Prop Firm Simulator / Researcher. Using Zenom's AI Trading Infrastructure to automate everything. Addicted to pretty charts, sharing my growth and journey!
Joined November 2024
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It is very hard to figure out what is actually the best futures-prop firm offer.
Cheapest 50K challenge? Less strict rules
A different model entirely?
It does not help that there are 20+ popular firms and each firm having 2-5 different type of challenges, each having their own account sizes aswell.
That is about 350+ challenges to go through to find the one that fits you best.
We took a different approach.
Can you know exactly what the Return on Investment is for a consistently profitable trader on these firms?
That's why we needed a simulation.
It will test each challenge 15000 times using a randomised price feed and a trader profile.
I ranked 78 challenges and the data is all available for free.
The site currently offers 5 futures-firms with more to come soon.
prop-muse.vercel.app/
No wonder Larry Williams made so much using seasonality.
Today removed all overnight gaps to make seasonal effect more realistic.
It decreased results from the one including gaps.
But the results are still insane.
Check my previous posts for exact logic
Ill be updating this over and over until we reach max realism possible on Tradingview, keep u posted.
You exist because your ancestors knew the seasons.
So why not just use the seasons to grow your money every year.
The numbers might be high but that's what compounding does.
This strategy never stops trading for over 50 years all using simple seasonality
My previous post explained the exact strategy which I posted in the private discord.
Here is a big adjustment for realism.
The strategy now no longer rebalances on almost every bar. It uses a simple state switch of go 100% long, flat, 100% short now.
Staying in the trade for 10 to 20 days on average
Results on hogs gone from 9753672.54% down to 4478384.70% just from much less rebalancing alone.
Still incredibly juicy and returns on the other pairs speak for itself.
No trading costs used cause it's daily chart I guesse
You exist because your ancestors knew the seasons.
So why not just use the seasons to grow your money every year.
The numbers might be high but that's what compounding does.
This strategy never stops trading for over 50 years all using simple seasonality
My previous post explained the exact strategy which I posted in the private discord.
Here is a big adjustment for realism.
The strategy now no longer rebalances on almost every bar. It uses a simple state switch of go 100% long, flat, 100% short now.
Staying in the trade for 10 to 20 days on average
Results on hogs gone from 9753672.54% down to 4478384.70% just from much less rebalancing alone.
Still incredibly juicy and returns on the other pairs speak for itself.
No trading costs used cause it's daily chart I guesse
Seasonality can be exploited easily in grain and meat markets.
Matter of fact might be the only non-lagging indicator
9753672.54% return only -13.45% drawdown
Larry Williams also trades a lot of seasonality
50 years of trading 3666 trades
You heard that right
Most Trading Seasonality research sucks
Taking 50 years of price data to decide January is the best month to purchase an asset
There is a flaw in that approach
Backtesting that assumes we knew 50 years ago Januari is best month to buy.
I changed that building the seasonality oscillator.
The strategy rolls the data over time, only taking data it knows at the time of decision making for its trading.
Changed it from a boring equity for that month curve into an actionable oscillator.
Posted full strategy + agent md files inside zenom private discord.
Ill explain the logic below
This is how the trades are looking. Not a ton of frequency.
My biggest fear is that most of the edge is in the contract rollovers and the seasonal edge is just these gaps.
Will need to code up an indicator that avoids these gaps.
That's coming soon, slowly moving from idea implementation.
Into high realism, so far the core concept is working great.
But there is a bunch of steps still needed to move this further and go live.
Keep you guys posted
Keep hearing pros talk about range breakouts
So my arrogance kicked in and said what if we just trade the range
Sure currency markets range so why not build it there.
I like simplicity so took the dumbest concept, a grid and made it my own.
Not a static grid, a grid that moves with the market.
The equity curve looks extremely stable
To the downside :(
Or is this again a data issue.
I will investigate this basic concept further in my upcoming post.
Nobody cares about your sharpe ratio or P factor to get rich.
Here are 5 methods that will actually get you rich in the trading industry, I only use 2 of these.
1: Agressive prop firm exposure.
Find the best deals for your trading style. Purchase maximum amount of challenges
Chosing the right firm can make the difference between losing consistently draining money
And getting 650% ROI on average per challenge bought
2: Gaslighting new traders into buying education
There are thousands of actual profitable strategies in free online books and research papers. But who cares about those?
What you do is instead of realistic returns you fake having a 80% winrate only risking $100 to make $400
Fake your records, grow a following sell courses + mentorship for $1000 minimum
3: Team up with unregulated broker deals and try and go viral on social media
Only take deals with brokers that b book their clients to get incredible ROI per customer you bring to them.
