#canada #lithium #electricvehicles #lithiumionbattery #news DYOR Not investment advice
Canada
Joined November 2019
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Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
China EV domestic sales soon to represent <50% of global EV sales.
chinaevhome.com/2026/10/19/g…
Table from BMI
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Hello friends from Japan! On a family holiday here, but I promised to share this chunk from the Sep letter I wrote to investors of my Fund. "The #Lithium Market has a new bear narrative – and why we think it’s wrong."
greenmetalfund.com/lithiums-…
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
The world keeps going electric and the United States is going the other way.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Lithium inventories are falling. So are prices. Is the market being manipulated?
@matt_fernley questions whether GFEX price action reflects the fundamentals, while major producers commit billions to expansion.
We examine the manipulation debate, the Goldman- @usuallyYJLee forecast divide, and what lithium equities may be missing.
(00:00) Lithium Bulls Challenge Bearish Forecasts
(05:57) $RIO Flags Lithium Supply Risks
(07:59) Why Critical Minerals Are Selling Off
(14:26) Lithium Producers Sell Off Indiscriminately
(17:07) Lithium Prices Defy Falling Inventories
(26:15) Lithium Demand Is Being Underestimated
(30:02) $PLS Expansion Drives Costs Lower
(35:09) PLS Infrastructure Raises True Capex
(39:59) Battery Inventories Hide Structural Changes
(43:07) Strong Projects Still Attract Capital
(45:11) Why Select Lithium Developers Stand Out
(50:34) DLE Projects Attract Strategic Backing
(54:00) Cash-Rich Developers Offer Opportunities
(58:02) Why Batteries Deserve Strategic Support
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
🧠 Cisco Lithium Project Facts:
👉 $75M cash on hand (most recent financials)
👉 Inferred MRE: 295 Mt at 1.36% Li20
👉 Largest spodumene lithium project in the Western Hemisphere and 4th largest globally
👉 Unparalleled location advantage
👉 PEA coming soon
$QTWO.V
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
A bearish report of a not-so-bearish #lithium market.
Demand:
1) China's retail EV sales were up 8% m-o-m but down 16% y-o-y.
This appears in stark contrast with China's wholesale EV sales, which were up 11% m-o-m and up 11.3%-12% y-o-y about which not a single word is said.
No comments either on the extraordinary growth of China's EV exports which drove the wholesale EV sales: Up 8.6% m-o-m and up 160% y-o-y.
2) CPCA's forecast for EV sales in Q4: Flat.
Haven't been able to find such specific forecast.
3) Speculation aroud the EU-China agreement to cap the number of PHEVs imported from China.
This will have a negligible impact on overall Li demand: 0.4% per year at most.
4) Tax rebate to be reduced from 13% to 9% starting in April 2027.
Too far away in time to affect the GFEX prices.
Supply:
1) Finniss Lithium Project: It announced it had produced its first spodumene concentrate.
This project will likely produce at most 900-1,800 mt of LCE through the end of the year with an insignificant effect on overall Li demand.
2) Pioneer Dome Project: It is expected to ship its first DSO at the end of the month.
With a possible production of 1,500-3,000 LCE in Q4 2026, it is not likely to have a significant impact on Li demand.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
All of the gains from 2026 are gone: Lithium prices in China have fallen by 50% since May. Lithium cycles are wild and becoming increasingly extreme. 🇨🇳🪫
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
The Bigger Lithium Picture:
If Texas is leading the renewable-energy revolution, perhaps the revolution is bigger than anyone thought.
We all know that Texas has long been synonymous with oil and gas. But the state is emerging as a leading force in battery energy storage in America- and the story isn't about environmental policy. It's about the bottom line 💲
The numbers tell the story:
🔋 19.7 GW installed — projected to reach 37 GW by 2027. By the end of Q1 2026, Texas's ERCOT grid had approximately 19.7 GW of utility-scale battery storage capacity, putting it ahead of every other U.S. state. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that battery storage capacity in ERCOT could reach 37 GW by the end of 2027, highlighting the scale of expected growth. (Sources: S&P Global; EIA)
📈 53% of planned U.S. battery storage additions in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that developers plan to add 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage nationwide in 2026. Texas accounts for 12.9 GW, compared with 3.4 GW in California and 3.2 GW in Arizona. These are planned additions, not completed installations. (Source: EIA, February 20, 2026)
🌬️ 28% of U.S. wind generation. Texas generated approximately 129,458 GWh of wind electricity in 2025 — more than any other state. (Source: Climate Central, using EIA data)
⚡ Growing electricity demand. ERCOT's electricity demand during January–September 2025 was 23% higher than during the same period in 2021. Wind and solar together met 36% of ERCOT's electricity demand during the first nine months of 2025. (Source: EIA, October 24, 2025)
So, what does this mean for BESS?
1. Storage is becoming an economic tool. Batteries can charge when electricity is inexpensive and discharge when prices rise. In a competitive electricity market like Texas, those price differences can create opportunities for storage operators to generate revenue.
2. The grid needs more flexibility. As electricity demand grows and wind and solar contribute significant amounts of power, battery storage can help balance supply and demand, respond quickly to changing grid conditions and provide electricity during periods of peak demand.
