Chief-Exec.com

The points Macron makes in this interview came up in several conversations I’ve had over the last few months - when the same points are made by different knowledgable people, I listen. The consensus appears to be that the chance of NATO being drawn into conflict in Europe with Russia over the next decade is priced much higher than I imagined - and I imagined it was quite likely. The rise of nationalism in Europe (and the US) makes this more likely. The historic lack of investment in R&D and defence across our continent makes this more likely. From the U.K. perspective, pretty much everyone agrees (behind the scenes for the moment) that Brexit has made these problems more difficult to address. As Blair said in the recently recirculating interview from 2019, the politicians who advocated it were naive and ignorant and did not understand how power is deployed on the international stage. What can be done? Again, I was surprised by the unanimity of the views from people with otherwise different political positions. We have to plan for a more isolationist US whose focus may shift away from Europe, even as we hope and work to avert this possibility. The U.K. therefore needs to reengage with Europe - by which I mean get itself firmly on the path to EU membership - as quickly as possible and before Macron leaves office. That depends primarily on the Conservative Party accepting the principle in opposition. The ball is in their court. This will (a) demonstrate that attempts to destabilise our continent politically are failing and (b) boost our economies so we can invest more in R&D and defence. Obviously, as you’ll see in the replies below, some people will need a lot of persuading. But the alternative is potentially existential, and so the case will have to be made. What we need in the U.K. is for a politician to emerge who has the rhetorical ability, courage and intellectual firepower to make the case to a public still shell shocked by the experience of 2016 - and who has the diplomatic skill to convince Europe that we are serious.