If we are trying to change a system, how do we know if the system is actually changing? A framework I use often in my change practice is the “Water of Systems Change” from @johnvkania & colleagues. It says that to understand the problems in a system, we should explore six interdependent “conditions” that typically hold the problem in place. These relate to structural conditions (policies, practices & resource flows), relational conditions (relationships/connections; power dynamics) & transformational conditions (mental models - the deeply held beliefs & assumptions that influence our actions). Now Drew Koleros & colleagues have produced a “Practical Guide to Evaluating Systems Change Efforts”, based on this framework. They translate the six conditions into levels of change. They conclude that efforts to measure whether a change intervention is actually making a difference will more often focus on surface level “structural changes”, because these explicit changes have established indicators & data sources. If we really want to know if a system is changing, we also need signs of change related to relational & transformational changes. These require deliberately developed indicators, multiple methods & validation with the people involved in the change, rather than being treated as secondary or invisible. Six actions for leaders of change who want to show their efforts are actually changing the system, based on the practical guide: 1) Map the system with the people in it. Agree its boundaries & check whose perspectives are missing, especially people with the least power. 2) Name where your change enters the system. Translate each entry point into the structural, relational & transformational changes you expect. Relationships & mental models" take longer to shift, so set timescales to match. 3) Co-design the signs of change. For each system change, ask those involved: what would it look like if this was changing? What would we expect to see? How would we know? People trust measures they helped to shape. 4) Pair leading & lagging signs. A leading sign of shifting power might be people reporting greater trust or influence. A lagging sign might be people with less formal power shaping decisions, visible in who speaks & who decides in key meetings. 5) Bring numbers & stories together. Performance data & staff surveys show the scale of change. Interviews & focus groups show what it means to the people living it. Make sense of the evidence together, continuously. 6) Review progress with a diverse group.Rrefine the signs as you learn, use a simple measure of progress (emerging, advancing, embedded) & share findings at regular points to adapt the work as it unfolds. It’s highly unlikely that one change initiative (or one team) will shift all six conditions alone. We will make the strongest case for impact if we describe our efforts, show what changed as a result, across multiple levels & draw plausible links to where the system is heading. Links and useful resources: The recent article from Medium that inspired my post titled “How Do You Know When a System Is Changing? : Measuring the signs of systems change” by Drew Koleros, Emmanuel Saint-Phard & Shu Phua: medium.com/@undp.innovation/…. Their “Practical Guide to Evaluating Systems Change Efforts”: drive.google.com/file/d/1-KI…. About the Water of System Change framework created by John Kania, Mark Kramer & Peter Senge: fsg.org/resource/water_of_sy… The Water of System Change Action Learning Exercise: dev-fsg-advisors.pantheonsit… (I use this exercise often with groups). An in depth video that explains the Water of System Change framework very effectively from @CIForumTweets : fsg.org/resource/water_of_sy….