3. Investment is following market opportunities. Texas's planned battery additions suggest that developers see significant commercial potential in the state's electricity market. The scale of deployment highlights how economics, power demand and grid requirements are accelerating energy-storage investment.
What does this mean for lithium?
Reinforcing structural demand
#Lithium #BESS #EnergyStorage #TexasEnergy #CriticalMinerals
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
BREAKING: South Korea's stock market extends losses to over -8% on the day, triggering a level 1 circuit breaker.
Trading has been halted for 20 minutes amid the intense selling pressure.
A level 2 circuit breaker would occur next at a -15% drop.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
“Rio Tinto Group said lithium output for the full year would be at the lower end of guidance after weather impacted its operations in Argentina.
The Olaroz project will produce less of the battery metal from brine ponds due to rainfall, while its Fenix operation was also affected, Rio Tinto said in its third quarter report on Wednesday. Progress at its brine project under construction, Sal de Vida, has also been slower than expected”
Many of us were wondering, but I think @matt_fernley is the only one who asked the question.
batimes.com.ar/news/economy/…
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
A figure like this shows how broad the EV event is becoming in a way that it's difficult to otherwise! World ex-China/US/Europe becoming increasingly important.
NEW | EV Adoption is booming around the world
The Hormuz crisis once again revealed the risks of an energy system reliant on fossil fuels and countries are taking notice.
Growing EV fleets have saved oil importers more than $20 billion since the start of the war.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
China NEV retail sales fall 13% in October 1-11 as penetration slips to 61.2%
NEV retail penetration in October 1-11 was below September's 67.0%, while wholesale penetration rose to 78.1%. cnev.co/yYHS20T 👇
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
General Motors bids farewell to California's Lithium Valley open.substack.com/pub/climat…
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
I've not really bought into the China lithium price manipulation narrative up to now, but I'm afraid it's becoming increasingly hard to deny it. The price/inventory relationship has been one of the constants during my 25 years as a materials analyst. When it breaks down, there has to be something very big happening in a market. It's broken down in copper over the past 18 months and it's now broken down in lithium over the past several.
In copper, I can understand the move because of the perception that copper is entering structural scarcity - even if I don't agree with that narrative.
In lithium, I can't understand the move. Through all of the other situations when Western commentators have cried "price manipulation" in lithium, the price/inventory ratio has held true. But it's not happening now. How you can have a situation where inventories are falling to only weeks of supply but still have prices falling, even gapping down by over 10% earlier this week, defies belief. I understand that some Chinese analysts believe that the market will go into surplus next year. Some Western analysts believe that as well. But they're not calling for decade-long surpluses, like copper analysts are calling for decade-long deficits. That is not enough to justify current price action, in my view.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Slump of lithium prices driven by demand concerns put pressure on #lithiumstocks today.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Lots of questions about the negative GS piece on lithium. While GS' supply forecasting has been some of the best in the space, its medium- to longer-term demand forecasts have been structurally low. Hence they're regularly forecasting a surplus market when one may not occur...
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Sentiment on lithium has turned very negative, mostly on the back of unrelated bits of information. So let's talk numbers, not opinions. What do we actually know?
Demand. The hard data: China's battery production through August 2026 is up the equivalent of ~400kt LCE vs last year. If we carry only part of that growth through to year-end, Chinese batteries alone add at least ~500kt LCE of demand vs 2025.
Supply. Here the only hard data is exporters' trade statistics. Change vs 2025, in kt LCE (YTD Aug → full-year 2026F):
🇦🇺 Australia: +30 → +60
🇨🇱 Chile: +70 → +50
🇦🇷 Argentina: +30 → +65
🇧🇷 Brazil: -10 → -15
🌍 Africa: +50 → +65
🇨🇦 Canada: 0 → 0
🇨🇳 China: +40 → +70 (the softest number)
Total: +210 → ~+295
Even after adding the production that projects and producers have announced, 2026 supply growth comes to roughly 300kt. It's not much more than that. It can't be much more than that.
So for 2026:
Demand: +500kt
Supply: ~+300kt
Balance: a deficit of ~200kt LCE
The deficit is already here.
2027? The bears say demand will pull back. That's much harder to agree or disagree with. But the inventory drawdown happening right now will clearly push the market into deficit.
Figures and views are iLiMarkets' assessment.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
#Lithium Plunges 25% in China on Fears Over Battery Demand Growth
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
Recovery of #lithiumstocks after yesterday's slump, despite lithium spot prices and futures went down today.
Canadian Lithium 🇨🇦 retweeted
“The battery plan follows China's fifteenth five-year development plan for the intelligent connected NEV industry, which targets a 70% share for NEVs in domestic new passenger vehicle sales by 2030.
China plans to build a supply system centered on lithium batteries, complemented by sodium and flow batteries, while strengthening its ability to commercialize all-solid-state and ultrafast-charging batteries.
The document supports corporate mergers and restructuring and calls for faster exploration and development of domestic lithium, cobalt and other mineral resources.”
China unveils 5-year battery plan targeting large-scale all-solid-state use by 2030
China has prioritized breakthroughs in all-solid-state technologies to accelerate the roll-out of next-generation batteries. cnev.co/7kgAGD3 👇
