聚焦 Web3 研究交流与实务讨论:数据、投研、产品、合规与市场观察。理性、高信噪比。

HongKong
Joined December 2022
Cointelegraph Seeks Buyer as Monthly Website Visits Plunge Over 90% According to CoinDesk, prominent crypto media outlet Cointelegraph is seeking a buyer, though the specific asking price has not been disclosed. Reports indicate that Cointelegraph suffered a manual penalty from Google in October 2025, leading to an approximate 80% drop in organic search traffic and causing the site to briefly vanish from Google search results. Data from Similarweb shows its monthly visits have plummeted from over 12 million in December 2024 to slightly above 700,000 in early September 2026. Founded in 2013 with a workforce of over 200 employees, Cointelegraph has not yet responded to requests for comment.
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Prediction Market Platform Predict.fun Teases Token, Hinting at Upcoming Launch Prediction market platform Predict.fun posted "Soon" on X along with an image of a token featuring the letter "P," hinting at the potential launch of a native token. Official details regarding the token's name, release date, and specific tokenomics have not yet been announced.
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Musk Responds to SpaceXAI Name Change Suggestion: Will Change to SpaceXSI In response to a community user asking whether SpaceXAI could be renamed SpaceXSI, Elon Musk replied, "Yes, we will make that change." Musk previously posted that he would stop using the term "AI" (Artificial Intelligence), stating that "SI" (Super Intelligence) is a better term to use.
Replying to @XFreeze
Yes, we will make that change
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Wood (Cathie Wood): Annual 99.99% Drop in AI Inference Costs May Usher in an Era of "Good Deflation" Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, stated that cost reductions driven by innovation platforms like AI will gradually filter through to the broader economy. This shift will boost productivity and corporate profitability while driving inflation down to levels lower than most investors expect—a phenomenon known as "good deflation." According to Wood, AI inference costs are currently plunging at an annual rate of 99.99% for a given level of performance. Meanwhile, OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has surged from $20 billion to $70 billion, demonstrating that falling costs are fueling rapid growth in demand. ARK Invest predicts that real GDP growth could reach the high single digits—a projection many view as "crazy"—and notes that interest rates might actually rise in an environment of stronger real economic growth.
Bill Ackman’s post about inflation took me back to the late 1970s, when similar concerns were everywhere. What followed was stronger growth and falling inflation, helped by the PC and software revolution. We believe today’s innovation platforms could have an even greater impact. Most people think our forecast for high single-digit real GDP growth is crazy. I understand why. We’ve spent our lives in a roughly 3% global growth world. But look at AI. At a fixed level of performance, inference costs are falling 99.99% a year. Yet OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate has jumped from $20 billion to $70 billion. As prices fall, demand explodes. We’ve never seen anything like this kind of growth! We believe those cost declines will seep into the broader economy, lifting productivity and profitability while pushing inflation much lower than most investors expect. That’s “good deflation.” Interest rates could rise in that environment because real growth is stronger. In this month's In The Know, I respond to Bill’s concerns, explain the research behind our outlook, and examine what credit markets are telling us about the AI investment boom. Watch it here: youtu.be/4Rir6HADnT8?si=JHQv…
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NEAR Intents Claims to Have Identified Hacker, Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum to Return Funds On October 2, NEAR Intents stated that it had confirmed the identity of the individual behind the security breach that led to approximately $3.8 million in user fund losses on Thursday, granting a 48-hour deadline to return the relevant funds under a "responsible disclosure" framework. Alex Shevchenko, General Manager of NEAR Intents, stated: "We have confirmed your identity," while also publishing three separate wallet addresses to receive Bitcoin, BNB, and Solana. "You know better than most how responsible disclosure works—this is the final opportunity to utilize this mechanism. After 48 hours, this window will close." On Thursday, NEAR Intents suspended related services after identifying a vulnerability in how the Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure interacts with NEAR Intents smart contracts.
