Politically minded. Working on global development. China watcher in spe. Views are private, RTs need not imply endorsement. Also on Bsky

Joined June 2011
Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
"We estimate that Mr Trump’s policies will cost the poorest tenth of American households, with average income after taxes and transfers of around $37,000, almost 3% of their income. The richest tenth, with average after-tax incomes of nearly $500,000, will gain nearly 3% (see chart 1). Households in the middle, with average income of roughly $100,000, lose more than $400"
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
Regarding Russian conscripts, this is not the case. The overwhelming percentage of Russian forces fighting in this war are men well over 30 who accepted service contracts for money. They were not conscripted, or mobilized. For more on this topic: warontherocks.com/a-return-t…
Replying to @skscartoon
The endless slaughter of Ukrainian and Russians must stop. We should some sympathy for the poor Russian conscripts too. Those kids have no choice but to fight and die in drone strikes.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
This is Novi Sad, the site of the horrific awning collapse that killed 16 people, sparking the massive student-led protests that led to Vučić's demise two years later. Seeing the entire place bounce like this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime thing.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
There was a chap at Oxford who came up in the 80s to research the 4 year tenure of a Yorkshire bishop. He spent 40 years on it, draining an inheritance left on condition it was spent on his education. Daily Mass (sometimes several times a day), lobster every day at Brown's next to the Oratory (hence the gout), magnificent dinner parties for miscreants, oddballs and grad students, and generous to charity. His fingers were so fat that his signet rings appeared stuck to them. Having spent every last penny, he was evicted from his apartment and became a monk some 3 years ago. No wife, no kids, and I don't think the DPhil ever got finished. Top 5 most eccentric human beings I’ve met in my life. Bless him.
When I was at U Chicago we had a 53rd year PhD defense. They started a career in grad school and remained ABD until after retirement. All of our completion stats were skewed because they never officially left the program.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
Hungary's Magyar becomes first foreign leader to call the leaders of the Student List in Serbia to congratulate them.
I have just spoken by phone with the leaders of the Students' List @studentblokade, who won the elections in Serbia, to congratulate them on their victory. I assured them of Hungary’s support. I was delighted to hear how much strength our victory in April had given them during this difficult struggle.
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Thank God Serbia borders Europe, which is why we preserved our democracy. If we bordered Russia, we might have suffered the same fate as Belarus or Georgia. That's why I'm also sad tonight, because our Georgian and Belarusian friends continue to suffer the fate we managed to escape.
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In Serbia, @avucic has conceded defeat. The Students’ List has won an absolute majority in the elections. Celebrations have begun in the streets across Serbia. Sound familiar?
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
not to alarm you but your friend may be lauded Italian medievalist and cultural critic umberto eco
one time i showed casablanca to a friend for the first time, and when it was over, he said it was good, but it was distracting how many cliches they used. “i think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.” lines like that. anyway this tweet reminds me of this
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
Gunther Fehlinger is so funny because everyone assumes he’s an Austrian politician or Eurocrat or something of the sort when he just isn’t. You have to fake it until you make it.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
So let met get that straight: paying a wealth tax is impossible (“billionaires have no liquidity”, “it would be taxing unrealized gains”, “their wealth is virtual”) but paying half a billion to influence elections is possible. Did I understand well?
Elon Musk has cemented his record as the largest individual political donor in modern American history. Musk poured $446 million of his own money into this year’s midterm elections, mostly aimed at preserving the Republican Party’s control of Congress. wapo.st/4igb5Kq
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
It’s not just the impact the format has on the content, and, subsequently, how on we imbibe information and experience entertainment, but yes on attention spans, but this isn’t just about the effects on education or average cognitive ability (or cognitive development in kids). The erosion of people’s capacity for sustained concentration has much wider effects: on any serious social and cultural commentary, yes, but also less appreciated on moral judgment, forming social bonds, empathy. I’ve met people who seem incapable of starting or maintaining romantic relationships and it took me a long time to realise that they don’t have the necessary attention, expect instant gratification, and become extremely shallow in their tastes and judgment without realising. Relatedly, I’ve also met three senior London journalists who have all said, almost in passing: ‘Oh, I can’t watch movies, at all, ever. I only do it with the FF button on 2.0x.’ A bit alarming imo.
Ban it. Unironically. It’s rotting people’s brains. And even worse: it’s leading to calls for shortening und dumbing down everything because attention spans are being fucked. It has no positive effects; it’s just bad and everyone knows it.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
I cannot put my finger on it, but with the advent of this kind of content something about the very structure, nature, language of conversations with GenZ changed for the worse very rapidly
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
Ban it. Unironically. It’s rotting people’s brains. And even worse: it’s leading to calls for shortening und dumbing down everything because attention spans are being fucked. It has no positive effects; it’s just bad and everyone knows it.
The rise of mass short-form video content has been an unmitigated disaster.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
I rarely agree with Rahman but this is consistent with what many people have pointed out about LFI and its internal culture: no serious interest in governing, despotic, personalist and centred around JLM, happy to mislead the public about policy, entirely theatrical, self-serving, cynical charlatanry, and, yeah, likely willing to fan unrest even in the knowledge that it might fuel support for the far-right, if it puts them in a better position to grandstand. Not that they are to blame for the escalation, but I resent the credulity of the anglophone left that has thrown in their lot with them, just because JLM babbles something about 'the creativity of the youth' and Guetté is 'slaying' holding a cigarette. Just a total surrender to the worst bourgeois radical impulses which have kept the left irrelevant and obsolete: a focus on the rhetoric, theatre and aesthetics of activism and street politics, married to arcane theorising and academic solipsism.
Why would @JLMelenchon incite violence knowing it will help Le Pen? Because he wants Le Pen to win and he becomes leader of the opposition. His people talk of a third round of the election "on the streets" if @MLP_officiel wins. If so, Saturday's violence will seem mild.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
One of the darkest and most reprehensible ideas of our time is the notion that those who do the right thing by helping a country under attack are somehow responsible for the war and the suffering it causes.
It struck me recently that people who support the endless Ukraine-Russia was because they "want to punish the aggressor" make the same mistake as people who during the Vietnam war supported the endless war "because if Vietnam falls, all of SE Asia will be communust". In both cases they were wrong because they failed to look at a broader picture and at the future.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
This is obviously much bigger than Ukraine. Tomorrow it could be F-35s shut down because a US president wants gas prices 2 cents lower before elections. Or Saudi Patriot systems disabled during a missile attack because Riyadh refuses to increase oil production.
As I’ve pointed out before, it doesn’t matter whether it’s SpaceX/Starshield, Musk, or the White House. For the end user, the result is the same: the product will be politically weaponized against you. Whether the White House orders it or Musk proposes it makes no difference.
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
The fact that diesel deals with Putin can’t actually tame US inflation or help Republicans in the midterms is immaterial. US policy isn’t driven by reality: it’s driven by Trump’s emotive perceptions of the availability of a transaction. /3
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Adrian Kreuzspiegl retweeted
What European leaders need to spell out to their populations is that the authoritarian powers — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — are not only depending their alliance with each other but also with organised crime as democratic alliances fracture.
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