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$MU
Stock prices are forward looking, especially in growth names. The price proved in these impressive earnings, and now price has stalled and has entered a correction
We are looking to see how price reacts at the weekly 50WMA, and if that fails we will be looking for price to test the 0.5 fib level and the 50SMA
$DRAM sits in the middle of the AI trade. As high beta names have fallen during this multiple compression environment we are currently in, this one is getting more attractive for an entry
Futures opened green, however price action is still below our “P” shaped volume profile.
We are not switching all the sudden because futures opened green. Price has to prove to us, and buyers need to show strength and defeat all the bearish indicators and evidence we are seeing on the charts.
We are still holding firm on our short-term target until price proves otherwise
$SPY
$SPY
Where are we headed in the short-term?
We expect more downside, and at least testing the daily 200WMA/0.236 fib level on the futures chart
Starting with the market internals, you'll notice that the $ADD and $SPY price action are more than less in unison as price has been in a drawdown. Additionally, sellers have built strong relative strength the last couple of trading sessions.
Going to the daily futures chart ($ES_F), you'll notice that price volume is in an upper case "P" shape and the upper limits of that shape seem to be acting as a strong level of resistance. This, in combination with bearish divergence on the daily RSI and strong volume on red days, points in the direction that sellers will see follow thru
Our first target will be the daily 200WMA which aligns with the 0.236 fib level.
$SPY
Where are we headed in the short-term?
We expect more downside, and at least testing the daily 200WMA/0.236 fib level on the futures chart
Starting with the market internals, you'll notice that the $ADD and $SPY price action are more than less in unison as price has been in a drawdown. Additionally, sellers have built strong relative strength the last couple of trading sessions.
Going to the daily futures chart ($ES_F), you'll notice that price volume is in an upper case "P" shape and the upper limits of that shape seem to be acting as a strong level of resistance. This, in combination with bearish divergence on the daily RSI and strong volume on red days, points in the direction that sellers will see follow thru
Our first target will be the daily 200WMA which aligns with the 0.236 fib level.
$QQQ
Below is a visual representation of the %of stocks in the NASDAQ that are trading above their 200MA. There is a clearly a trend down and this goes in line with what we have talked about
The current state of the market has a lot of stocks in a severe drawdown. The market is currently very concentrated and is being help by the hyperscalers. However, the last couple of days has shown that capital may be rotating out of those names and into other investments, such as bonds and value stocks.
In fact, if you look at the % of stocks above their 200MA for the DOW, things look a lot healthier.
This is a silver lining. Ideally, as tech stocks get sold off, money is staying in the market just being diverted to other areas.
So far, energy has been one of your best hedges.
$VDE has been putting in new all-time highs
Crude oil is pushing $100 again as equities continue to slide
Clearly the markets are wary of inflation which is being driven mostly by high energy prices. The hot CPI and PPI prints validated this concern and with no real end in site with the US engagement with Iran, investors are looking to off load high beta, high capex, high debt positions and rotate them into safe havens.
We have seen dividend stocks do well the last couple of days, and we even saw a big drop in yields as investors bid up bonds prices. $TLT was able to get back above $80.
A ton of high beta names are in SERIOUS drawdowns. Names being down over 50% is not uncommon in these current market conditions. Most of the market is being held up by the hyperscalers and their tremendous earnings. The question is, is this sustainable. For most of 2026 the answer was yes. So much so, that the bull market spread to mid and small caps. But now money is retreating to strong balance sheets and total market share.
This earnings season is VERY important. The concentration that is present in the market is now overweight hyperscalers earnings in respects to health and sentiment of the stock market. Any miss, or downgrade in guidance, is likely to trigger more selling.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM $TLT
If you see yields continuing to fall as a result from investors fleeing to safety in bonds, $TLT is a play worth considering.
This is the un-broadening we talked about when we showed the Advanced/Decline line
The story at the beginning of the year was broadening in the market. $VTV and small caps were keeping up with growth and large cap.
Now, we are back in a highly concentrated market. With earnings season among us, the hyperscalers earnings will be quite impactful for how things will unfold moving forward
The swings we saw in the market today were wild
From negative double digits to positive for some names
Clearly the market reacts from the inflation fears. However, it seems like the growth story surrounding AI is going to continue to carry the market until conditions get worse
Additionally, the hot prints are largely due to the high energy prices. And one theory could be that investors understand that could come down by simply ending the war in Iran.
As always, price action leads the way. The markets, as of today, seem to be telling us that the AI trade is still alive and resilient.
$CIFR is back below $10
Data centers are feeling the pain
$SPY
First target to watch for is the daily 200WMA. Aligns well with the 0.236 fib level
Daily RSI bearish divergence was primed and hot CPI and PPI prints was the catalyst.
To be clear, yes things are not looking pretty rough with the hot CPI and PPI prints. Especially since the geopolitical uncertainty in Iran is keeping things difficult to price in. Military action has been floated around, and the picture remains murky.
However, earnings have been able to keep the market afloat. We are still waiting to see how big tech has done, and if there is any bleed over from high energy prices into margins and FCF.
If big tech, and other names, can deliver on earnings and guidance, who is to say the market will not remain extremely resilient. That, or a very dramatic shift in the rhetoric surrounding the War in Iran.
....and lost it.
High beta names will be volatile. Expecting some more downside before sunny skies.
The 200SMA sits around the 0.786 fib level, which would put the stock under $20.
Wild swings.
$IREN
Weight these types of names accordingly
Yields continue to fall as bond prices get bid up
Investors clearly seem to be rotating out of high beta and into risk-free assets
$TLT up nearly 2% and back above $80
$SPCX
High beta names are selling off in current market conditions
There will be opportunities all around the market











