@CheapTalkBlog

This is the blog. Follow @jeffely for tweets like Pros and cons of webbed feet. Pro: distinct advantage at swim meets. Con: This Little Piggy loses all meaning.

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Joined October 2009
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“We are all just prisoners here of our own device” used to be a very clever and subtle turn of phrase using an interesting form of the verb. Now it’s a cliche use of the noun.
That Rizzo Bloop cheaptalk.org/2017/10/09/tha…

That Rizzo Bloop

In the bottom of the 8th inning of tonight’s game 3 of the NLDS, Anthony Rizzo blooped a single to shallow left and Leonys Martin scored what proved to be the winning run.  The noteworthy thi…

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The Skinny cheaptalk.org/2017/07/27/the…

The Skinny

You are in a negotiation and you are offered X. You really want both X and Y but you have just been given the option to take X now and then continue negotiating for Y. In this story you are the Hou…

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The Marathon Game cheaptalk.org/2017/07/22/the…

The Marathon Game

A one player extensive-form game with perfect information.  The player’s name is Zeno. The game has an infinite horizon.  For every non-negative integer N there is a node at which Zeno choose…

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How Junior Got Played cheaptalk.org/2017/07/11/how…

How Junior Got Played

On Saturday The New York Times published the story that Donald Trump Jr together with Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner met in Trump Tower with a Russian Lawyer.  That was basically the entire conten…

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Model Up cheaptalk.org/2017/06/11/mod…

Model Up

Everyone who has armchair-theorized why movie theaters don’t sell assigned seats in advance is now obligated to explain why this has changed and how that’s consistent with their model. …

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Thoughts Left Lying Around cheaptalk.org/2017/06/09/tho…

Thoughts Left Lying Around

One reason time seems to go faster when you are older. “Has it already been a year?” You have so many more things going on and only a few of them can reside in working memory. When some…

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Comey and Other Skeletons cheaptalk.org/2017/06/08/com…

Comey and Other Skeletons

The anticlimax that is/will be the Comey testimony proves something I have always thought about skeletons in the closet. They should be released early when not everyone is paying attention. The pre…

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The Long Game cheaptalk.org/2017/05/17/the…

The Long Game

Watch for the key leading indicator of impending Presidential downfall:  the Vice President going silent.  We will reach a point where the VP’s objective switches from defending the President…

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Health Insurance And Flood Insurance cheaptalk.org/2017/05/09/hea…

Health Insurance And Flood Insurance

This paper by Finkelstein, Hendren, and Shepard finds that the uninsured have such a low willingness to pay for health insurance that they wouldn’t even cover the costs they impose on insurer…

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Strategic Ambiguity cheaptalk.org/2017/04/28/str…

Strategic Ambiguity

Yesterday just before the start of a seminar I went to the thermostat to try to warm up the room.  The speaker saw me fiddling with it and nodded with approval.  I said nothing, turned up the heat …

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Northwestern wins despite brilliant last-minute gambit by Vanderbilt’s Matthew Fisher-Davis cheaptalk.org/2017/03/17/nor…

Northwestern wins despite brilliant last-minute gambit by Vanderbilt’s Matthew Fisher-Davis

There was 20 seconds left, Vanderbilt had just scored a layup to go ahead by 1 and Northwestern’s Bryant Mcintosh was racing to midcourt to set-up a final chance to regain the lead and win th…

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Forecaster Horse Race cheaptalk.org/2016/11/05/for…
Thoughts Left Lying Around About Election Forecasts cheaptalk.org/2016/07/21/tho…

Thoughts Left Lying Around About Election Forecasts

Suppose one forecaster says the probability Trump wins is q and the other says the probability is p>q.  If Trump in fact wins, who was “right?” Suppose one forecaster says the probab…

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Why you don’t see ads for American Idol on ABC cheaptalk.org/2016/04/07/why…

Why you don’t see ads for American Idol on ABC

What I wrote yesterday: When Fox broadcasts the Super Bowl they advertise for their shows, like American Idol. But those years in which, say, ABC has the Super Bowl you will never see an ad for Ame…

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I think I finally figured it out cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/i-t…

I think I finally figured it out

When Fox broadcasts the Super Bowl they advertise for their shows, like American Idol. But those years in which, say, ABC has the Super Bowl you will never see an ad for American Idol during the Su…

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What the Contested Convention Odds Tell Us cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/wha…

What the Contested Convention Odds Tell Us

Right now at Primary.guide, you can read the current betting market odds for a “contested convention” and a “brokered convention.”  The definitions are as follows.  A contes…

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The End of Asymmetric Information? wp.me/pqX2p-3zk

The End of Asymmetric Information?

Cato Unbound is running a discussion with this topic.  Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen kicked things off by suggesting that technological advances are ending asymmetric information as an important fe…

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Regression Discontinuity in Chicago Restaurant Choices wp.me/pqX2p-3yv
A Problem With Increased Surveillance wp.me/pqX2p-3ys
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