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Suspected Hijacking of Flydubai Flight Prompted Emergency Scramble of Israeli Fighter Jets According to a report by Israel's Channel 12, a Flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv from Dubai issued emergency code 7700 followed by hijacking code 7500 earlier on Wednesday (today). Israeli Air Force fighter jets were scrambled to intercept the aircraft. After circling over Jordan, the plane—carrying approximately 180 passengers—diverted toward Saudi Arabia. Israeli authorities currently cannot establish contact with the aircraft, and the flight is prohibited from landing in Israeli territory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Transportation Minister Miri Regev are currently holding emergency consultations regarding the incident.
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A French couple was targeted at home by crypto robbers twice within six months. On the morning of September 29, three masked armed intruders climbed over a wall and broke into a residence in Saint-Jean-de-Védas. Police acted swiftly and have arrested all three suspects. This same couple had suffered an almost identical attack earlier this year on April 11, when armed intruders broke in and engaged in a physical struggle with the homeowner. The same address, the same modus operandi, and less than six months apart. What does this imply? It points to either a data leak—where details of their crypto holdings and residential address became public intelligence on the dark web after the first raid—or an inside job, where failure to secure the expected haul the first time led to a second attempt with a different crew. Crypto-related violent crimes are surging in France this year. From Péchabou to Strasbourg to Anglet, the robbers' logic is straightforward: while on-chain addresses can remain anonymous, people living in luxury homes have fixed coordinates. When crypto wealth intersects with physical identity, a reinforced door matters more than a private key.
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Ugly buildings pay higher taxes. Gaming is military training. The guy talking freedom works for the empire. What on earth did Vitalik write? A guide to Snowmoon.
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Gold Suffers Rare Single-Day Plunge Unseen in Nearly Two Decades as Surging US Treasury Yields Rattle Precious Metals
Today's drop in gold prices was highly unusual. Gold prices fell -3.4% today, marking one of the rarest single-day declines of the last two decades. Since 2006, gold has recorded an average daily change of +0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Today’s selloff registered a Z-score of -2.90, placing it deep in the left tail of the distribution. Statistically, a daily decline this extreme occurs just ~0.2% of the time, or roughly once every 2 years assuming a normal distribution. The surge in yields is creating an extraordinary disruption across the precious metals market.
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Manus 2.0 Launches: Moving Beyond Office Tools to General Agents Manus founder Xiao Hong announced Manus 2.0, comparing Agents to "selling PCs"—built for work, but needing video and gaming capabilities to offer a full experience. Key updates include: 1、Cascade: Self-developed Agent framework. 2、Manus Studio: A desktop app for video and game creation, enabling multiplayer gaming via cloud PCs. 3、Cue: An independent Agent equipped with its own phone number, email, payment ability, and cloud PC (its promo video was coded entirely by Cue itself). Operationally, cloud execution ensures the Agent no longer interrupts local mouse control. Xiao Hong also confirmed that a dedicated Chinese version is currently in active preparation. "We thought Manus would just be a footnote in the industry's evolution," Xiao Hong noted. "Now, we might have the chance to write a full chapter." Manus aims to show that Agents are not just chat boxes, but capable digital entities that code, create, play, and transact autonomously.
Introducing Manus 2.0
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ZachXBT: Group Suspected of Assisting Korean Hackers is Moving Stolen Bitget Funds and Publicly Seeking Technical Support On-chain sleuth ZachXBT disclosed that illicit actors assisting a group suspected to be North Korean hackers are publicly seeking order processing support in the public Discord server and Telegram channel of a related service provider. The laundered funds stem from the recent $387 million security breach targeting Bitget. Investigations reveal that one individual, alias "Alias 4," was previously involved in laundering the $292 million lost in the Kelp DAO exploit earlier this year. Currently, the funds are being moved via cross-chain bridges across multiple networks and deposited into mixing services like Wasabi. ZachXBT stated that this laundering pattern aligns closely with tactics previously attributed to the TraderTraitor hacking group. He added that he has been closely tracking these groups and plans to publish additional tracking data in the coming weeks.
