Soon.

Yes, we will make that change

Bill Ackman’s post about inflation took me back to the late 1970s, when similar concerns were everywhere. What followed was stronger growth and falling inflation, helped by the PC and software revolution. We believe today’s innovation platforms could have an even greater impact. Most people think our forecast for high single-digit real GDP growth is crazy. I understand why. We’ve spent our lives in a roughly 3% global growth world. But look at AI. At a fixed level of performance, inference costs are falling 99.99% a year. Yet OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate has jumped from $20 billion to $70 billion. As prices fall, demand explodes. We’ve never seen anything like this kind of growth! We believe those cost declines will seep into the broader economy, lifting productivity and profitability while pushing inflation much lower than most investors expect. That’s “good deflation.” Interest rates could rise in that environment because real growth is stronger. In this month's In The Know, I respond to Bill’s concerns, explain the research behind our outlook, and examine what credit markets are telling us about the AI investment boom. Watch it here: youtu.be/4Rir6HADnT8?si=JHQv…

Today's drop in gold prices was highly unusual. Gold prices fell -3.4% today, marking one of the rarest single-day declines of the last two decades. Since 2006, gold has recorded an average daily change of +0.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Today’s selloff registered a Z-score of -2.90, placing it deep in the left tail of the distribution. Statistically, a daily decline this extreme occurs just ~0.2% of the time, or roughly once every 2 years assuming a normal distribution. The surge in yields is creating an extraordinary disruption across the precious metals market.

Introducing Manus 2.0

BREAKING: Chinese illicit actors laundering funds from the $387M Bitget exploit on behalf of the alleged DPRK attackers are openly asking for support with orders in public Discord servers and Telegram channels of services they use. Notably, Alias 4 (below) was also seen laundering funds from the Kelp DAO $292M exploit earlier this year. I've observed the same pattern after multiple TraderTraitor attributed exploits, and I've closely tracked these groups. I plan to share more of my data on them in coming weeks. Currently, funds are being chain-hopped via bridges and being deposited into mixing services such as Wasabi. Alias 1 - Cc Discord: cc02006 Discord ID: 1351486674386948148 Txn: F08657EFAEAE7B58217CD17A22BF4779582E5D080C2E92E173BC239A5D828363 Alias 2 - jack Discord: jack_34808 Discord ID: 1553705721768714377 Txn: 68583D313A0CCC99F2702D61D05A242A69C86CAE09ED252B65F34B677C377F69 Alias 3 - Melon Discord: under0346 Discord ID: 1394240539108573215 Txn 1: ABE2AEF8B10057E60F8259CA2CA2CD5D71D38D254960FEEE89CB3C95A964873F Txn 2: 7BE290865901DEB1680A6D692A11392D1FDDACA0D31C48F26DCB249F2444BD6B Alias 4 - lolo / Marin TG: pvpcz TGID: 6223514198 Discord: losern Discord ID: 1024415186527985704 Txn: 8E935C19D00F40639B78BF1FD094FE48C92118F3E586AB52DF93851080CCCE15 Alias 5 - HELP ME Discord: helpme031897 Discord ID: 1554035533817188384 Txn: 7C58CAD760EBBED54F2CA4D2146D056910B7B6688B4F524396DC8807353C2379

Bitget has begun the phased resumption of withdrawals following the security incident identified on September 24, with BTC withdrawals on the Bitcoin network started at 08:00 UTC on September 28 as scheduled. The resumption follows additional security work across Bitget's withdrawal infrastructure. The vulnerability has been remediated and the incident remains contained, with no further unauthorized transfers identified following containment. User account balances remain unaffected.

⚠️ Altcoin euphoria meets Its first warning signs On-chain data suggests altcoins may be entering a more critical phase. Altcoins have recently attracted a significant share of capital. Since June 2026, Total2, which represents altcoin market cap (ETH included), has absorbed over $371B in inflows, a 45% increase over just a few months. This sudden appetite for altcoins is also reflected in the number of altcoins listed on Binance now trading above their 200-day moving average, a key trend indicator. While 80% of altcoins on Binance were trading below this level back in August, only 13% remain below it today. This means 87% of altcoins on the platform have reversed their prior trend and entered bullish momentum. This shift points to a form of euphoria taking hold across altcoins. Historically, however, this kind of dynamic isn't sustainable and eventually runs out of steam.

This is a very important post & I suggest you read it at least 10 times. I believe the bottom is in. From here to $126K, I expect the largest pullbacks in this bull market to be roughly 10–15%. That means, theoretically, if $87K acts as our local high before a deeper retrace to the low-$70Ks, this would be the area where Bitcoin would find its floor. If we were to reach those levels, I’d be looking to significantly increase my continuation longs. As I’ve said numerous times, I rarely short during bull markets unless price is testing a strong, well defined area. Right now, Bitcoin is testing a critical zone around the $80Ks. If we can hold the previous range high we flipped, there’s still a very real possibility of continuation to the upside. So while a pullback could happen, downside is limited. The only place which I would feel comfortable taking shorts around would be in the $90Ks.

✅ Bull Market Confirmed. After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted. This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic Bitcoin is putting in place, though there's always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out. This signal happens when the STH cost basis confirms crossing above the active LTH cost basis. By active LTH, I mean the portion of supply that has moved at least once over the past 7 years. This way, we exclude the portion of supply that can be considered dormant/immobile. It's an arbitrary choice, not a perfect one, but it still makes the LTH cost basis more coherent. Worth noting: we have more than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years that continue to stay dormant. This portion of supply keeps growing by roughly 8 000 to 30 000 BTC per month on average. Since 2019, this average has only gone negative once, following the reawakening of an old miner who moved around 100 000 BTC, so this remains a very isolated event. If this signal were ever to be invalidated, I'll let you know, but for now we're looking at a very positive development for Bitcoin, notably driven by the inflow of ETF liquidity.