Chess fan, spreadsheet fan, stats fan. https://xitter.cf/t.co/L1SPEuiLvE author: https://xitter.cf/t.co/yikRvcymxQ
Eugene, OR
Joined February 2015
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In November 2024, Erdogmus played the European Individual Championship and lost 5 rating points. So his rating on that December list dropped from 2604 to 2599.
22 months later, he has not lost rating in ANY other tournament. Not once. Every rating since is equal or better.
Yes, I am excluding the two months where he had two game rated from Schachbundesliga and lost rating points, and not calling those distinct "events". Maybe that's slight cherry picking for the point.
A graph I can't include as a supplement in a reddit comment so I'm posting it here without context (although it's pretty self explanatory and may be of interest even if you're not on the thread)
This month's Prodigy Watch update is live: chess.com/article/view/chess…
Welcome Charvi Anilkumar not only to the top 5 of the girls list but also to the open top-100 list! (And she's already gained 46 more live rating points on top of the published rating I use here)
Over a decade ago I wrote a ton about Wei Yi in the early days of my then-new chess stats blog and early iterations of Prodigy Watch. It's incredibly exciting that I'll finally get to see him in a Candidates tournament!
While I'm a fan of many Candidates, I'll root most for him.
Last night I set my five year old up with his first lichess account (so he wouldn't try to do MY chess puzzles and tank my rating). Today he got 12/15 puzzles right, mostly mates in one, and coined the fantastic term "immedimate" that definitely needs to catch on!
At this point we all know the stakes. Three spots for four players. It'll be decided over the board, not on a spreadsheet, but just for fun[1] here's my model's take on the World Cup Final Four!
[1]Citation needed
Here is my model's take on the last eight remaining players at the World Cup. Notable is how much of the total winning chance is in the 2v7 quadrant; whoever wins between Wei Yi and Arjun Erigaisi will be a big favorite in the next two rounds.
I highly recommend being awful at chess, because it lets you play against opponents who are also terrible at the game! And thus fun bullet battles where your opponent hangs a knight, you respond by giving back your queen, but it's okay because they'll blunder mate can be a thing!
Here are the odds of reaching all subsequent rounds for all remaining players at the World Cup. Each group will produce one semifinalist; top two groups will produce one finalist while the bottom two groups will produce the other.
Here are the 18 players with at least a chance of winning the World Cup after the classical portion of rd3 (tiebreaks pending). This post is not intended as a jinx.
To make the brackets clearer, here are two separate groups of players who will each collectively compete against just each other for one spot in the finals (and two spots in the semis, one from the top group, one from the bottom group):
With all the upsets so far, some quadrants of the bracket are much more affected than others. Here is a list sorted by who has GAINED the most in their Candidates hopes, i.e. the biggest beneficiaries of the upsets so far (as of the end of rd3 classical play, tiebreaks pending)
Well, the chances of Candidates chaos at the World Cup have dropped significantly with Gukesh and Giri losing.
Yes, Bluebaum could still get top three, but that just sends the #4 finisher to the Candidates.
Pragg top 3 could still make the Circuit interesting though!
The Rd2 upsets were indeed more than expected, if you were curious. Here's my model's projections for how many top-10 and top-25 seeds would be left alive after each round, in each update. On average, one top-ten player going down was most likely and of course we lost two.
