ぶたまる🐽米国株投資

AI関連株は、まさに落ちるナイフですね。6月、10月にそれぞれピークを打ち、バブルが弾けている最中なのかもしれませんね。特にAI半導体株では、バリュエーションが急低下してます。

半導体株の売りが他のセクターにも波及していますね。マージンコールによる売りも重なり、下落が加速しています。これまでセクターローテーションが進み、比較的安全なディフェンシブ株が買われていたのに、今回はそこも全くダメですね。とにかく現金化を急ぐ流れになっています。 まあ、イラン情勢の緊張緩和への期待から、どこかで再び大きく反発するとは思いますが、中期的には戦略的にポジションを軽くしておいた方が良いかもしれませんね。（短期的ですが、個人的には、慎重に選定して少しづつ拾ってます）

#今日の米国株式相場まとめ #米国投資情報速報 さきほどから開票が始まりましたね。周りで投票所に行った人たちの話では、前回よりも空いていたようです。中間選挙ということもありますが、報道によると、今回は期日前投票が過去最多となったところも目立っていたようですね。また、選挙前から仕込んでいた株がすでに昨日から上がり始めていたり、賭けサイトでも昨日から今日にかけて、まるでオプション市場のように勝敗確率が急速にはっきり分かれてきました。 すでに開票が始まっていますが、序盤からブルーウェーブの勢いがすごいですね。最後まで待ってみないと分かりませんが、明日はセクターごとに明暗が分かれそうです。（ちなみにnoteでは、今回の選挙で影響を受けるセクターや銘柄について書きました）では、良い1日を😃 note.com/butamarukabu/n/n0a8… ぼかしなしを毎回見たい方はこちら(月390円）👇 note.com/butamarukabu/n/n0a8…

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

2024年にトランプが再選された時は、民主主義を否定されたようでショックだった。再選の大きな理由は「バイデンがインフレを起こした」という認識。コロナによる世界的な時間差インフレだったが、米国市民は因果関係よりも自分の財布を優先した。（今回もそうかもしれないが）

この騒動を起こした張本人ですよ。米国が何百年もかけて築き上げてきた民主主義の土台、選挙制度を壊そうとしたトランプ。罰せられることもなく、未だに「2020年は自分が勝った」と主張し続け、大統領の座にいる。

外見は80歳、中身は5歳児。自己顕示欲に取り憑かれたトランプに「NO」を突きつけた今回の選挙結果は、本当に涙が出るほど嬉しかった。米国だけでなく、世界までめちゃくちゃにしていたのだから。これは民主党や共和党の政策以前の問題だった。

歴史的な民主党の圧勝ですが、注目は共和党の敗北よりもMAGA候補の大敗。これまでトランプは「言うことを聞かないと対立候補を立てるぞ」と共和党議員を半ば脅してきましたが、今後はその脅しも効かなくなりそう。「トランプ様」と尻尾を振って従う必要がなくなるということですね。