The 53.5M $SOL position of Alameda/FTX has been a missing puzzle in my investment thesis and a headache since their meltdown. I've created a model as my basis for further interpretation in the last days. tl;dr / We've been facing one of the biggest VC wash-outs and token redistributions that ever happened in crypto. The FTX bankruptcy resulted in a negative bias, but the token redistribution continues. Solana's future might be even brighter than we currently think. (NFA) My current unterstanding and interpretations: 1) most of the $SOL is locked with a linear monthly unlock resulting in a rather continuous market impact than a sudden market impact source: solana.com/news/solana-facts… 2) the overall effect is more a dilution / addon-inflation. I have no information about whether VC tokens have been included in the current Solana tokenomics or not. I take them as additional dilution in my model. 3) But why do we fear huge sell pressure by those unlocks? Why this negative bias? In fact, nothing really changed. The situation became even better. Before the FTX/Alameda meltdown Solana had a token concentration problem regarding VCs. A single entity like SBF would have been dumping on us 100% anyway at any time. We definitely know that now. This concentrated token ownership is likely getting fractionalized now. There's been a big VC wash-out last year in addition. The token distribution and the ecosystem are healing. A tough but also healthy reset. 3) Kroll is clearly focused on liquidating any tokens asap to reduce risk and volatility of their secured assets (source: debtors' motion below). Additionally this may allow them to earn yield. We don't need to fear that the bankruptcy case is using $SOL as a moonbag, lol. source: restructuring.ra.kroll.com/F… 4) Tokens will be sold OTC only. Token locks remain. 5) The 7.5M $SOL bag that unlocks as a whole in 2025 could add sell pressure and risk to the 7.67M $SOL yearly unlocks that still happen from 2025 til January 2028. To prevent that, Kroll could add a vesting for this 7.5M $SOL OTC deals to optimize the situation for other OTC deals. Would be in their best interest to achieve the best possible OTC deals overall, especially for the remaining part of the 46M $SOL (roughly 20M). As another option a widespread OTC sale could also help reducing the sale pressure. 6) the Robin Hood case showed us how the market reacts to a possible forced liquidation (3M $SOL) with a heterogenous, widespread distribution. It was a nothing burger in the end with short term volatility. The more widespread the distribution via OTC deals the better I assume. 7) the size and complexity of the SOL position could be the reason why VCs aren't able to add any bid to SOL positions in the bankruptcy case yet but other tokens. 8) so, we have a continuous market impact that adds inflation. I dived into Solana tokenomics and calculated a model (see first image). The idea is to take these linear token unlocks and think of them as additional token dilution. This model illustrates corrected inflation rates in comparison to the official token inflation schedule. We have a peak add-on inflation of around 2,2% in 2024 that won't even result in the highest yoy ecosystem inflation rate. And that's it. As we likely see a recovery in the next two years from the 2022 bottom, this inflation add-on could become irrelevant. The only requirement I see is that OTC deals should be as widely distributed as possible to prevent another ownership concentration. Might be interesting to compare inflation schedules of other chains here as well. 9) Staking yield is becoming less attractive over time, but the price reset happened in an early lifetime phase (Solana is 3 years old). In the current market cycle longterm bets are placed and the upside potential is way bigger than the downside risk. It's revaluation season in crypto and staking-time! Combined with the price reset I'm sure this will result in a more sustainable holder structure which even reduces sell pressure of the native ecosystem inflation for a good amount of time. The Solana ecosystem is stronger and more innovative than ever. Unique products will be created on Solana bc of its unique and highly differentiating blockchain architecture. And this will add value to the whole crypto industry. We'll be fine imo. (not financial advice)