We provide organisations with the information and foresight needed to navigate and thrive the physical risks posed by climate change in the 21st century.
Rotorua, Aotearoa New Zealand
Joined February 2022
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Production forest harvesting is in full swing following the wall-of-wood early 1990s planting. This next rotation is sure to feel the effects of climate change! We specialise in providing climate risk projections for Forestry, let us know how we can help you prepare and thrive.
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Seriously horrific numbers. In dam-breaking events, climate change conceptually shares a larger than normal blame. π§΅1/7
youtube.com/watch?v=sZCT0lN-β¦
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Spectacular sights over the ski fields of Cardrona showing a whole range of atmospheric optical phenomena.
There's more about sundogs, halos and other excellent reasons to look up here blog.metservice.com/atmospheβ¦
Spectacular Ice Halo display @CardronaNZ formed in 'diamond dust' ice crystals today. Common to rare observed:
1. Parhelia (aka, Sun Dog)
2. 22ΒΊ Halo
3. Lower Tangent Arc
4. Parhelic Circle (rare)
5. Infralateral Arc (rare)
6. 44ΒΊ Parhelion (extremely rare)
@MetService
Climate Prescience is the specialist provider of physical climate risk to forestry in New Zealand. Here are some of our credentials in this space:
1. Last year, we completed the first assessment of its kind in New Zealand for Aotearoa's largest plantation forest.
Just two in 10 of our forest growers are taking direct measures to adapt to climate change, this study finds, despite it being one of the biggest risks facing the sector and its billions of dollars of assets
nzherald.co.nz/nz/climate-chβ¦
2. We use the latest available methods and data backed by the government and academia to canvas the entire range of variability and uncertainty.
3. We use scenario analysis that complies with the government's mandatory climate-related disclosures for physical climate risk.
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Interesting study out today looking at whether the Oz bushfires helped trigger a rare βtriple-dipβ La NiΓ±a thatβs meant rain-soaked misery for the North Island. With input from β¦@CubaRaglanGuyβ©, β¦@nathanaelmeliaβ© & β¦@chrisbrandolinoβ© nzherald.co.nz/nz/did-austraβ¦
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
1/π§΅2023 has been so wet, hasn't it!? Has it?
Well, I've done some 'procrastowork' to find out. Come with me on a tiki tour around Aotearoa where i'll review. Stop 1. Rotorua (where I live).
Near or at record levels throughout, summer cancelled; please send Vit D. βοΈ
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
(1/6) Today, weβd like to take a moment to shine a light on Nathanael Melia. @NathanaelMelia is a highly valuable member of the #WhakahuraProgramme who shared important information regarding Cyclone Gabrielle. Here are some of the articles that he was in:
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Devastation in the Esk Valley (Hawke's Bay, NZ) from #CycloneGabrielle ππ¬
More satellite imagery processing reveals:
1) The very obvious path and extent of the floods.
2) The vast number of new agricultural slips (brown patches).
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
On the perils of mega consultancies conducting climate risk analysis rather than climate scientists.
So what did @McKinsey_MGI do wrong to get results inconsistent with the literature and the IPCC? I think the answer lies in this footnote. They calculated wet-bulb temperature by mixing MAXIMUM daily temperatures with AVERAGE daily relative humilities.
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Interviewed RE forestry slash by @NewshubNZ @AlexaCook_ from the #CycloneGabrielle devastation. The solution is simple; ban clear-fell harvesting on these high-risk slopes. A just transition of this landscape is far harder; it will require funding & listening to Ngati Porou.
Enhanced satellite imagery for the cloud-free areas of TairΔwhiti 2023-02-17 11:06:36 NZDT. Generally, the brown colours indicate floods, silt, and slips/landslides. #CycloneGabrielle
ALT Tokomaru Bay Forestry Catchment
ALT Tolaga Bay Flooding
ALT Tokomaru Bay Coastal Slips
Enhanced satellite imagery for the cloud-free areas of TairΔwhiti 2023-02-17 11:06:36 NZDT. Generally, the brown colours indicate floods, silt, and slips/landslides. #CycloneGabrielle
ALT Tokomaru Bay Forestry Catchment
ALT Tolaga Bay Flooding
ALT Tokomaru Bay Coastal Slips
We have been assessing satellite imagery to find damage around the Rotoaira Forest. Although localised to this area, the damage is extensive. Here we slide between before and after #CycloneGabrielle. Windthrow can be identified by the dark green forest areas turning brown.
We ventured into our local forest for a post #CycloneGabrielle damage assessment to get an idea of exposures and species worst affected following the gust front.
Climate Prescience Limited retweeted
Overnight the Central North Island experienced a damaging straight-line wind event (aka gust front); it is seen below as a sharp boundary between the yellow-cyan colours. This event produced wind gusts well over 100km/h, with at least one recording of 150km/h. #CycloneGabrielle
Our Director @nathanaelmelia was on the @ThePanelRNZ this afternoon answering questions about #CycloneGabrielle
The Pre Panel with David Slack and Heather Roy rnz.co.nz/national/programmeβ¦
The Climate Shift Forecaster β Projecting Temperature-Precipitation Space to Ensure a Climate-Resilient Economy.
We have completed the first action in our @MBIEsci Endeavour Fund - Smart Ideas by procuring 28Tb of NASA climate simulations onto our systems.
These global simulations span four emission scenarios for the 21st century over 35 climate models and nine daily mean weather variables, giving @Climate_predict world-leading climate prediction capabilities for the next decade.