Reaching financial freedom … one chart at a time 📈🌱 NFA
California, USA
Joined July 2025
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Microsoft 365 services down worldwide yesterday.
An aviation ground stop nationwide today.
Interesting times. Have to wonder if these massive disruptions harbor any connection to AI advancement. Whether these are examples of the coordinated agentic attacks we’ve been warned of.
Server setup moving along smoothly.
Will report back in a few days with further details and the finished product.
This post went mainstream. Tens of thousands of likes. Millions of eyes. I don’t love that. The conspiracy theorist in me sees it as a psy-op. Bot-driven engagement on an unknown account to goad the masses.
For me, it signals as a sign of pain to come. Similar to how the street whipped Leopold, they’ll easily do the same to retail overplaying their hand on investing in $NVDA during relief.
For now, the stock technically reads positive. It is aching for a snapback or countertrend trade off critical support of 2024 highs so congrats if you entered off low $150s, but there is far greater risk and uncertainty involved now. A falling knife is a falling knife. It can easily fail in finding upside due to consolidation above acting as resistance.
I have eyes on $120-$130s as Base Case at this time. It may not happen quickly. It could take its sweet time. Other opportunities will see greater liquidity and upside. It’s only logical.
Uncertainty breeds poor price action over a longer timeframe. $NVDA found relief at the level I’d expected it to this morning, but this is far from over.
With Jensen leaving, it leaves $NVDA in a clouded environment moving forward. It will need a player such as Ian Buck to take the reins and steer the company in the right direction technologically. However, I doubt the company will ever find a frontman as talented as Huang ever again. An incredible salesman and advocate, a man who was critical to shaping the AI revolution.
As mentioned yesterday, direct competitors such as $AMD and those in the $TPU ecosystem, namely $GOOG $AVGO, will eat up any demand lost by $NVDA over the coming years. Of course, this may not happen. Perhaps the company feels no impact from this change in leadership, but it is difficult to envision that reality at this time.
My largest investment at this time is insulated in all this chaos. $CLS is thriving today, up +6% at the time of this post. If the AI trade spills over for another leg down, it will surely bleed with it, but there is an air of comfort surrounding it. Below is a chart depicting the company’s deep ties to the TPU ecosystem, direct competitors of $NVDA, and massive bets on inference such as OpenAI’s Jalapeño chip. It plays a massive role in everything, acting as a backbone for the entire ecosystem through diversification of its portfolio.
Yes. It would suffer in the event that $NVDA does not shine as bright as it originally would have under Huang in the coming years, but the key is that it has a safety net. That is why it is rising today alongside $GOOG $AVGO $AMD.
$AVGO $AMD are loving this news. I'd assume the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO would benefit from this development as well.
Bodes well for the TPU ecosystem and direct competitors. Although long-term, it is obvious that $NVDA will thrive with or without Huang.
$NVDA - NVIDIA BOARD REPORTEDLY PREPARING TO OUST CEO JENSEN HUANG
Nvidia is reportedly preparing to remove founder and CEO Jensen Huang following revelations of two extramarital affairs, including one involving a suspected Chinese intelligence operative.
The board could meet as soon as today to decide Huang's future, according to people familiar with the matter.
No final decision or official announcement has been confirmed.
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How Jensen Huang was moving behind the scenes...
His role as CEO may legitimately be coming to end. A monstrous buying opportunity is loading up regardless of that fact. Glad I closed those EOW calls early.
JUST IN : NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG HAD ANOTHER AFFAIR WITH AN NVIDIA EMPLOYEE PER NEW YORK TIMES
HUANG'S ALLEGED RELATIONSHIP WAS WITH NVIDIA HEALTH CARE VP KIMBERLY POWELL
JENSEN HUANG HUNG UP THE CALL ON NYT AFTER THEY ASKED HIM ABOUT IT ; NVIDIA HAS DECLINED COMMENT
$NVDA
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Dual-FTD Confirmation Signals are preferred. Below is data regarding Forward Returns when this occurs for $SPX $IXIC.
