. Until now, video has been all about indexing, ranking and serving a finite set of candidates that are (expensively) created by humans. If you are TikTok and you want to keep the attention of a person, the name of the game is to get creators to make videos, and then figure out which video to serve to which person. Collectively, the system of "human creators learning what people like and then ranking algorithms learning how to best show a video to a person" is a very, very poor optimizer. Ok, people are already addicted to TikTok so clearly it's pretty decent, but it's imo nowhere near what is possible in principle.
The videos coming from Veo 3 and friends are the output of a neural network. This is a differentiable process. So you can now take arbitrary objectives, and crush them with gradient descent. I expect that this optimizer will turn out to be significantly, significantly more powerful than what we've seen so far. Even just the iterative, discrete process of optimizing prompts alone via both humans or AIs (and leaving parameters unchanged) may be a strong enough optimizer. So now we can take e.g. engagement (or pupil dilations or etc.) and optimize generated videos directly against that. Or we take ad click conversion and directly optimize against that.
Why index a finite set of videos when you can generate them infinitely and optimize them directly.
I think video has the potential to be an incredible surface for AI -> human communication, future AI GUIs etc. Think about how much easier it is to grok something from a really great diagram or an animation instead of a wall of text. And an incredible medium for human creativity. But this native, high bandwidth medium is also becoming directly optimizable. Imo, TikTok is nothing compared to what is possible. And I'm not so sure that we will like what "optimal" looks like.