I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public. Caleb vs. Maye will get all the attention. My model picks Chicago. New England’s injury report makes that call interesting. Two linemen out. Another questionable. Here’s where Thursday night could turn. I build NFL models for fun. Then I put the predictions somewhere I can’t conveniently forget them. This week: Bears to beat the Patriots. What makes me agree with the pick? New England has Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker ruled out. Morgan Moses is questionable. Chicago is allowing opponents to convert just 25.8% of third downs. A patched-up offensive line trying to sort out disguised pressure is a matchup I’d want to attack. But there’s a very real way this prediction goes wrong. Chicago ranks 29th in EPA allowed on first and second down. Maye can punish this defense before it ever gets to those third-down situations. That’s what I’m watching: Can New England create big plays early, or does Chicago keep forcing Maye into obvious passing downs? Caleb’s 86.1% adjusted completion rate leads PFF’s qualifying quarterbacks. That’s encouraging. It also doesn’t mean every throw carries the same difficulty. I’m taking Chicago. I’m watching the protection and early downs to see whether the reasoning holds up. Who’s your winner, and what am I missing? Follow me for the forecasts and postgame breakdowns. Friday, we check this one. Saturday, the Sunday Film Room returns.