CDM Capital (@CDMCapital) profile picture

CDM Capital

@CDMCapital

ATX/NYC-- Institutional Allocator, former PM and buy-side analyst. Top 50 ranked (60% CAGR) analyst on SumZero. DMs open

 Manhattan
Joined October 2010
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Interesting some big blocks bought on $TRIP, if I was on the board I would just run a process, sell the parts off & call it a day. SOTP probably worth $10-14 bucks. Viator is actually a pretty decent business, additional upside if this gets anywhere near a Getyourguide valuation.
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Someone named Ken is offering liquidity down here in the hole. No strings attached 😉
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Hearing rumors of issues/forced liquidations at Walleye, Lonepine, & quant shop Engineers Gate.
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Market not letting Arini out of positions, similar to Situational Awareness, market backdrop just keeps getting worse until a clearing event finalizes.
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Getting the sneaking suspicion that $META $ORCL $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT have been in a rush to raise capital before the entire credit market says, No Mas! Things starting to lock-up/freeze, & these mega-cap tech names are dumping even more supply on a crappy market. 😬🤮
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So, the sell-off was just Hamza blowing out his book? If this is true it explains a lot of the recent vol. & dispersion in credit.
RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) profile pictureRiverRoadPartners@partners_roadNov 1
“David Meneret of Mill Hill Capital has been focused on Arini’s outsized influence, noting that at peak they had nearly $15B in high yield exposure, levered 16:1 via CDS; i.e. they were long nearly 1/4th of the entire high yield market.” This is from @profplum99. His excellent
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This is wild, the hunter becomes the hunted...
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Buy on the close here might be interesting, given the tax loss selling from mutual funds combined w/ an extremely weak tape. $RDDT one of the worst among the tax loss selling baskets, including $CHTR & $LULU
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$INTC was one of the more crowded earnings trades of the Q, TMT PODs blowing out positions left & right after $GOOGL $AMZN. Intel should probably be down -15-20%, but de-grossing, & month end, no one wants it on the books. Maybe an opportunity coming into early November.
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The TomorrowXsummit.com taking place in Austin mid November is going to be like a tech Berkshire Hathaway lollapalooza. Pretty awesome list of speakers... Jensen, Lisa Su, Druckenmiller, Lip-Bu Tan, Lonsdale, Solomon, Rowan. 👏@GavinSBaker & Valor
TomorrowX Summit

TomorrowX Summit

Invite-only. Two days with the people who move TMT. November 17–18 · Moody Center.

tomorrowxsummit.com
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GTA 6 going to take a ton of viewership share next 6 months, I remember when Netflix cited losing share from Fortnite. GTA 6 is many multiples of Fortnite at least inside 6 months of a release. $TTWO
Trevor Scott (@TidefallCapital) profile pictureTrevor Scott@TidefallCapitalOct 26
$NFLX down to 17x 2027 PE as short form video and youtube take time share.
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Everyone talking about Anthropic's S-1, some things to like, but one thing to note, the street expectations were ~$20B on the Q, they came in at $16B. The lock-up will be interesting to say the least, one of the most convoluted & complex lock-ups ever.
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It's the best public school system in TX, they could easily charge $20k (or more).
ATX data (@data_atx) profile pictureATX data
@data_atxOct 26
Eanes ISD ( westlake high school in the Austin area ) is considering adding a $20k annual tuition for out of district transfer students They estimate that ~200 students would pay this. What a testament to the success of this ISD that they can charge this. No other district in Texas comes close. One board member said that 'price signals quality' and compared it to luxury fashion brands making sure to have a $1k handbag
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AI is so dangerous now you can't train models on the internet anymore. $SMH $QQQ $SPY
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Wild day in factor land!
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$SPCX stock up a ton before a huge lock-up expiration, debt selling off, potential $TSLA acquisition in the air, make it make sense... seems like we are in fantasy land
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Ken's coming for Leo yet again... Everyone knows it's a giant bubble, except the nouveau riche!
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$SPCX right before a massive lock-up it looks like Elon's going to dilute the crap out of shareholders. 😂🤣
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How is this not super bullish for $TTWO, likely implies GTA 6 Online released before EOY or early Q1 '27. For context, GTA 5's PC release was delayed over 1.5 years!
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$TTWO getting de-risked here at these levels, seems like a no brainer long here, maybe it hits $185-190, but that is back where the stock was with absolutely no clarity on GTA 6. Yet here we are about a month away from a release.
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