
$BTC setups, execution and trading psychology from a full-time trader.
Joined December 2024
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One of the easiest ways to fool yourself in trading is to mistake a good outcome for a good decision.
You take an entry you normally wouldn’t touch, ignore your confirmation, or size up because you’re feeling confident. Price goes your way, you close in profit, and suddenly none of those decisions seem so bad anymore.
I’ve seen traders become more confident after a lucky win than after ten trades where they actually followed their plan.
The market doesn’t always punish bad decisions immediately. Sometimes it rewards them just enough to make you think you’ve figured something out.
The next time you take that same trade, you might not be so lucky.
$BTC
Still stuck in the range.
Nothing has changed, so I’m still sitting on my hands.
If you missed my trading plan, check the previous post.
$BTC
The downside scenario I outlined in the previous update has played out.
BTC has now moved back into the September breakout range, where price is consolidating again.
84K remains the main resistance on the upside. If buyers finally break through it, 85K becomes the next level to reclaim. Above that, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K.
I’m not looking to chase a long on a break of 84K. If BTC gets back to 87K, I’ll watch the reaction there for a potential short setup.
On the downside, BTC has closed back below the 4H 200 EMA again. The EMA has flattened out though, so a close above or below it carries less weight while price remains stuck in this range.
80K is still major support. If that breaks, I’d expect BTC to move into the 78K–77K area next.
Around that area, I’ll start looking for a potential long, depending on the reaction.
So for now, 84K and 80K are the main levels defining the range.
84K breaks → 85K → 87K → watch for a short.
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
No reason to force anything in the middle.
Once I take the trade, I'll share the entry, stop loss and trade management in real time on my new Telegram channel.
Join here for free: t.me/BullsBytesTrades
$BTC
The downside scenario I outlined in the previous update has played out.
BTC has now moved back into the September breakout range, where price is consolidating again.
84K remains the main resistance on the upside. If buyers finally break through it, 85K becomes the next level to reclaim. Above that, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K.
I’m not looking to chase a long on a break of 84K. If BTC gets back to 87K, I’ll watch the reaction there for a potential short setup.
On the downside, BTC has closed back below the 4H 200 EMA again. The EMA has flattened out though, so a close above or below it carries less weight while price remains stuck in this range.
80K is still major support. If that breaks, I’d expect BTC to move into the 78K–77K area next.
Around that area, I’ll start looking for a potential long, depending on the reaction.
So for now, 84K and 80K are the main levels defining the range.
84K breaks → 85K → 87K → watch for a short.
80K breaks → 78K–77K → watch for a long.
No reason to force anything in the middle.
You can finish green and still trade yourself into frustration.
I've seen plenty of traders finish a profitable week and still feel like they didn't do enough.
You close a trade too early, miss an entry, or watch price hit your original target after you've already taken profit. And somehow those are the moments you keep thinking about, even though you finished the week in the green.
It's easy to judge your trading by the money you could have made instead of the decisions you actually made.
There's always going to be more profit you could have squeezed out of a move.
But if you followed your plan, managed your risk, and finished the week profitable, what exactly are you beating yourself up about?
I've seen plenty of traders finish a profitable week and still feel like they didn't do enough.
You close a trade too early, miss an entry, or watch price hit your original target after you've already taken profit. And somehow those are the moments you keep thinking about, even though you finished the week in the green.
It's easy to judge your trading by the money you could have made instead of the decisions you actually made.
There's always going to be more profit you could have squeezed out of a move.
But if you followed your plan, managed your risk, and finished the week profitable, what exactly are you beating yourself up about?
Today I closed my BTC long in profit because the original thesis was no longer holding up.
I was sitting on a decent gain when price started moving against my expectations. Instead of holding on and risking giving it all back, I closed the position and took the profit.
Still finished the week profitable.
Yesterday I wrote about knowing when to close a trade once the original thesis no longer holds.
Today was a good example of putting that into practice.
I've seen so many traders spend way too much energy trying to rescue positions they probably should have closed.
The setup failed, price broke the level they were watching, and now they're looking for reasons to stay in. A bounce on the lower timeframe. A support level further down. Anything that makes holding feel like a reasonable decision.
I've got no problem holding a trade through a pullback when the original idea is still valid. But once that idea is gone, constantly looking for new reasons to stay in can become a pretty expensive habit.
You're still taking the risk, your capital is tied up, and half your attention is going into defending a trade you wouldn't even consider opening at the current price.
$BTC
I closed the long in profit after the failure to reclaim the 82.2K–82.8K zone and the move back below the 4H 200 SMA.
With the weekend coming up, I’d rather lock in another profitable week than force the trade.
I’ll start looking for the next setup again on Monday.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
Still on track.
Let’s see if $BTC can break 84K today.
$BTC is testing the 4H 200 EMA again.
If it holds into the 4H close, I’d expect another move toward 84K next.
84K has been strong resistance, but if BTC finally breaks through it, 87K becomes the next target, which is also the main target for the long I shared earlier.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
I've seen so many traders spend way too much energy trying to rescue positions they probably should have closed.
