Duncan Berg

NBL Round 8: Wednesday 4 November Brisbane probably need all 7 points tonight to have any chance of making the Ignite Cup Final Four. #NBL #NBL27

NBL Net Points thru Round 7: Some numbers that support Newley's statement that SYD and MEL are the top two teams. As we saw against NZB yesterday, MEL stifle their opponent's shooting and when they make some shots themselves they are really good. #NBL #NBL27

As just shown on NBL Overtime, the defensive rebounding for Perth has been awful. #NBL #NBL27

NBL Round 7: Monday 2 November Do we see another upset from the away team? #NBL #NBL27

And the JackJumpers say...

This has been purely calculated against the game clock on the play-by-play feed and I have no idea how accurate it is yet, but it is interesting to read. It passes my rough test, but maybe I need to check it against the Synergy numbers. What stands out to you? #NBL #NBL27

With the lineups now going live, the probability model has moved the game a little further towards SEM.

NBL Round 7: Sunday 1 November #NBL #NBL27

Saturday 31 October: a Halloween NBL double header. #NBL #NBL27

Based on games to 2019 I've built a probability model. So far NBL27 has been hard to predict. It weights points margin over winning percentage, so it weighs SYD highly. For some reason it hasn't liked TAS any season. Add 3 pts to TAS and this is more like 45-55. #NBL #NBL27

Last 5 games for BNE and CNS. CNS has the 2nd best DefRTG in last 5 games, but their rebounding is clearly inferior to BNE. CNS shoot lots of 3s, so it could come down to them making enough. BNE 81.8 FGA (1st) to CNS 72.0 in last 5 games. Both struggle to get to the FT line.

With last night's win, Sydney are close to the Ignite Cup Final Four, but their last game is the final Ignite Cup match on 27 January in Cairns. Last year it took 15.5 pts to make the top four and the Kings will know exactly what they need. #IgniteCup #NBL #NBL27

Gut says that Harrison and Holt need to be on court to trigger better rebounding, but BNE have been able to keep their O boards high with them off the floor. Defense rebounding takes a hit, but they attack the offensive glass successfully whoever is on the floor. #NBL #NBL27

NBL27: Playoff Race thru Wed 28 Oct: The early rounds have shown the importance of chalking up every win possible out of 33 games. And the preparation of teams means no one sneaks under the radar - must bring it every night. This is a great league - just enjoy it!! #NBL #NBL27

Looking at it in several ways, Brisbane are the best rebounding team in NBL27, while Cairns have been the worst. On average, the difference is worth ~13 points. Can BNE keep it up thru injuries? Does JG swing this for Cairns? Does Cairns make their 3P shots? #NBL #NBL27

My annual update showing the association between Round 6 record and final season record. Prediction line now uses 8 seasons of data (NBL19 onwards). ADE, MEL, NZB and SEM all hiding at 4-5. In that time, only TAS has won from worse than 64.3% (about 21-12). #NBL #NBL27

NBL standings thru Round 6. Hard to know who is a "top" team and who is not, but there are still some gaps in the schedule. Remember, H2H is NOT used to split teams. This table is purely for interest. #NBL #NBL27

More charts... #NBL #NBL27

Some updated charts... #NBL #NBL27

Hmmm... 27 O boards