BREAKING: Chinese illicit actors laundering funds from the $387M Bitget exploit on behalf of the alleged DPRK attackers are openly asking for support with orders in public Discord servers and Telegram channels of services they use. Notably, Alias 4 (below) was also seen laundering funds from the Kelp DAO $292M exploit earlier this year. I've observed the same pattern after multiple TraderTraitor attributed exploits, and I've closely tracked these groups. I plan to share more of my data on them in coming weeks. Currently, funds are being chain-hopped via bridges and being deposited into mixing services such as Wasabi. Alias 1 - Cc Discord: cc02006 Discord ID: 1351486674386948148 Txn: F08657EFAEAE7B58217CD17A22BF4779582E5D080C2E92E173BC239A5D828363 Alias 2 - jack Discord: jack_34808 Discord ID: 1553705721768714377 Txn: 68583D313A0CCC99F2702D61D05A242A69C86CAE09ED252B65F34B677C377F69 Alias 3 - Melon Discord: under0346 Discord ID: 1394240539108573215 Txn 1: ABE2AEF8B10057E60F8259CA2CA2CD5D71D38D254960FEEE89CB3C95A964873F Txn 2: 7BE290865901DEB1680A6D692A11392D1FDDACA0D31C48F26DCB249F2444BD6B Alias 4 - lolo / Marin TG: pvpcz TGID: 6223514198 Discord: losern Discord ID: 1024415186527985704 Txn: 8E935C19D00F40639B78BF1FD094FE48C92118F3E586AB52DF93851080CCCE15 Alias 5 - HELP ME Discord: helpme031897 Discord ID: 1554035533817188384 Txn: 7C58CAD760EBBED54F2CA4D2146D056910B7B6688B4F524396DC8807353C2379
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Bitget Processes BTC Withdrawals Smoothly Upon Reopening, with Initial Batch of ~6,900 Confirmed On-Chain On September 28, Bitget reopened BTC withdrawal services as scheduled at 16:00 (UTC+8). During a community livestream, Bitget CEO Gracy shared updates on the initial phase of recovery, noting that the BTC withdrawal channel is operating smoothly, with the first batch of requests processed and credited successfully. According to real-time data disclosed during the stream, as of 16:50 (UTC+8), the platform had processed approximately 7,683 BTC withdrawal requests, totaling around 3,609 BTC, with no backlog of orders. Among these, an initial batch of roughly 6,946 withdrawal requests has already received blockchain confirmation, and remaining applications are being processed in an orderly manner. According to the previously announced timeline, withdrawals for ETH-related networks will reopen on September 29 at 16:00 (UTC+8), followed by USDT-related networks on September 30 at 16:00 (UTC+8). Withdrawals for other tokens, fiat services, and C2C trading will resume sequentially starting October 2 at 16:00 (UTC+8).
Bitget has begun the phased resumption of withdrawals following the security incident identified on September 24, with BTC withdrawals on the Bitcoin network started at 08:00 UTC on September 28 as scheduled. The resumption follows additional security work across Bitget's withdrawal infrastructure. The vulnerability has been remediated and the incident remains contained, with no further unauthorized transfers identified following containment. User account balances remain unaffected.
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US-Iran Talks Stall; US Treasury Yields Rise US Treasury yields ticked higher as US-Iran peace talks reached a standstill and oil prices advanced during the session, leaving yields near recent multi-year highs. Negotiators are urging Iran to make concessions regarding its nuclear program to resume ceasefire talks with the United States. The developments follow US President Donald Trump's rejection of a ceasefire proposal submitted by Iran. According to Tradeweb data, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose 4.4 basis points to 4.907%, the 10-year yield advanced 2.8 basis points to 5.208%, and the 30-year yield climbed 1.7 basis points to 5.518%.