The setup failed, price broke the level they were watching, and now they're looking for reasons to stay in. A bounce on the lower timeframe. A support level further down. Anything that makes holding feel like a reasonable decision.
I've got no problem holding a trade through a pullback when the original idea is still valid. But once that idea is gone, constantly looking for new reasons to stay in can become a pretty expensive habit.
You're still taking the risk, your capital is tied up, and half your attention is going into defending a trade you wouldn't even consider opening at the current price.
$BTC is testing the 4H 200 EMA again.
If it holds into the 4H close, I’d expect another move toward 84K next.
84K has been strong resistance, but if BTC finally breaks through it, 87K becomes the next target, which is also the main target for the long I shared earlier.
Be sure to FOLLOW ME so you don’t miss any updates.
$BTC just closed back above the 4H 200 EMA after sweeping 80K.
Exactly as planned.
Both adds to the long were timed perfectly.
The trade is running hot now.
$BTC moved into the 80K area during the Asian session, just as I shared yesterday.
That’s where I added to the long, exactly as planned in the earlier update.
For now, 80K is still holding as major support.
$BTC has closed below the 4H 200 EMA, with the previous 4H candle closing around 81.5K.
Losing the 82.2K–82.8K area and the 4H 200 EMA on a confirmed 4H close could bring 80K back into play, as mentioned in the previous update. That scenario is now developing.
Price is currently retesting the 4H 200 EMA from below and, for now, getting rejected there. A real confirmation of that rejection would be another 4H close below this EMA.
If that happens, it will increase the chance of another move into the 80K area, which is the major support below. As mentioned earlier, if BTC gets there and 80K holds again, I’d see that as a good opportunity to add to my long.
A move into 80K followed by a 4H close below the previous low around 81K would print a lower low and further weaken the short-term structure.
If 80K then fails to hold and BTC starts building acceptance below it, the 77K–78K area becomes important again. Those levels still haven’t been properly retested since the September breakout, so I’d expect that area to matter a lot if price continues lower.
A reclaim back above the 4H 200 EMA would improve the bullish picture and make 84K the next level to challenge again.
So far, 84K has proven to be strong resistance, but every test weakens it. The more often BTC tests the level, the more likely it is to break. If it breaks, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K, which is still my main target.
As long as price stays below the 200 EMA, I’d expect BTC to move toward the 80K–81K zone next.
It's funny how quickly people dismiss something they haven't taken the time to understand.
You see it in trading all the time. Someone tries a new strategy or tool, gets a few bad results, and decides it's useless. Never bothered learning how it works, when it's useful, or what its limitations are.
Of course, some approaches genuinely aren't worth using. But there's a difference between something that doesn't work and something you haven't figured out how to use properly.
A few bad trades might tell you something about the approach.
They might also tell you something about how you're using it.
$BTC has closed below the 4H 200 EMA, with the previous 4H candle closing around 81.5K.
Losing the 82.2K–82.8K area and the 4H 200 EMA on a confirmed 4H close could bring 80K back into play, as mentioned in the previous update. That scenario is now developing.
Price is currently retesting the 4H 200 EMA from below and, for now, getting rejected there. A real confirmation of that rejection would be another 4H close below this EMA.
If that happens, it will increase the chance of another move into the 80K area, which is the major support below. As mentioned earlier, if BTC gets there and 80K holds again, I’d see that as a good opportunity to add to my long.
A move into 80K followed by a 4H close below the previous low around 81K would print a lower low and further weaken the short-term structure.
If 80K then fails to hold and BTC starts building acceptance below it, the 77K–78K area becomes important again. Those levels still haven’t been properly retested since the September breakout, so I’d expect that area to matter a lot if price continues lower.
A reclaim back above the 4H 200 EMA would improve the bullish picture and make 84K the next level to challenge again.
So far, 84K has proven to be strong resistance, but every test weakens it. The more often BTC tests the level, the more likely it is to break. If it breaks, I’d expect another rotation toward 87K, which is still my main target.
As long as price stays below the 200 EMA, I’d expect BTC to move toward the 80K–81K zone next.
$BTC is consolidating above 83K.
This is a momentum reset before another big move.
87K is still the target.
Bitcoin has a funny way of making people forget what they believed.
A 10% rally and everyone's talking about new all-time highs. A 10% drop and suddenly it's all over.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still Bitcoin.
The supply is still capped at 21 million. The network keeps producing blocks. No central authority can simply decide to print more Bitcoin.
None of that changes because price had a bad week.
You can change your outlook when the market gives you a reason to. But if every move changes your entire thesis, you might be paying more attention to the candles than to what you're actually holding.
Zoom out.
Sometimes a trade looks so good that you struggle to imagine it going wrong.
You've got your entry and target planned, everything looks right, and then price goes against you anyway.
It happens. Even when you've done your homework, you can still get stopped out.
The problem is when you're so sure about the trade that you start making excuses to stay in. You move your stop a little further, give price more room, or even add to the position because you still think you're right.
And now you've turned a perfectly normal loss into a much bigger problem.