Again, the window for both to trigger is still open for a few days, but in the event that the FTD is only contained to $IXIC, the signal is more susceptible to amounting to a countertrend preceding more pain.
Even then, it can still end up that way with a Dual-FTD trigger. Refer to 2018, 2022, and 2025 cases. Even August 2026. There is no guarantee for success here in the face of Bear Market price action. We are simply hoping that this turns out the way August 2024 and April 2026 did. That is why it is important to stay on our toes and watch for breakouts above Key Levels.
Follow-Through Day Confirmation 🟢🟡
$IXIC $QQQ ✅
$SPX ❌
Achieved for the NASDAQ on the 1st day the window opened, there is greater promise moving forward of a sustained uptrend towards ATHs for indices now. The failure of this signal would obviously be either heavily distributive price action and a fall towards lower lows, but the grass is green til further notice.
Below are thoughts from Grok on when the signal fires for only a single index. The window is still open for $SPX to confirm a FTD over the next few days if it wants to.
"There is no widely published, rigorous quantitative study that specifically isolates forward returns for the case where the Nasdaq Composite ($IXIC) produces a FTD while the S&P 500 ($SPX) does not.
Under the William O’Neil (IBD) framework, a valid FTD on EITHER the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 is sufficient to confirm a potential new uptrend. Thus, one index is enough. The overall market status is driven by the stronger index. The Nasdaq frequently generates the FTD first in growth-led cycles.
When BOTH indices produce FTDs within a few sessions of each other, the signal is generally viewed as higher quality (broader institutional participation).
Roughly 25% of FTDs fail. Strongest FTDs historically occur on Days 4–7 of a rally attempt. Success is judged less by the index’s immediate return and more by subsequent progress, limited distribution days in the first 1–2 weeks, and breakouts in leading stocks.
An $IXIC only FTD is actionable under the methodology and has historically worked in growth-led environments, but dual-index confirmation is preferred and single-index signals warrant smaller initial exposure until broader participation appears."
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Follow-Through Day Confirmation 🟢🟡
$IXIC $QQQ ✅
$SPX ❌
Achieved for the NASDAQ on the 1st day the window opened, there is greater promise moving forward of a sustained uptrend towards ATHs for indices now. The failure of this signal would obviously be either heavily distributive price action and a fall towards lower lows, but the grass is green til further notice.
Below are thoughts from Grok on when the signal fires for only a single index. The window is still open for $SPX to confirm a FTD over the next few days if it wants to.
"There is no widely published, rigorous quantitative study that specifically isolates forward returns for the case where the Nasdaq Composite ($IXIC) produces a FTD while the S&P 500 ($SPX) does not.
Under the William O’Neil (IBD) framework, a valid FTD on EITHER the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 is sufficient to confirm a potential new uptrend. Thus, one index is enough. The overall market status is driven by the stronger index. The Nasdaq frequently generates the FTD first in growth-led cycles.
When BOTH indices produce FTDs within a few sessions of each other, the signal is generally viewed as higher quality (broader institutional participation).
Roughly 25% of FTDs fail. Strongest FTDs historically occur on Days 4–7 of a rally attempt. Success is judged less by the index’s immediate return and more by subsequent progress, limited distribution days in the first 1–2 weeks, and breakouts in leading stocks.
An $IXIC only FTD is actionable under the methodology and has historically worked in growth-led environments, but dual-index confirmation is preferred and single-index signals warrant smaller initial exposure until broader participation appears."
Countertrend Rally Returns
$BE ➯ +33%
$NBIS ➯ +36%
$COHR ➯ +46%
$CRDO ➯ +26%
$GLW ➯ +18%
$CLS ➯ +22%
$MRVL ➯ +23%
$MU ➯ +22%
Thus far, my call to begin deploying cash off capitulation experienced last week is paying off. I had hoped that this week would've wrought more pain for a more comfortable Local Low, but beggars cannot be choosers. At least I am in with Key Levels marked and stops in place.
If both $SPX and $IXIC maintain current upside, as long as Volume today exceeds that of yesterday, then today will mark a successful Follow-Through Day on both indices. A massive development in the favor of Bulls as it may signal that this relief could turn into recovery. Keep your eyes peeled.
