Trading. AI. Building AlphaPair. Collaborating with @pear_protocol.
Joined September 2022
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CoinNotes retweeted
The market will be cautious on BTC as long as its decentralisation is perceived as an obstacle to adapting to emerging technological threats (AI/quantum). Protocols that are more centrally maintained are actually better positioned.
ETH + ZEC still look like good bets for next cycle (ZEC provisional, depends if it got pwned). But first lower.
CoinNotes retweeted
It turns out, I was underestimating. When nobody cared or believed, all you had to do was participate.
CoinNotes retweeted
Most people have predicted this Bitcoin bear market would be shallower and shorter than average: we now have passive institutional flows and stronger hands buying.
I want the speculate on an alternative: this bear market could be considerably worse. Here's why.
Why does anyone buy Bitcoin? I'm not talking about the OGs who are now unloading into Wall Street, the True Believers. I'm talking about everyone who has bought it since, say, 2017.
It's the exponential growth, stupid. They don't want to hold stocks for a 'safe' 7% a year. They need to escape the permanent underclass, or wage slavery, or whatever the latest description is, and they need it now.
For that promise, buyers in this market have been willing to endure 70-80% drawdowns every 4 years.
But that promise is fading.
🔸 Each cycle offers worse returns than the last.
🔸 As Bitcoin inevitably trades deep into 'last cycle' prices for the first time, even longer term holders' conviction will be challenged as it never was before.
🔸 It is a well known dynamic that people are more willing to hold as long as they are in profit. In previous cycles, all n-1 cycle buyers remained in profit. This time they will not. That will unlock new sellers.
🔸 Volatility and easy leverage in other markets offer alternative routes to the same end, making the case for new buyers less straightforward.
🔸 Generally, everyone now knows about Bitcoin and anyone who wants to buy Bitcoin now has a way to. The next marginal buyer will be much harder to find.
All of this is to say nothing of the possibility of a wider economic downturn. My concerns are based purely on Bitcoin's mythology, narrative appeal, and price dynamics.
Ultimately, I still intend to buy BTC at and below the 200 week SMA. However, I think there is a significant likelihood that we could be given opportunities to buy materially lower than that, and that this bear market could last, for example, 3 years instead of 1.
CoinNotes retweeted
$LAC
Seen some great traders accumulating. Looks like a great HTF setup.
Monthly: Potential higher low. Monthly resistance flipped to support. Momentum oscillators ready to flip positive for the first time since 2020.
Weekly: EMAs compressing and starting to cross.
Daily: Swept lows, reclaims, EMAs have crossed, 200EMA tested and held as support.
H4: Same story as daily.
On every timeframe, it's looking ready for a move.
CoinNotes retweeted
Yes I did.
One is about all my best trading advice for trading scam coins: cryptonarratives.substack.co…
The other is a compilation of all the scam pumps and their features: cryptonarratives.substack.co…
(They are under a paywall but you can theoretically subscribe for one month only)
CoinNotes retweeted
Momentum tells the story, every time.
Leaders starting to show signs of exhaustion. Want to see them move higher relatively quickly to sustain their trends.
If these start trading below their previous highs, that's probably a good signal to exit the market and wait for a deeper pullback.
$ZEC as example.
CoinNotes retweeted
Here's the idea, for reference. Easy invalidation.
Trading Long ZEC / Short BTC on this news. Quantum resistant private BTC vs Dino BTC.
Chart looks pretty good. NFA etc.
Trade with me on @pear_protocol using the link below.
CoinNotes retweeted
I think it’s even more than this.
We made the internet so central to our lives. It cannibalised real world interactions, but it created a space where you could form community purely based on merit and ideas, not superficial qualities.
But now that space is imploding, all authentic interaction being choked out of it by the drive to optimise for profit and engagement, and now also by the exponential growth in non-human actors.
There’s nowhere left for us to exist, meet each other or hear each other.
CoinNotes retweeted
was walking along the river when it hit me that game theory isnt just unravelling on a geopolitical level but on a cultural level. in fact it probably has been long before it perpetuated up to the state level. but theres this broad sense of unease you only feel during recessionary periods, a "every man for himself" type of atmosphere
i realise there is a lot less laughter in the parks i frequent, in the coffee shops i go to, and in the drivers who i talk to. lesser smiles as people are crushed by the economy and the weight of the algorithm forcing them to look at atrocities all across the world. this leads to a broad opting out of the (cooperate, cooperate) game theory that defined most of early 2000s - 2010s and its manifested as more hate, echo chambers, racism, etc.
generally society feels less cohesive than it used to as people watch the ones supposed to lead the country, loot the treasury instead. in such a state the only logical optimal outcome is to follow them, because "if they can do it, we can do it too" and it spirals all the way down to the common man.
once again, just an observation. late stage capitalism cycle things innit? we are in the "hard times create strong men" part of the cycle unfortunately
CoinNotes retweeted
This person is getting nearly $20,000 worth of $HYPE tokens today
Just for using @pear_protocol
But you’ll still fade us anon 🍐
End of another Season.
Should be getting just under 500 Hype...a good 5 figure stimmy.
On to the next 👀 Come join me.
pear.garden/trade?referral=C…
