The Future of Money and Finance
Joined December 2022
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CaesarusO retweeted
When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined. We saw this with lithium batteries and solar, for example.
SpaceX is a rare counter-example, where its mass to orbit is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the rest of the world, BUT China now does a majority of non-SpaceX mass to orbit. SpaceX is an anomaly in the matrix.
Maybe RAM will be different, but RAM was a low margin commodity only ~3 years ago. LP5 and LP6 are designed to a common standard that China seems to be solving fast.
Newer HBM architectures and things like an SRAM layer below logic and 3D stacking RAM on top of logic while finding a way to keep the logic cooled will be harder to solve.
CaesarusO retweeted
What's crazier is the hackers apparently bought the reseller and made them sign a non-disclosure agreement to keep their mouth shut.
So many things wrong here...
JUST IN: UP CLOSE VIDEO SHOWS HOW HACKERS STOLE OVER $80,000,000 SILENTLY CORRUPTING LEDGER #BITCOIN WALLETS
A SCAM SHOP IN MALAYSIA WAS LISTED AS AN "OFFICIAL AUTHORIZED RESELLER FOR YEARS"
BEHIND THE SCENES, CRIMINALS WERE INSERTING MICROSCOPIC SPY CHIPS ON EVERY WALLET
THEY REPACKAGED THE DEVICE AND SHIPPED IT TO UNSUSPECTING VICTIMS
ALL THE WHILE IT WAS SILENTLY CAPTURING THEIR PRIVATE KEYS
THIS IS WILD ‼️
CaesarusO retweeted
bill ackman on why large, boring companies now drop 25% in a day, something he says almost never happened when he started:
"a quarter of every american business, plus or minus, is owned by some combination of vanguard, state street and northern trust. when you shrink the float of a public company, the marginal buyer and seller is going to have more impact on the stock price."
"the marginal buyer and seller today is a citadel or a millennium. they operate with a large amount of leverage, very large gross books, and they're increasingly short-term."
"most investors are very short-term focused because they're compensated that way. they won't invest in a company unless they're confident the price is going to be higher on december 31st."
passive owns the float, pods set the price, and both are structurally unable to hold through a bad quarter. that inability is the opportunity.
CaesarusO retweeted
7/8
Combined government and corporate interest costs are now 3.8% of GDP.
This is the highest since 2008 but only slightly above the 65-year average of 3.5%, and well below the 1990 peak of 5.9%.
CaesarusO retweeted
4/8
Let’s start by breaking down ALL debt/loans into 2 groups, government-linked (blue) and the private sector (orange).
Private sector debt peaked in Mar 2008, the Global Financial Crisis, and has been declining.
Government debt (blue) accelerated, also starting in Mar 2008.
The question is: would OpenAI and Anthropic’s IPO drag down the market with the BIG 7 being either their biggest client or the largest service provider?
Forcing the FED step in and stabilize the market, by delaying the supply-side inflation targeting?
CaesarusO retweeted
BREAKING: Palantir's Alex Karp says OpenAI will never IPO.
His theory: nationalization is the only real exit.
When asked what the S-1 risk factors look like, Karp's answer was simple: there is no S-1.
The liability exposure from frontier AI is so large that no public market can absorb it.
The only entity big enough to backstop it is a government.
If Karp is right, OpenAI doesn't become the next Google.
It becomes a utility. Or a weapon.
The most valuable AI company in the world may have no clean path to public markets.
Is nationalization actually the most likely outcome for frontier AI labs?
CaesarusO retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says the US government might take ownership stakes in OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies.
CaesarusO retweeted
Today, Treasury took unprecedented action against the A7 Network, a shadow banking network with ties to Russia used by the Iranian regime to evade sanctions as part of Operation Economic Outcast.
Treasury’s @FinCENnews proposed a rule that would prohibit transmittals of funds regarding transactions involving the A7 Network’s Sub-Agents.
Additionally, FinCEN issued an Alert to help financial institutions detect and report suspicious activity related to the A7 Network.
Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned the A7 Network as a significant transnational criminal organization.
home.treasury.gov/news/press…
CaesarusO retweeted
40 year story in a single chart. (In a sense Iran & Ukraine are also wars of paper vs commodities.)
CaesarusO retweeted
Anthropic IPO prospectus leaked to Reuters
Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming year, according to the prospectus.
The prospectus details how the company has grown sharply in the last year — while also posting wider losses. Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, even as the company lost more than $8 billion on an operating basis, excluding writedowns of various liabilities mostly tied to previous fundraising, according to the documents, reported here for the first time.
reuters.com/business/finance…
CaesarusO retweeted
Anthropic has filed for an IPO, with its prospectus seen by Reuters, potentially targeting a valuation above $2 trillion.
The listing is reportedly likely to come after the November U.S. midterm elections.
Some numbers behind that potential $2T valuation:
• FY25 revenue: $4.59B, up 1,088% YoY
• Operating loss: $8.06B
• Compute + infrastructure spend: $7.33B, up 190%
• Cash + short-term investments: $20.28B
• Future cloud, compute + infrastructure obligations: roughly $518B
At a $2T valuation, Anthropic would be valued at more than 400x its FY25 revenue.
The filing gives one of the clearest looks yet at what public markets may be asked to pay for frontier AI growth, and just how capital-intensive that race is becoming.
Source: Reuters
Anthropic has filed for an IPO, with its prospectus revealing just how fast the company is scaling.
FY25 revenue jumped 1,088% YoY to $4.59B, while compute and infrastructure spending rose 190% to $7.33B.
The company posted an $8.06B operating loss and ended 2025 with $20.28B in cash and short-term investments.
Anthropic’s two largest direct customers accounted for 24% of total revenue combined.
CaesarusO retweeted
.@POTUS hosts a Super Intelligence meeting at the White House 🇺🇸
CaesarusO retweeted
Japanese 10y bond rates: up 56% in a week!
Watch this closely: Japan could be the canary in the coal mine for the entire western debt bubble.
They be airdropping SPCX for Memecoin
Binance will support the SpaceX (SPCXB) airdrop for MarsCoin (MARSCOIN) holders, as well as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQB) airdrop for 牛来 (牛来) holders.
👉 binance.com/en/support/annou…
CaesarusO retweeted
INSIGHT: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce calls for a rethink of KYC and AML oversight.
She argues the "more data, the better" approach creates haystacks too big to find needles, and that zero-knowledge proofs could verify compliance without exposing personal data.
CaesarusO retweeted
Today, I had a productive call with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Our conversation built on President Trump’s discussion with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week and reflected the strength of the U.S.–Japan partnership.
We discussed the desirability of a strong yen that reflects Japan’s strong economic fundamentals, and the importance of staying in close communication on currency markets.