Only take deals with the ones giving you a big enough cut.
If your audience starts complaining move on to a new deal and lie that you did not know they where bad.
4: Share actual alpha and realistic expectations to novice and expert traders for a small fee
This one won't make you rich as fast as the other methods but you don't need to be a sociopath to do it.
This is what zenomtrader is doing and that is why I am an affiliate and take a small cut whenever people go there from here.
5: Build a track record on darwinex or other copy trading sites with actual big investors.
This one requires actual trading skill and can't be abused by noobs to the game.
The downside is also that it will take you atleast a year to start earning something decent and probably 4-5 years to get a full-time salary and trading millions in investor capital if you are good enough
The worst path to take out of all 5
Be thankful for your local ICT influencers
Be thankful to all the noobs losing all their savings on prop accounts
This business just can not possibly exist without them
If I gave you a button to spam every day to just risk your daily drawdown limit on an apex challenge
You press that button once at whatever time a day and target the same as your risking.
Congratulations you just beat more than 95% of all prop firm traders.
Do that for a year, buying a new challenge every time you lose.
Congratulations you just made $7500
Worst case scenario out of 100, you lose $2.373
Do that on a personal account risking the same?
You might aswell lose $45.900 and have no positive financial future.
Praise the predatory teachers online for making this opportunity be a thing
Praise the professionals who stay out of it thinking it's just gambling
Does anybody here see this business keep existing for years or is the prop firm business destined to fail.
It just does not make much sense with how good their offering is.
Seasonality can be exploited easily in grain and meat markets.
Matter of fact might be the only non-lagging indicator
9753672.54% return only -13.45% drawdown
Larry Williams also trades a lot of seasonality
50 years of trading 3666 trades
You heard that right
Most Trading Seasonality research sucks
Taking 50 years of price data to decide January is the best month to purchase an asset
There is a flaw in that approach
Backtesting that assumes we knew 50 years ago Januari is best month to buy.
I changed that building the seasonality oscillator.
The strategy rolls the data over time, only taking data it knows at the time of decision making for its trading.
Changed it from a boring equity for that month curve into an actionable oscillator.
Posted full strategy + agent md files inside zenom private discord.
Ill explain the logic below
The script uses a simple approach based on only recent data
It has a dataset for each day of the year which it updates every year.
How many % did the market move in coming 20 days after that day of the year.
Put into the data array
Plot the average over time
This gives a clean oscillator that predicts the future 20 bars.
That is basis for the indicator which is where the magic happens.
The strategic rebalancing using the indicator data is what I build yesterday.
The seasonality oscillator concept was written before AI agents existed and I kept private for a long time.
How exactly the strategy rebalancing happens is listed in the zenom private discord but I will provide the basics:
It creates a past prediction zone.
So what are the biggest forecast and create a range.
What is our current forecast saying and how does it compare.
Dynamically adjust market allocation based on seasonal patterns in 10% steps.
I've also included different methods for position and trade management that rebalance less so have less trading costs.
Remember this is tradingview and it is traded on their continuous futures contract data, results might not match real market performance
You've been using intraday ATR wrong. It is a lagging indicator.
This simple strategy based on a fundamentally different approach to ATR even performs on the most difficult markets to trade.
Exact same formula, different data source.
100% certainty of what is normal price behaviour.
No magic, simple maths
How this works:
ATR and other measures of volatility base their calculations on the previous bars series on the chart.
The volatility used in these bands measure expected volatility during that time of the day.
So not 14 previous candles.
previous 14 days a bar formed at this exact time.
Simple yet powerful.
Read further to get the exact strategy
1 trade a day on average tested over 20 years of deep backtesting data on tradingview.
7000+ trades per currency pair backtest.
Now let's get to the actual strategy rules.
Use the new ATR formula and create bands 2 deviations from previous bar open.
Enter using stop orders at bands using a 0.5 deviation stop and a 5 deviation target.
This strategy works for one simple reason.
It knows actual normal volatility range and profits when market agressively pushes outside of normal behaviour.
Profiting from news, macro events, institutional orders.
We trade the strategy on H1 timeframe position sizing at 100% of equity.
I shared the full code inside the zenom discord. With alert functionality for full-automation
Now you might be thinking it sure can't be that simple, this must be fake.
Yes and no
Simplicity is what creates the best / most robust strategies.
Any strategy I personally trade is as simple as the one described here.
But there is a catch here
This strategy runs into one huge problem and that is detalisation on tradingview.
It only runs through 4 ticks per bar on these test, so positions are only checked every 15 minutes.