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Weekly Macro & US Stock Outlook: Key Economic Data: Wednesday 20:15: US September ADP Employment Report Wednesday 20:30: US August Core PCE Price Index YoY Thursday 20:30: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Friday 20:30 (Key Focus): US September Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Central Bank Dynamics & Speeches: Federal Reserve: Multiple officials, including Goolsbee, Williams, Cook, and Kashkari, will speak intensively as the market closely watches for rate cut signals ahead of October. ECB & Bank of England: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Thursday 16:00) and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Thursday 21:30) will deliver speeches. US Earnings Highlights: Wednesday After-Market: Micron Technology (MU) earnings (Key indicator for memory chips) Thursday: Nike (NKE) quarterly earnings (Key indicator for consumer demand) Note: All times listed are in Beijing Time (BJT).
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THORChain Sparks Controversy by Refusing to Freeze Hacker Funds; SlowMist Founder Cosine Accuses Protocol of "Double Standards" Cross-chain liquidity protocol THORChain has sparked industry-wide debate after refusing to block hacker money laundering activity. Responding to a request from Bitget's CEO to restrict malicious addresses, THORChain declined, citing principles of "decentralization and censorship resistance"—a stance previously backed by a community vote. Data shows that between 2023 and 2026, the protocol processed roughly $9.27 billion in illicit funds (including $1.2 billion from the Bybit hack), netting over $10 million in transaction fees. In response, SlowMist founder Cosine publicly called out THORChain's "double standards." He noted that while the protocol intervenes swiftly when its own funds are stolen, it hides behind claims of "decentralization and lack of authority" during major industry exploits—even as issuers like Circle act to freeze stolen assets—allowing THORChain to continue profiting from illicit transaction fees. Cosine emphasized that decentralization should not be a mere slogan, and that addressing shared industry threats remains essential.
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🚨 First Warning Sign of Altcoin Mania: Momentum May Be Fading! CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that the altcoin market is showing signs of overheating: Surging Inflows: Since June, the total altcoin market cap (including ETH) has absorbed over $371 billion, growing 45% in just a few months. Trend Reversal: In August, 80% of altcoins on Binance were below their 200-day moving average. Today, 87% of these coins have flipped above it, entering an upward momentum phase. Potential Risks: Such frenzy historically struggles to sustain itself. Altcoin deposits to exchanges have climbed to levels not seen since October 2025 (the peak of the last market cycle). Total market cap (Total2) RSI has recently flashed a bearish divergence. While the absolute scale of exchange deposits remains relatively modest compared to the early days of the last bull run, these warning signs are worth watching closely! 👇
⚠️ Altcoin euphoria meets Its first warning signs On-chain data suggests altcoins may be entering a more critical phase. Altcoins have recently attracted a significant share of capital. Since June 2026, Total2, which represents altcoin market cap (ETH included), has absorbed over $371B in inflows, a 45% increase over just a few months. This sudden appetite for altcoins is also reflected in the number of altcoins listed on Binance now trading above their 200-day moving average, a key trend indicator. While 80% of altcoins on Binance were trading below this level back in August, only 13% remain below it today. This means 87% of altcoins on the platform have reversed their prior trend and entered bullish momentum. This shift points to a form of euphoria taking hold across altcoins. Historically, however, this kind of dynamic isn't sustainable and eventually runs out of steam.
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US and Iran May Phasedly Reopen Transit Rights in the Strait of Hormuz Representatives from the United States and Iran have held secret talks during the United Nations General Assembly regarding "unblocking the strait in exchange for lifting sanctions." With the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, mounting expectations over crude oil supply tightness and persistent global inflationary pressures have served as key drivers pushing both sides to the negotiating table. Against this backdrop, Washington and Tehran are seeking a feasible path toward a phased ceasefire and de-escalation while remaining within the existing framework of the "maximum pressure" policy. Progress in these contacts will directly impact the security of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the stability of the global crude oil supply chain.
