Plain English near term outlook for oil. US Drained Reserves As Oil Runs Short youtu.be/AcT0iBiUJzE?si=g4Dv… via @YouTube If correct, higher oil = inflation risk = higher rates = sideways stock market

Updated US budget. Tax rev on the left, gov't spend on the right. Big tax hikes or spend cuts seem unlikely, regardless of Admin or Congress. Growing GDP and/or inflating away the debt takes time. Show me where we cut the deficit by $1T. A $1T cut is about a -3.3% GDP hit.

Here is Treasury’s breakdown of our revenues and expenses. With the coming debt ceiling debate, both parties will use this data. The more you know:

I'm not sure what the SEC could have done about the short squeeze, but I would guess that the window where the outgoing admin transitions control to the new has had something to do with it. Cue new Chair Gensler to make policy cheered by some, lampooned by others.

Equities are pricing in the growing likelihood of one party control in Washington... predictit.org/markets/detail…

Parents got me these in 1980. Holding 'Water ever since! #Sooners

Dear @cnbc: Save everyone time and lead with % returns on the S&P. Your viewers 1) don't care about the Dow, and 2) are not going to change the channel because "down 3.5%" isn't as attention getting as "down 800 points."

Shoeshine tip moment: saw a friend in the grocery store aisle, discussed cloud computing stock prices. A 50 something stranger walks past us, says "I love daytrading - it's the only way to make money these days."

Here's a classic case of corporate capital misallocation. Spend cash or take on debt to buy back stock on the way up (artificially boosting EPS), and then doing nothing when your stock price is down, because you're low on cash or the balance sheet is overextended:

Tesla closes at $2000/share. Market cap $370 billion, $25b revs, $350mm profit last 12 mos., 1 mm cars sold LTM, 50k employees. Founded 2003. Toyota, next biggest auto, mkt cap $190b, $30b revs, $1.5b profit LTM, 10.7mm cars sold, 360k employees. Founded 1937.

United threatening to lay off half its workforce Oct 1 b/c of weak demand - other airlines, other co's are surely feeling the same. Watch for extension to PPP employment requirement, or PPP 2.0.

TX Gov just closed bars and cut restaurants from 75% occupancy back to 50. Given how quickly our hubris got the better of us, hafta think the shutdown coming in TX, FL, CA, AZ will be for longer the 2nd time around.

Market caps of Apple+Facebook+Amazon+Microsoft+Google = Home Depot+Coke+Pepsi+JP Morgan+BofA+United Health+Berkshire+Paypal+Adobe+Procter+Mastercard+Visa+AT&T+Verizon+Exxon+Pfizer+JnJ+Intel+Merck+Disney+WalMart+Netflix+Cisco+Nvidia

acrophobia [ak-ro-FO-bee-uh] noun 1. when a loss-making e-commerce hosting company has $2B in annualized sales but $100B in market cap. 2. Shopify (ticker SHOP).

"The stock market is way ahead of the fundamentals." It always is. Everyone wants a pullback, so they can "get in at lower prices." If everyone is right, that stocks will go right back up, then stocks never pull back as much as they want...

Equity investor buzzphrase drinking game: "due for a pullback," "too expensive," "up 50% in a month," Nasdaq 10,000, PPP running out, Tesla $1000, covid resurgence, higher bond yields...

There are some yawning performance gaps between growth stocks/value, large cap/small, Treasury bonds/junk. My latest, and why now might be a opportune moment for the patient investor: barnettcapm.com/post/long-te…