That is not real execution.
Whenever you set the detalisation to 20 ticks per bar. Results change a lot and the edge almost completely dissapears.
Using small stops with huge targets on low resolution data creates an insanely good equity curve on any chart.
It's just a limit in backtesting
And that is why you never trust a backtest before you ran it personally and understand where the limits are and what are safe approaches to take.
Pictures below show strategy on 6N on low detalisation vs high detalisation.
The 3rd and 4rd picture covers 6J
The results can be massive
My ICT coding agent is improving with astra
I can't stand coding these up myself
But the agent will be able to just push out indicator in one go from youtube video.
Focusing on TTrades videos now, one of the more clear ICT influencers.
A scaling plan is the biggest green flag you can get when looking for a prop firm.
Very rewarding scaling plans like Earn2Trade or The5%ers
This is the only way a prop firm rewards consistent profitable performance.
Just like a traditional firm which allocates the most capital to their best performers having them climb the career ladder.
Having a more difficult challenge at a discount is not the option as a trader is not rewarded along the way.
With a scaling plan you get the same benefit as most prop firms where you get beta just from buying the challenge and sticking to the rules.
But instead like other prop firms, you are incentivised to keep the account instead of maximum gambling for highest return.
Firms like these are the only ones I can find where long-term consistent trading outperforms optimal gambling / account cycling.
On-Chain prop firms are just as bad as CFD / Futures firms and will do anything to avoid paying you out.
Terms like decentralised
guaranteed payouts,
radical transparancy.
When I looked into their terms t's exactly the same issue, maybe even worse than the futures-firm space.
Let me give you an example: vanta trading
Section 9.4: passing is "necessary but not sufficient" for an invitation to the "Network Trader Program." Invitation is at "Vanta's sole and absolute discretion," based on factors like "compliance history, KYC status, account limits, aggregate exposure, regulatory considerations, and business judgment"
So after passing your challenge not even getting your sim-funded account.
Just as broken as other props
Or carrotfunding that can just deny payout based on vibes:
Section 9.10: you can be disqualified for behavior "inconsistent with realistic market conditions or prudent risk management... even if numerical performance targets are otherwise met."
Section 9.14: "We reserve the right to forbid any trading behavior We deem to be inconsistent with Our risk policies, even if not explicitly listed in these Terms."
So far only found 2 that truly embrace on-chain no discretionary oversight pure rule based and transparent ecosystem based environment.
Let me know if there are any firms that actually can't avoid payout if you follow their exact terms that are not vague.
Been hyping up that ICT unicorn model breaker block by TTrades this week.
Strategy looked exceptionally well on 15min NQ, but how about the charts in the video?
- EURUSD 1h breakeven
- EURUSD 5m terrible chop no profit
- GBPUSD 1h steady downhill
- GBPUSD 5m even worse
- ES 1h little bit good
- ES 5m terrible chop
- NQ 5m incredible chaotic downhill
This is without trading costs going 20 years back thousands of trades per test.
I was kinda hoping this to be different.
The results are far above my expectations with this ICT script.
I thought these concepts would underperform as hard as the man himself.
But after yesterdays test needed to look deeped into this model.
Can it be improved?
A common tactic to improve these breakers is what they call displacement.
So I asked my AI agent to add the option:
Require Displacement on structure break.
Purely systematic no person involved,
No discretion
Just measuring the candle size and body to wick ratio.
It almost halved the amount of breaker blocks that met these goals.
But somehow the rule worked and the profit factor got increased significantly.
And it makes steady gains from both long and short side on NQ is what sets this system apart.
Anything else that could be added to make these even better?
Here is a list of all the tradingview test I ran to see if the equity curve looks any good.
Just using 1 contract,
Purely looking at the graph not the % profit number. I've put them in order I posted above.
Could not get the full list in here due to X limits but I guesse just these forex backtest shows the picture.
One thing to add do,
Forex is almost impossible to get a good system on on the intraday level.
I would not recommend this market for anybody but it was the market TTrades chose in his tutorial.
There is another firm joining the Prop Muse leaderboards: @E8Markets
We added all their futures accounts to the leaderboard.
Their Zero Max account are scoring very high on odds of reaching a payout for our 3 simulated strategies.
A trader with a modest 53% winrate using 500$ risk per trade 1 to 1 RR would reach first payout on average 47.5% of the time.
Ofcourse this is all just simulation but there's real potential for profitable traders on this firm.
When it comes to most potential for the amount spend. The Zero Started and Signature accounts sit on top.
There is no excuse not to take advantage of the futures-firm prop firm potential with deals this good for profitable traders.