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Wish I had trusted my gut more and taken a much larger position in these near-dated $NVDA calls expiring EOW.
Nevertheless, it’s been smooth sailing for the contracts I did pick up. I’ll gladly take a +140% return in less than 24 hours any day.
Personally locked in profits on these calls here to avoid the risk of an intraday fade erasing these gains.
I am still holding my $NVDA calls expiring on 11/20. It is a small position as well. The additional time to expiration provides greater flexibility to weather premium decay throughout the entire length of a potential countertrend rally.
$NVDA
As this rapid corrective move takes place for Nvidia, it's wise to reflect on the current state of the stock and historical precedence. At this time, it has 3 unfilled gaps above, validating the Bullish Sanku Pattern.
With the stock stretched to an extremity, now reaching oversold conditions on the Bi-Daily chart with the entire candle trading below the Lower Bollinger Band, a snapback rally has great odds. DCA'ing long-term or taking entries here for a temporary trade is enticing.
The stock may find itself retrace towards $130-$150s over longer timeframes in the future, but in this moment, the slingshot is ready and just needs to be fired. Whether that is now or later, it doesn't matter. All I know is that it's coming soon.
Even the Weekly candle has yet to tap the Lower Bollinger. That is insane for the most critical technology company in the entire World. The backbone of AI. If we shift towards the Tri-Daily timeframe, we can see that it has now closed 3 candles consecutively below the Lower Bollinger, tapping the 3D 200MA as support today. I can only find 1 historical case of this 3x consecutive close on this timeframe in the past 2 decades for $NVDA. It occurred in 2018 - the analog for the ongoing macro correction! Crazy.
After it happened in 2018, the stock experienced a 25% countertrend rally off lows before finding lower lows afterwards. Based on evidence shared, I assume we will see the same thing here. So, at this time, I am looking for a 20-25% countertrend rally that attempts to close all 3 gaps to the upside before rolling over to retrace to $130-$150s to complete the corrective move. Of course, it can always have a V-Shaped recovery too, but it has lower odds right now.
The only thing that can throw a wrench into this plan is unexpected, shocking news that is a follow-up to the investigation taking place related to the honeypot scandal. Earnings is next week and so is the congressional hearing. Perhaps they won't let this run till then. Bear that in mind.
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I love having a small, intimate community. Sincerely do not want my account to explode in popularity. It can work against you in mysterious ways.
Never made a dollar off my analysis. Don’t plan on that changing anytime soon.
I would love to open up another source for my work though. A real-time feed and repository. Paranoid of dedicating my reach to a single platform and find I have far more to offer as an analyst in years to come.
Working on opening a server this weekend through Discord. It’s the easiest in terms of efficiency, accessibility, and onboarding. I understand the decision to choose this platform will not please all, but it’s time to commit to one. The server will be simple and straightforward, expanding over time for other uses. I may throw on a 1 Cent paywall to filter out bots.
Note that this is not a paid service nor am I offering financial advice. I am doing this for the love of the game.
Cannot remember the last time I felt emotion tied to the market. Neither euphoria nor pain.
When you welcome every success and every mistake as an opportunity to improve, in time your analysis becomes undeniable.
Everything loses its power over you in the realm of objectivity.
$NVDA
As this rapid corrective move takes place for Nvidia, it's wise to reflect on the current state of the stock and historical precedence. At this time, it has 3 unfilled gaps above, validating the Bullish Sanku Pattern.
With the stock stretched to an extremity, now reaching oversold conditions on the Bi-Daily chart with the entire candle trading below the Lower Bollinger Band, a snapback rally has great odds. DCA'ing long-term or taking entries here for a temporary trade is enticing.
The stock may find itself retrace towards $130-$150s over longer timeframes in the future, but in this moment, the slingshot is ready and just needs to be fired. Whether that is now or later, it doesn't matter. All I know is that it's coming soon.