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Bitcoin Bottom Signal Emerges, Bullish Target Set at $126,000 Crypto trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that he believes the Bitcoin bottom has been confirmed. He expects that during the push toward $126K in this bull cycle, the maximum pullback will be around 10–15%. Should BTC form a local high at $87K and subsequently pull back to the $70K low-range level, it would present a major buying opportunity. Currently, BTC is testing the key support zone at $80K. If it holds above the previously flipped range high, the probability of continued upside remains strong. Killa noted that he would only consider shorting around the $90K level, as short-term downside potential is limited. Additionally, he compared historical data: while BTC suffered a maximum drawdown of 78% during the previous bear market, this cycle saw only a 54% drop. Furthermore, the maximum pullback throughout the last bull market did not exceed 22%, indicating that the current market trend is significantly stronger.
This is a very important post & I suggest you read it at least 10 times. I believe the bottom is in. From here to $126K, I expect the largest pullbacks in this bull market to be roughly 10–15%. That means, theoretically, if $87K acts as our local high before a deeper retrace to the low-$70Ks, this would be the area where Bitcoin would find its floor. If we were to reach those levels, I’d be looking to significantly increase my continuation longs. As I’ve said numerous times, I rarely short during bull markets unless price is testing a strong, well defined area. Right now, Bitcoin is testing a critical zone around the $80Ks. If we can hold the previous range high we flipped, there’s still a very real possibility of continuation to the upside. So while a pullback could happen, downside is limited. The only place which I would feel comfortable taking shorts around would be in the $90Ks.
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Brooklyn Man Sentenced to Up to 12 Years in Prison for Nearly $16 Million Crypto Scam On September 24, Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez announced that 23-year-old Brooklyn resident Ronald Spektor was sentenced on September 23, 2026, by the Brooklyn Supreme Court to 4 to 12 years in prison for executing a massive Coinbase phishing scam. Impersonating Coinbase customer support representatives under the guise that "accounts were being hacked," Spektor duped approximately 100 users across the United States into transferring their crypto assets into wallets under his control, stealing a cumulative total of roughly $15.944 million. The stolen funds were subsequently laundered through repeated swaps across multiple crypto exchanges, ultimately flowing into gambling platforms, gift cards, and digital asset purchasing channels. Operating under the handle @lolimfeelingevil in the Telegram channel "Blockchain enemies," Spektor publicly flaunted his illicit gains and recruited accomplices to assist in social engineering attacks. Investigators linked his home IP address to several stolen wallets through blockchain analysis, digital forensics, and multiple search warrants, ultimately verifying his identity. Spektor pleaded guilty to all 31 counts, including first-degree money laundering and first-degree grand larceny, and was ordered to forfeit over $500,000 in assets while paying nearly $16 million in restitution to the victims.
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Onchain data unlocked: BTC just triggered its 5th historic "bull market confirmation" signal. Simply put: short-term buyers' cost basis has officially crossed above long-term holders' cost basis. As long as new capital (like spot ETFs) keeps bidding at higher levels, structural momentum is locked in. Combined with nearly 20% of total BTC supply permanently dormant or lost, liquid supply is shrinking fast. The playbook is set. Now let's see if ETF inflows can send this straight to the moon. 🚀
✅ Bull Market Confirmed. After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted. This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic Bitcoin is putting in place, though there's always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out. This signal happens when the STH cost basis confirms crossing above the active LTH cost basis. By active LTH, I mean the portion of supply that has moved at least once over the past 7 years. This way, we exclude the portion of supply that can be considered dormant/immobile. It's an arbitrary choice, not a perfect one, but it still makes the LTH cost basis more coherent. Worth noting: we have more than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years that continue to stay dormant. This portion of supply keeps growing by roughly 8 000 to 30 000 BTC per month on average. Since 2019, this average has only gone negative once, following the reawakening of an old miner who moved around 100 000 BTC, so this remains a very isolated event. If this signal were ever to be invalidated, I'll let you know, but for now we're looking at a very positive development for Bitcoin, notably driven by the inflow of ETF liquidity.
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