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The BRL Collapse and What It Means for Coffee
In this article, we explain why the Brazilian real (BRL) collapsed, what we expect from it going forward, and the implications for coffee.
coffeetradingacademy.com/pos…
Vietnam exported 1.81m bags in Oct, the first month of the 26/27 season. That's a hefty 63% above a year ago (1.13m bags) and 66.5% above the 5-year average (1.2m). Seasonal tendency is for exports to increase in Nov-Jan, as the harvest takes place and availability increases.
Coffee Market Monthly Recap - Oct 2026
Coffee surged in 1H Oct amid low stocks, before giving back gains later in the month, as prices failed to clear 315c resistance.
See key Oct events in our animation below.
Coffee Origins that Drink their Own Crop
In this article, we explore why Brazil, Ethiopia and Indonesia stand out among coffee origins as countries that are both major producers and consumers of coffee.
coffeetradingacademy.com/pos…
Uganda exported 8m bags of coffee in the 2025/26 season (6.73m Robusta and 1.26m Arabica), per UCDA data. This marks its second-highest export volume on record, 21% above the five-year average, surpassed only by the record 8.2m bags shipped in the previous season (2024/25).
Coffee ECF stocks disclosed at 7.14m bags as of Aug. That's down -16.9% vs a year ago (8.6m) and -35.2% vs the 5-year average (11m). Not a major surprise, given that high carry costs (+15c inversion) still disincentivize stockpiling, but it underscores the tightness.
New Article: Why Does the ICE Arabica Contract Only Accept Washed Coffee?
In this article, we discuss why ICE only accepts washed coffee, and how allowing naturals could undermine the contract.
coffeetradingacademy.com/pos…
Concerns around El Niño seem to be on many people’s minds this year.
If you want to understand what this year’s El Niño could mean for coffee, we recommend our guide thar explores its varied impacts on the different coffee origins around the world.
coffeetradingacademy.com/pos…
Honduras' 25/26 season exports disclosed at 5.62m bags, per ADECAFEH data. This is 19.6% above the previous season (4.7m bags) and 11.5% above the 5Y avg (5.03m bags). Hondo exports were ultimately at their highest level in 5 years.
Colombia’s full 25/26 coffee production was disclosed at 12.65m bags, according to the FNC data. This is virtually in line with average production of the last 5 years, but well below initial expectations in the 13-13.5m bags range and last season's 33Y record crop of 14.9m bags.
Cumulative 25/26 global coffee exports remain the highest of recent years, at 130.8m bags from Oct-Aug per ICO. That’s 8.5% above (almost 10m bags) the 5-year average of 121m bags while a modest 1.3% above last season's 129.4m bags.
Coffee JCA stocks fell to multi-year lows of 1.99m bags in August: that's 12.4% below a year ago and 29% below the 5-year average. This highlights tightness in the nearby, with the inversion still disincentivizing building stocks, while demand seemingly stays firm.
Vietnam exported 29.7m bags of coffee in the 25/26 season, according to Customs data. This is a multi-year record, standing 15.4% above the 5Y avg (25.7m) and 24.7% above the previous season (23.8m). High exports seem consistent w/ large crop & firm demand for Vietnamese coffee.
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Colombia 25/26 coffee production totals 11.4m bags so far (Oct-Aug), after 1.09m bags produced in Aug. With just one month left in the season, final 25/26 production could reach 12.4–12.6m bags, broadly in line with or slightly below the 5Y average.
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ICE Arabica coffee certified stocks have fallen to 217k bags, a fresh 27-year low while down 67% vs a year ago. However, 65k bags of Brazilian coffee have arrived at ICE exchange depots and are currently awaiting grading. This provides a potential offset to the drawdown in certs.
Coffee JCA stocks down 1.2% MoM to multi-year lows of 2.05m bags in July. That's 25.5% below the 5-year average and 7.9% below a year ago. Inversion continues to disincentivize stockpiling and demand seems resilient.
Brazil exported 4.16m bags of coffee in Aug, a significant 26% above the 5-year average of 3.3m and a hefty 31% yearly increase. The volume comprised 2.86m bags of Arabica, 0.95m bags of Robusta, and 0.3m bags of Soluble.
*New Article: Coffee Exports Rising but Destination Stocks Still Low*
In this article, we explore the mechanisms that are keeping stocks low, including consumption and high carry costs. We’ll also see what would need to happen for stocks to build again.
coffeetradingacademy.com/pos…