Even the Weekly candle has yet to tap the Lower Bollinger. That is insane for the most critical technology company in the entire World. The backbone of AI. If we shift towards the Tri-Daily timeframe, we can see that it has now closed 3 candles consecutively below the Lower Bollinger, tapping the 3D 200MA as support today. I can only find 1 historical case of this 3x consecutive close on this timeframe in the past 2 decades for $NVDA. It occurred in 2018 - the analog for the ongoing macro correction! Crazy.
After it happened in 2018, the stock experienced a 25% countertrend rally off lows before finding lower lows afterwards. Based on evidence shared, I assume we will see the same thing here. So, at this time, I am looking for a 20-25% countertrend rally that attempts to close all 3 gaps to the upside before rolling over to retrace to $130-$150s to complete the corrective move. Of course, it can always have a V-Shaped recovery too, but it has lower odds right now.
The only thing that can throw a wrench into this plan is unexpected, shocking news that is a follow-up to the investigation taking place related to the honeypot scandal. Earnings is next week and so is the congressional hearing. Perhaps they won't let this run till then. Bear that in mind.
$NVDA is gearing up for an obvious countertrend rally, at the very least.
This is the most stretched it has been on its Multi-Daily timeframes since 2018. It has reached a point that typically precedes relief. Do note that it is currently a Falling Knife, but fundamentals don’t align with deterioration observed in 2018.
Relief could start as early as tomorrow, but perhaps MMs wait to push the gas till earnings next week.
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Countertrend Rally or Recovery?
It does not matter. When your work indicates relief is imminent, you take the shot. The past couple days have been kind.
Set your stops and points of invalidation then patiently await the resolution.
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Very interesting price action ahead of the inflation report tomorrow. I expect the report to run hot - the appropriate changes have not been made to ease inflationary pressures.
A hike in December is Base Case anyways. Currently, odds sit at 85%. However, this report and reports to come will be extremely important in regard to rate hikes in 2027. Many analysts are calling for a Bear Market similar to 2022. I guess people do not remember that we ran at 9% inflation then with a massive, rapid onslaught of hikes that caused the cratering of equities. The current situation right now is nowhere near as bad. Able to be fixed with the right shifts in policy, but kicking the can down the road may lead to disaster.
Despite major upside, today cannot be marked as a Follow-Through Day on indices. Those can only begin to count on Day 4 onwards of a recovery attempt.
$VIX is currently straddling the Key Level of 19.85 on my chart. Breaking below it would be a step in the right direction, but my bias leans bearish at this time. The Volatility Index ideally breaks below 17 with confirmation to switch the market’s gears with confidence.
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Rather than stretching markets even lower early into the week to enforce a durable low as soon as possible, it seems the market may want to delay that action.
It’s clear as to why - I discussed it last week. $VIX and $MTUM were both stretched on the Bi-Daily and Weekly charts already, allowing for a snapback in each for now. At least temporarily. Momentum may now start to experience relative strength moving forward if the correction is prolonged. The technicals support the idea. At the same time, do not be surprised if it has another dramatic leg lower. We are nowhere near out of the woods.
It’s worth noting that baskets can bottom out early, before major market lows. This is why I started to increase my exposure dramatically last week in positions such as $CLS $BE $NBIS $MU $GLW $COHR $CRDO $MRVL. All killing it today. However, I am not delusional. As warned above, this can easily be a Bear Market rally or simply relief before one last leg lower. Patience will be key here.
We are now approaching a key test here as the $VIX backtests its Log Channel parabolic breakout. This comes at the Weekly EMAs act as resistance on $SPX $SPY above. I am completely open and lean towards this being a pause before more pain later this week or the next. If wrong, I am already exposed so oh well.
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History will remember this as the Honeypot Huang Low.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang sends letter to employees after being targeted by female Chinese spy:
"I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did."
"I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence."
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Ch🅰️rtradamus 🔋 retweeted
$QQQ was down for a 4th week in a row. The 4 week RSI is now at 11.30. This is the 5th most oversold level since 2020. The other cases:
March 2020 - 10.34
May 2022 - 8.55
April 2025 - 5.43
March 2026 - 6.89
Another down week next week would potentially lead to another major low.
